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The National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine predicts a drop in the incidence of coronavirus in the country until the end of December. According to one of the forecasts of the National Academy of Sciences, as of December 28 there will be a little more than 2,000 new cases per day.
The forecast was published on the website of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
Facebook Prophet’s statistical model shows that the incidence of the coronavirus in Ukraine will decrease in two weeks. The National Academy of Sciences predicts that on December 28, the number of new cases per day will be about 2,356.
“The rapid decrease in the predicted values of the number of new patients, unfortunately, does not give confidence that said dynamics will continue for several more weeks, since the number of observations is too small for such predictions, so it is recommended to use the forecast carefully, “the NAS said.
Furthermore, the SEIR-U compartment model also predicts a decrease in incidence, but not as dramatic. Thus, as of December 28, according to the forecast, 7,552 cases of coronavirus will be registered in the country.
“It should be noted that the prediction error increases significantly with increasing prediction interval, therefore the results obtained should be treated with caution,” said NAS.
Recall that during the last day in Ukraine around 6.5 thousand new cases of coronavirus were registered. At the same time, there is a decrease in the number of PCR tests performed.
We add that the Kiev School of Economics predicted up to 33 thousand deaths from coronavirus in Ukraine by the end of 2020.
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