Coronavirus vaccine: when will the pandemic end and will vaccination be effective?

In recent weeks, two coronavirus vaccines have passed the final stage of clinical trials at the same time. This news inspires optimism in all countries, which are covered by a new wave of infections. About when the epidemic will end and whether the long-awaited vaccine will become a panacea, in the RBC-Ukraine material.

Last week, many foreign media outlets wrote about the so-called “anniversary” of the coronavirus. The first case of SARS-CoV-2 infection was reported in China on November 17 last year. Four months later, the infection took everyone hostage and turned into a pandemic.

For the year, according to official statistics, the coronavirus was found in almost 60 million people. For 1.4 million of them, the illness caused by the virus was fatal.

The medical systems of even the most developed countries were disarmed by a new disease. In anticipation of vaccines, authorities in countries around the world are forced to extinguish the rampant epidemic, introducing strict quarantine restrictions. Its side effects take a toll on the economy.

The pandemic has gone beyond a medical problem and has affected all areas of life. And how long will you have to live with that rhythm? Will this virus stay with us forever? Will the vaccine that everyone trusts be effective?

Shock wave

With the beginning of fall, outbreaks of COVID-19 began to register again in many countries. The Ministry of Health believes that the period of high incidence of the coronavirus in Ukraine will last until approximately April 2021.

Andriy Slavutsky, head of UNICEF’s health programs in Ukraine, notes that the country is now only at the beginning of an increase in incidence. According to him, within a week or two, the epidemic wave will be so powerful that no system, especially in Ukraine, will be able to cope with it.

There are four levels of stricter quarantine measures that need to be introduced the other day, Slavutsky says. Otherwise, the entire health system, which is already putting up with its last strength, will simply suffocate with the influx of patients.

“Most likely with this epidemic growth, if nothing is done, we will peak in January-February. Then the incidence should decrease, hopefully by March-April. But if there are very effective anti-epidemic measures, then this wave can already be shot down in December, “Slavutsky told RBK-Ukraine.

Many scientists and doctors have previously predicted that the rampant coronavirus will coincide with the epidemic season for influenza and other acute respiratory illnesses. We have this epidemic season from October to April.

It is true that in Ukraine, the seasonal factor of the coronavirus did not work or was simply not recorded in the incidence statistics. Since March, the dynamics of new infections have only increased. Not surprisingly, experts continue to argue about when the first wave of the epidemic in the country ended and the second began. And whether it started or not.

Of course, there may be other explanations for this. For example, the figures showed only what the test system’s capacity could cover at the time. And since there were big issues with test availability before, we couldn’t see any noticeable decline.

“We assumed that the incidence rate would decrease in the summer, but we have it going up. And we actually have the first wave. Whereas we could have a vaccine in the second trimester (April-June) and then we’ll start vaccinating people – so yes, it can affect the epidemic “, – said the publication of the head of the Department of Epidemiology NMU. Bogomolets, Doctor of Medicine Irina Kolesnikova.

The main hopes of a recession or, better yet, the end of the epidemic, not only in Ukraine, but around the world, are associated with the appearance of a vaccine. But the vaccines won’t start until later this year. In Ukraine, about the middle of next year, and will end, in the end, the director of AV National Academy of Sciences Palladin of Ukraine, Doctor of Biological Sciences Sergey Komissarenko.

“I think vaccines will work, and in the end the viral infection will decrease from 2022,” suggested the academic in a conversation with RBC-Ukraine.

At the same time, Andriy Slavutsky believes that a more realistic scenario is if Ukraine receives the vaccine in the third quarter of next year.

According to the medical epidemiologist, head of the NGO “Infection Control in Ukraine” Andrei Alexandrin, with the most favorable result, the incidence of coronavirus infection will decrease in June 2022. And as long as vaccination actually begins in Ukraine at least in fall 2021.

“If there is no vaccination, then, unfortunately, herd immunity, which many initially relied on, will not occur. Studies show that those who have had COVID-19 antibodies disappear after 2-3 months. Therefore, a person he can get sick again as many times as necessary. ” – the expert pointed to the publication.

