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The dollar has risen. Photo: Country
On November 11, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 3 kopecks and interbank trading ended at 28.19-28.20 UAH / $. At the box office, prices increased by an average of 5-10 kopecks, after which the average cash rates were in the following ranges:
- up to UAH 28.35-28.50 / $ – on sale;
- up to 28.10-28.20 UAH / $ – for purchase.
The bankers spoke of a stable demand for foreign exchange by the population. At the same time, rumors circulated in the market that the delivery of the dollar in cash was interrupted.
They say that a plane with a large number of tickets did not arrive in Kiev today (delivery was postponed), so there was a small deficit in the boxes. And banks have raised their rates for buying US currency by 10 kopecks so that people can more actively transfer it to exchange offices.
The interbank was impressed by the Americans
He was very calm in the interbank market, the volume of transactions fell dramatically, from $ 157 million to $ 83 million. This was explained by non-active US banks: because of this, transactions in dollars in our interbank market were concluded on the terms of tom (overnight delivery) or in euros.
“November 11 in the US was a day off, and this also affected trading activity. But this is a situational moment. Tomorrow we will see where the market will turn. I don’t change my forecast for dollar growth yet. Since non-residents remain in the hryvnia. We are waiting, “he added. »Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club Group Moods analysis department.
There were no large sales in dollars, so the National Bank did not go public with purchases of foreign currency. Exporters traded with importers, to some extent.
Large payments on government bonds and pressure on the hryvnia
The Ministry of Finance today made a large coupon (interest) payment on government bonds of hryvnia – 914 million UAH. However, this did not affect the currency market and treasurers do not expect a strong influence tomorrow. They say that the participation of non-residents in this payment was small. No significant effect is expected from the other two payments to be made by the Ministry of Finance this week:
- November 12 – 5 million euros in government bonds denominated in euros;
- November 14: 141 million UAH in hryvnia government bonds.
A large-scale reaction from the interbank market to bond payments and a change in the dollar rate is expected within a week. As “Strana” became known, on November 25 the Finance Ministry will extinguish a very important issue of government bonds – for UAH 11.8 billion. At the same time, the treasurers reported a significant participation of foreigners in this payment. Most of it will definitely be converted into dollars.
Until recently, financiers still hoped that foreign speculators would be tempted by returns on Ukrainian securities, especially in the context of a growing appetite for risk in the world market. However, now there is no such trust. Where large investments are expected from Ukrainian banks.
“Now at work are the municipal bond issues of some cities, for which the yield can be within 11-13% per year. That is, it can be attractive for investments. Especially considering the decline in the banks’ loan portfolios. NBU, according to which it will accept to accept municipal securities with the security of its refinancing. This will further increase the interest of our banks in them. Whether foreigners are interested in them, we’ll see, “financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky told Strana.
Non-residents do not accept new issues from OVDP. Sources told Strana that most of the government bonds that the Finance Ministry placed yesterday for UAH 7.9 billion were bought by Privatbank, as well as two other state banks – Ukreximbank and Oschadbank.
Fiscal dollar and foreign purchases
Tomorrow, November 12, the treasurers admit a new rise in the dollar. Due to the fact that the American banks were not functioning today, the new foreign exchange earnings did not reach the accounts of our exporters. That is, your dollar sales may decline tomorrow.
The opening of the interbank market is expected in the range of 28.18-28.23 UAH / $, while the movement of 28.25-28.28 UAH / $ is not excluded. The prices are not supposed to go up. Since at these levels, Ukrainian companies that have already started preparing for the payment of corporate income tax can intensify their foreign exchange sales.
Treasurers wonder when exporters will launch a large-scale sale of the dollar for the tax period: according to some estimates, it will all start from November 12 to 13, and according to others, not before the 16th. At the same time, it is not quite. clear how much of the “fiscal dollar” the National Bank will buy and what part, by foreigners who have accumulated a good reserve of hryvnia after the sale of government bonds and will replace it with refunds from the Ministry of Finance.
“How will dollar sales fare against taxes? We will see how non-residents will react. If they rush to buy foreign currency, the exchange rate will go up. Even during the tax period,” Andrei Shevchishin said.
Euro suffers from vaccine
In today’s world market the euro was sold and the dollar was bought. Therefore, the European exchange rate fell from $ 1.1818 / € to $ 1.1774 / € after the exchange rate movement within $ 1.1746-1.1833 / €.
Analysts say that markets continue to absorb the positive news about the successful trials of a coronavirus vaccine by two major global developers (German BioNTech in cooperation with American Pfizer). And this can continue for some time.
“The news is positive, certainly, but we certainly need to go into detail and think about the implications of the whole process,” Jeremy Stretch, head of foreign exchange strategy at G10 CIBC Capital Markets, told Reuters.
The Ukrainian market reacts to global trends late, that’s why our cash rate has increased by 5 kopecks today:
- up to 33.50-33.70 UAH / € – for sale
- up to 32.95-33.15 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the Ukraine business intensified before the weekend in the United States and the dollar rose.
We also reported that the dollar fell a bit again and there was an intrigue surrounding new foreign investments in government bonds.
