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The problem of supplying fresh water to Russian-occupied Crimea in 2021 will be further aggravated. However, there are two ways to reduce its severity, as well as two “bonuses” for Ukraine.
Ordinary Russians must be collectively responsible for their state’s aggression against Ukraine. And the “Crimean Platform” will not be enough to liberate the peninsula: real economic steps are needed from Kiev.
The doctor of law, former permanent representative of the President of Ukraine in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, Boris Babin, told this in a lightning interview with OBOZREVATEL.
– President Zelensky recently announced that in the event of an offensive by the Russian Federation from the territory of occupied Crimea, a general mobilization in Ukraine will be announced. How do you assess the danger of such an attack?
– If the Supreme Commander-in-Chief talks about those steps, if national and foreign experts talk about those steps, perhaps they have reasons for a public discussion about it.
I would not yet assess the depth of these risks, but if they exist, the main thing is to focus on preparing a response to provocations, possible pressure, blackmail, bribery, threats. Russia can prepare some action and intimidate us.
– Intimidate with what?
– For example, release information that they are preparing large-scale actions. Perhaps terrifying with sanctions, new restrictions, escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine.
We also heard statements from the occupation authorities in Crimea that they would allegedly confiscate Ukrainian properties from their respective owners. Considering that there are a significant number of powerful businesses influencing leadership and officials who have real estate in Crimea, it will be painful for each of them personally.
– To solve the problem of providing fresh water to Crimea, the occupation authorities have already tried to drill wells, they planned to organize the desalination of sea water and the creation of artificial sediments. So far there are no positive results. In your opinion, will they look for new ways or will they increase pressure on Ukraine to resume its water supply through the Northern Crimean canal?
– They have options to reduce the tension in the situation. The first and foremost is the end of the artificial resettlement of Russians in Crimea… If you have relocated half a million peopleobviously this increases the load on the network.
The second is to put things in order in the water distribution systems. Now huge water resources are lost there, about 50% of the water. But this is real money, it is an investment necessity, and Russia is unlikely to agree to this.
Today we see that the main actions in Crimea to find water come down to military measures. The wells are drilled with the help of their own Ministry of Defense, military workers, that is, free labor. Let’s be honest – ancient Egyptian methods. They are not capable of more.
This can ease tension in Sevastopol and Simferopol. In the rest of the territory, will not make significant efforts to supply water.
For desalination, of course, they can supply desalination plants. But there are several challenges. The first is technology, the second is the extremely high cost of the water obtained, the third is a high price for all humanity, because as a result of desalination, brine is formed, which must be poured somewhere. They openly declare that they will throw it into the sea. that there will be an ecological disaster.
Artificial precipitation is difficult to comment seriously. This is PR. There are several factors here. To do artificial precipitation, chemical compounds are used that are pulverized. And they are not so safe. This is not very good for the population that will use that water. Second, man-made precipitation can cause mountain mudflows, channel changes, and the like.
– What’s next, what is your forecast for 2021 on the problem of drinking water in Crimea?
– Then everything will be more or less the same. Regardless of the level of precipitation next year, the reservoirs will not be able to fill to normal levels because they are critically depleted. It is a challenge. The water shortage will be chronic.
However, this means two positive things for us. The first is to limit the resettlement of colonialists in Crimea. There will be fewer reasons for Russians to come to Crimea – voluntarily or compulsorily. This is the main advantage.
The second advantage is Reduce the opportunities to militarize the peninsula., for the development of military infrastructure, in particular – nuclear. The lack of water stops all his plans.
– According to opinion polls by the Russian “Levada Center”, the number of Russian citizens who are proud of the occupation of Crimea dropped to 30%. At the same time, this event remains one of three that Russians are proud of. Ukraine for them ranks second after the United States on the hostile list. Do you think that those feelings of the Russians are one of the reasons why Crimea is difficult to vacate?
– In general, under any circumstances, it is very naive to expect such things to be done voluntarily.
There is such a category: collective responsibility. When one of the Russians asks why there are such sanctions against Russia, why such punishments, I mean: dear, this is your behavior, and not just the behavior of officials. You cannot say that someone has done something. You supported this. Therefore, the negative consequences apply to you.
This position gives us the right to demand collective punishment, punishment from both officials and the state.
– So perhaps, isn’t it worth as much dealing with Putin about the return of Crimea as working with the minds of ordinary Russians?
– No. This is absolutely useless. You can say what you want to the leaders or the population, but no one will agree. Point. Such things are returned only by force.
Russia ever wanted to withdraw its troops from Germany, did it want to give to Germany? Did the Russians support it? Probably not. But it happened and it had to be done. It’s the same here.
– What is your prognosis? When will Crimea return to Ukraine?
– He will come back some time after we start doing this. If we haven’t started doing this yet, then we shouldn’t expect this to happen.
Now we have denial phase… We are making statements, we are taking political and legal steps, that is correct. But for now I I don’t see any real action… When they take place, it will be possible to turn on this calculator.
– “Crimean Platform” is not a live action?
– This is correct, this is important. But this is an example of the denial phase. What will be brought to the “Crimean platform”? Most likely, it is precisely the policy of non-recognition of the attempted annexation. We must oppose Russia, which follows a policy of recognition of the “reunification” of Crimea.
The second is the preservation of sanctions. It can also be brought to the “Crimean Platform” as a means of increasing pressure. I don’t know what else will happen.
– Does the Crimean Platform bring us closer to the return of Crimea?
– The “Crimean Platform” removes Russia from fulfilling its task of completing the annexation, that is, its recognition.
This is a two player competition and it is important to keep up with this competition. Extremely important. But whether this will bring unemployment closer is another question, because this requires real steps.
Let’s start with the simplest. We still have a law on a free economic zone in Crimea. In fact, with this law, we are helping Russia in the economic provision of Crimea. As long as this law is in effect, any talk about unemployment is just talk.
We have beneficiaries who have a big business in Crimea and nobody bothers them. Although it will be, all that is said about unemployment is talking. The economy is war, the war is economy. As long as we allow the powerful Ukrainian businessmen to make mighty fortunes in Crimea, all this will remain mere rhetoric.
