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On September 29, the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market rose 5 kopecks and stopped at 28.3250-28.34 UAH / $. But the lockers did not react to this. Average cash rates remained in the ranges:
- 28.35-28.45 UAH / $ – on sale;
- 28.10-28.25 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Financiers notice a small demand for currency by the population.
Naftogaz vs. Citibank
In interbank trade, the volume of operations grew from 130 million dollars to 151 million dollars.
Two players dominated. The top seller for the second day in a row was NJSC Naftogaz. The National Bank did not sell anything: it listed at 28.33 UAH / $, but did not make any deals. Citibank remained the main buyer. Foreigners bribed the dollar both in the morning and in the afternoon. They say it was they who finally raised the dollar.
“The alignment in the market is reminiscent of yesterday, it can be called balanced. Naftogaz managed to cover the interbank demand for the dollar. The metallurgists hardly sold foreign currency, the agricultural companies traded more or less normally. The National Bank again managed to save reserves, which which is important given the recent large spending on state debt “, – financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky commented to” Strana “about market sentiment.
September, most likely, will become a record in 2020 in terms of reduction of the gold and foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank. According to various estimates, its size may immediately decrease by $ 2.7 billion (to $ 26.3 billion): about $ 2.5 billion will be spent on state debt payments and about $ 200 million on sales in the interbank market. Only a small amount will be covered by the placement of government bonds denominated in dollars.
Therefore, everyone expects the regulator to continue saving the dollar.
“We are going to go up to 28.5 UAH / $. Tomorrow is the close of the month and the quarter. Most likely, the National Bank will try to maintain the rate for reports. But the prospects in the market remain devalued,” Andrey said Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department, in a conversation with Strana. …
“The hryvnia burns the hands”
The government continues to buy new issues of debt securities very reluctantly, especially in the hryvnia. Today’s placement of the Ministry of Finance was another confirmation of this. Officials were able to attract only UAH 2 billion to the state budget. Banks took mainly short-term securities, which is confirmed by the sales structure of new government bonds:
- 6 months: 1.9 billion UAH at 8% per annum;
- 12 months – UAH 25 million at 9.5% per annum;
- 24 months – for UAH 88.4 million at 10.5% per annum.
Disappointing result for the government, which is due tomorrow to pay 9.6 billion UAH in government bonds in 2018, of which:
- 8.2 billion UAH: repayment of government bonds;
- 1.4 billion UAH: coupon (interest).
Large repayments are usually preceded by a large placement of new government bonds, but this did not happen today. This can put pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate, if the large payments fall on foreigners, who will buy the dollar even more on the interbank market.
“The free hryvnia will burn hands and the mood will tend towards a more secure currency. Not counting the planned and unplanned (disappointed) departure of non-residents,” says Andriy Shevchishin.
They don’t want to give cash
Today’s topic was the issuance of the hryvnia through the government bond market. National Bank Council Member Vitaly Shapran said that the NBU can buy back hryvnia government bonds on the secondary market to help the Finance Ministry fill the state budget, if necessary. How exactly this will be done is not fully understood. They don’t want to do the same thing as in spring and summer: refinance the banks so that bonds can be bought. Think of new mechanisms.
“It is necessary to organize a civilized secondary market for government bonds, which does not exist now. If there are proper rules, reliable market makers and the support of the regulator, we can get a liquid market. Then, perhaps, foreign capital will come out of him less actively. In addition, investment firms and banks need a stable source of income “, – said Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
At the same time, you need to understand that purchases of government bonds by the National Bank may result in an increase in the issuance of hryvnia, and this will drive the growth of inflation.
“The Finance Ministry also noted that issuance accelerates inflation and prices will rise. The pressure on the hryvnia will be proportional to issuance. Most likely, we have already exhausted the safe issuance volume or are close to it,” he says Andriy Shevchyshyn.
The second topic of the day is the tightening of banks in terms of working with cash. They say that many have stopped giving large sums to entrepreneurs and individuals.
“This has become a widespread phenomenon: banks have stopped issuing large amounts of cash from accounts. Also, even if the customer has passed financial control and everything is in order with the documents. They openly say: they are ready to transfer funds to an account in another bank, let them issue cash, we are not talking about large amounts of a million and more. They do not issue neither hryvnia nor currency, although they can earn a lot of money from cash services. Nobody wants the National Bank be aware of large cash transactions, “said the director of the bank treasury.
What will happen next with the course?
Taking into account the large amortization of government bonds, a new rise in the price of the dollar in the interbank market is expected tomorrow. The start of trading is expected in the range of 28.31-28.35 UAH / $, and then – a movement of 28.37 UAH / $ or even 28.40 UAH / $. Everything will depend on the activity of foreigners in the purchase of the dollar and the generosity of Naftogaz in the sale.
It is not ruled out that bank speculations will intensify at the end of the month. By the way, there is a persistent rumor in the forex market that a narrow circle of “gray market makers” has already formed in the interbank market, starting to chase currencies when it is necessary to change the hryvnia / dollar exchange rate and earn money with the difference in the quotes.
This is called “goat driving.” That is, buying / selling currencies with each other without financial need. Just to rock the dates. Four banks are said to be involved in this, but their names have yet to be announced.
“The names are probably known to the National Bank. And if I had wanted, I would have had an explanatory conversation a long time ago, and left everything. This is a conceptual story. Otherwise, it will not be closed, because formally no one violates any rules and there is no nothing to attract. – three times to lead these four to a big loss (the NBU knows how to do it with market mechanisms), and it would also work “, – said in an interview with” Strana “, the vice president of the board of one of the banks.
Shot in Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil
The euro exchange rate on the world market on September 29 rose steadily: it went from $ 1.156 / € to $ 1.1736 / € after trading between $ 1.1661-1.1744 / €.
Investors tossed the dollar and bought euros amid aggravated political risks: the season of noisy political statements and debates begins in the United States on the eve of the presidential elections. At the same time, financial markets are awaiting the release of basic US macroeconomic statistics this week: on GDP and on unemployment.
Another part of investors pumped their capital to alternative markets in search of speculative gains. In particular, there was an increase in demand for government bonds from Mexico, Indonesia and Brazil. In Asia, they were interested in investments in the Chinese yuan, the South Korean won and the Taiwanese dollar.
The overvaluation of the dollar was discussed again: the Swiss bank Lombard Odier announced that the real price of the US currency was 10-15% lower.
But all of this referred to relatively quiet times in global finance. Faced with the first shocks, experts expect a revival of interest in the US currency.
“If the world economy slips back into recession, it will have a positive effect on the dollar. The US currency remains a safe haven currency and, during periods of sharp declines in equities, it tends to grow,” said Zach Pandl, strategist Goldman Sachs chief foreign exchange officer.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased today by 10 kopecks, to:
- 33.20-33.40 UAH / € for sale;
- 32.60-32.80 UAH / € purchase.
