Closure in Ukraine: when a strict quarantine will be introduced across the country

The Ukrainian government has begun developing a plan to introduce strict quarantine restrictions in relation to the coronavirus pandemic.

Full quarantine in Ukraine may be introduced in December due to the spread of the coronavirus. The government is already actively developing a plan to counter the pandemic, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said. Correspondent.net tells you when to wait for a full crash.

Weekend quarantine: results and estimates

Until the cure for the COVID-19 coronavirus infection has been found and the vaccine has not entered mass circulation, the only way to cut the chain of spread of the coronavirus is to reduce social contacts. This is the main argument in favor of the blockade.

In Ukraine, a weekend quarantine has been in effect since mid-November: on Saturdays and Sundays, the rules that apply in the orange zone apply to all of Ukraine.

Shopping and entertainment centers, gyms, beauty salons, cultural institutions, and manufactured goods stores are down. Bars, cafes, restaurants and other catering establishments operate with restrictions.

The prime minister called the weekend quarantine a balanced option: the Ukrainian economy, according to him, will not withstand a complete lockdown.

At the same time, Denis Shmygal admitted that such restrictions are also painful for companies. This option is criticized by both experts and businessmen, in detail in the material What is a blockade.

Two weekend closings have already passed. Until November 14, about 11 thousand new cases of coronavirus were registered in Ukraine.

Despite the restrictions, the number of new infections per day continues to increase: on November 20 and 21, more than 14.5 thousand infected were detected. Fewer tests run on weekends, so no statistics are provided for today.

However, on November 23, the chief health doctor Viktor Lyashko, in a conference call with the participation of President Vladimir Zelensky, who recovered from COVID-19, announced the stabilization of the weekly dynamics of the incidence of the coronavirus in Ukraine.

“The weekend lockdown and additional security measures are paying off. We must do everything we can to avoid a total lockdown. So far, the statistics show that we are managing to curb projected growth,” Zelensky said.

Almost 28,000 patients are in hospitals with coronavirus, according to government data. The dynamics of hospitalizations have been stable for the past two weeks, authorities say.

At the same time, the head of the Ministry of Health, Maxim Stepanov, during a briefing on November 23, said that the number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 has increased in Ukraine. During the past week, there were 10,597 of them against 9,653 the week before the previous one.

“(In a week – ed.) We received exactly 90 thousand confirmed cases of COVID in the country. This is almost 14 thousand more than the previous week, when there were 76,221 cases, respectively,” he said.

Stepanov noted that the effect of the weekend quarantine will be assessed closer to December 1.

The chief doctor of the Interior Ministry hospital, Yuri Sak, also says that the number of patients with severe COVID-19 illness at his medical center is increasing.

Only the tightening of quarantine measures can reduce the growth of infected people in Ukraine, he said. Sak, who was among a group of volunteer Ukrainian doctors who went to Italy in search of experience, noted that the strict quarantine that was introduced in this country in the spring paid off and managed to stem the wave of morbidity.

“As a result, we have an increase in severe cases, and what I see in my hospital, we actually see an increase in severe cases. And the death rate inevitably increases. What we see in the last two or three weeks : From my hospital I can say that during this time, there has been an increase in the number of patients with complicated forms, ”Savik Shuster said on the air Freedom of expression.

To reduce the increase in morbidity, it is necessary to break the chain of contacts, and the weekend quarantine “is not even half”.

“More drastic measures must be taken. Tighter. [По сравнению с тем] what we observed in Italy in the spring, the quarantine that was there, today the weekend quarantine is not even a quarantine. These are just some restrictions on the work of some establishments. This is not even half of what happened in Italy, ”he said.

Analysts at the Kiev School of Economics are also calling for a full-blown lockdown. They call this movement the only way to avoid the collapse of the health system.

Already a third of hospitals specializing in treating COVID-19 patients are critically full, according to KSE experts in their analytical note.

“In 89 hospitals, the beds allocated for COVID-19 patients are 100 percent full. Another 97 are very overloaded,” said the monitoring results, released by CSE experts on November 19.

Without an immediate full quarantine, the peak load on hospitals will begin in December, economists say.

“In Ukraine, it is precisely high-oxygen intensive care beds and beds in intensive care units equipped with ventilators that are missing,” says the KShE study.

However, a total lockdown in Ukraine will help bring the epidemic under control in a month, on the condition that more coronavirus tests are carried out, analysts from the Kiev School of Economics say.

Now, experts say, none of Ukraine’s regions comply with the World Health Organization’s recommendations that the level of positive tests should not exceed five percent. In Ukraine, this figure is now equal to 30 percent, they say in the KSE.

Judging by the polls, Ukrainians do not support the idea of ​​introducing a blockade. Although 55 percent of respondents believe that strict quarantine can improve the situation with incidence, only 36 percent of respondents are in favor of its actual introduction, while 61 percent are against such a step.

Almost half of Ukrainians, 48 ​​percent, consider the current quarantine measures in the country to be optimal. At the same time, 24 percent are convinced that the restrictions are too soft and 11 percent too tight.

When the confinement

Health Minister Maxim Stepanov said on November 20 that he would demand that the government introduce a stricter quarantine in Ukraine, when 30,000 patients will be registered daily.

“For us, the main thing is the number of people who are hospitalized. If we talk about the percentage of patients admitted to the hospital, I think this is already in the order of more than 30 thousand per day in a given period, then this can cause serious problems with the load on the medical system. ” – he is stressed.

On November 22, Shmygal said that the government is already actively developing a new plan to counter the pandemic.

“I am sure that the measures introduced (weekend quarantine – ed.) Will have a positive effect on the dynamics of the disease. In case of worsening of the scenario, plan B is being developed. Yesterday I said that we began to discuss this plan to that the whole country has a clear idea of ​​it. ” wrote on his Facebook page.

As part of the development of Plan B, the government met with mayors and representatives of the church. Also last week, the Cabinet of Ministers discussed with Ukraine’s trade mechanisms to support the industries most affected by the severe restrictions.

“An additional 870 million UAH has been allocated to city budgets to improve oxygen supply to hospitals. A billion has already been allocated for the purchase of six million rapid tests, which will be received by family doctors and teams. ambulance. We are actively negotiating the purchase of an effective and safe vaccine, “said Shmyhal.