Arms race

In early November, the US company Pfizer and the German company BioNTech announced the successful trial of a jointly developed vaccine against COVID-19. Its efficiency was 95%. By the end of this year, developers will release about 50 million doses, next year – 1.3 billion.

A week later, another American company, Moderna, announced the completion of trials of a vaccine with almost the same efficacy: 94.5%. It plans to ship approximately 20 million doses of the vaccine to the United States by the end of this year. And launch up to 1 billion doses for sale in 2021. Both vaccines require a cycle of two injections.

Four more vaccines, according to the World Health Organization, are also in the third phase of clinical trials. But there are still many questions about how much they will help suppress the epidemic. And how resistant will be the immunity to the virus.

According to scientists, the immune response can be different in strength and duration. But still, most believe it will be fairly stable, Sergei Komissarenko said.

Immunity from the first SARS and MERS lasted for about two to three years, the expert says. Of the other less pathogenic coronavirus infections that cause acute respiratory infections in people, immunity typically lasts for several months, up to a year.

There are already quite a few cases where people get positive PCR tests for COVID-19 several months after the first infection. Some claim that they have contracted the virus for even the third time. At WHO, repeated positive test results for coronavirus are explained by remnants of the virus that settled in the lungs.

In this case, repeated infections are also possible. In mid-October, there were 23 such cases in the world, when scientists investigated that the second positive test was caused by a new infection.

“These cases of reinfection were confirmed by comparing the genome structure (by sequencing) of viruses that infect people, first and again. But there were not as many actual reinfections yet. Second, the first disease causes an immune response in humans, and therefore a second disease should be much less serious than the first, “Komissarenko explained.

Insidious mutants

Even if vaccines are effective for at least a period of several months, up to six months, up to a year, this is a very serious factor in fighting a pandemic, says Andrei Slavutsky. After all, you can increase the doses, vaccinate several times. But another concern for doctors and scientists comes down to how the virus will continue to behave.

Experts are alarmed that the coronavirus, in theory, could join a cohort of other seasonal viral infections. And the vaccine itself may not have a lifelong effect.

“Due to the fact that mutations will occur with the virus, it is feared how much they may affect the course of the pandemic and the fight against it. There are too many unknowns to predict whether it will be in line with the seasonal diseases against which it will be possible to be vaccinated each year. Or we can get over it forever, at least in 2022, “Slavutsky said.

The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is an RNA virus and it mutates quite quickly, says Andrei Alexandrin. This complicates the task of vaccination.

“For example, influenza vaccines are administered annually for one hemisphere or another, according to the recommendations of the World Health Organization. I can assume that, most likely, we will have to make vaccines for those strains of SARS-CoV- 2 that will circulate. This will complicate things. ” – admitted the epidemiologist.

Irina Kolesnikova also draws an analogy with the influenza virus. She believes that for the coronavirus, the composition of the vaccine will have to be changed annually and vaccinated again.

“The hope for the vaccine is certainly great. Studies that have been completed show that it is effective. But more data will become available when many more people are vaccinated; we call this a post-marketing study. For example, the flu vaccine is quite effective, it protects against disease. And even if a person is sick, then the course itself is much easier, “explained the professor.

Although, according to Komissarenko, the mutations that are now occurring in the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus are not related to its peak protein: the protein peak. It plays a critical role in binding the virus to human target cells. And it is against him that most vaccines are directed, said the academic.

“Therefore, I believe, and most scientists believe so, that the vaccines created now will continue to work for at least a year,” said the director of the Institute of Biochemistry of the National Academy of Sciences.

Even with an effect of one year, the logic of vaccination will be to interrupt all possible chains of transmission. In this case, with organized and mass vaccination, it will even be possible to completely eradicate the coronavirus.

But even this can cause problems. According to experts, to suppress the epidemic, more than 70% of the population must be vaccinated. Whereas, according to opinion polls, about half of Ukrainians are against vaccination. And this is another challenge for the government not only of Ukraine, but also of other countries in the world.

“When we talk about vaccine-preventable infections, if more than 11% of the population is not immune, then there are conditions for the spread of the virus. But how realistic it is to vaccinate more than 80% of the population will be problematic,” said Irina Kolesnikova.