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On a possible military exacerbation.
1. Today’s risk is roughly 50/50. But this is the highest risk in (at least) the last 2 years. And this risk increases almost daily.
2. The threat of a large-scale invasion of Russia is not yet excessively high. The Russians are increasing the concentration of forces and means, certain unpleasant movements are taking place on the other side of the front line in the JFO zone.
However, not so much the quantity as the quality of the relevant groups does not yet give reasons to predict large-scale actions. As far as is known, the events that always precede major offensive operations do not take place.
Aggression is the last bargaining chip used when other options don’t work. Given the behavior of the Kremlin, Putin hopes that the rest of the arguments will not be exhausted.
But it would be unwise to categorically reject such a scenario. It is always worth preparing for the most difficult.
3. Russia is always leading when there is a need / opportunity. Ilovaisk, Debaltseve and DAP were the backdrop for the signing of agreements with the aggressor that were unfavorable for the state by the Ukrainian authorities. The Kremlin may well regard conventional Noises or Shirokino (the choice of place names is arbitrary) as the key to Kiev’s greater flexibility. Furthermore, Zelensky has yet to pass a true war test.
The Russians have sufficient forces and means to carry out a local operation. Provided they have precisely found the weak link in our defense.
4. The noise of the saber and / or the local offense is not only a pressure on Kiev, it is also a game of raising the stakes in the difficult negotiations with Washington. Contacts between the Russian Federation and the United States are progressing at different levels, they are difficult, sometimes difficult, but they still continue.
Let no one be fooled by the vaudeville chants of “Putin is a murderer.” There is public game, but real politics. These countries are frank antagonists, but that is why they should try to negotiate.
5. Washington’s reaction to the Kremlin games (bringing the European contingent of American troops to combat readiness, operational contacts of American diplomats and military personnel with Kiev) means that the Americans saw the message from Moscow, they understood the hint and they accepted the challenge. The Kremlin upped the ante, the White House responded.
The American signal to the Ukrainians deserves special attention. It should not be overestimated (no one will fight for us), but underestimated, even more so.
Despite the tension and misunderstandings, the Americans are signaling that the situation is being watched. And such a reaction is many times more important than the coveted “so-called Biden,” whose expectations have almost become a new national idea.
6. The ceasefire to which we “signed” last summer, in particular, provides for the prohibition of reconnaissance activities, the use of UAVs, sniper / counter-sniper work and the like.
Thank goodness these reservations are not fully respected. Therefore, it would be utter folly to remain blind, deaf and defenseless, especially in the face of a possible exacerbation. Furthermore, the enemy ignores these prohibitions.
But. Anyway, the military (naturally) looks back to Bankova, who has agreed to political agreements on the ceasefire. And Bankovaya still insists on the fulfillment of the regime’s conditions (despite the intensification of the bombings).
From what is clear, there is still no real permit for the full work of snipers, in particular, counter-snipers. And our most noticeable losses in recent years have been from unpunished enemy sniper fire.
But. The key is the removal of any restriction on recognition. In reality, it is the opposite: its improvement.
7. There is hope that the NSDC at its meeting will adequately assess the existing threats and find the appropriate means of rejection.
Traitors, TV stations, the Constitutional Court, and mining companies are endlessly fascinating things, but there are more pressing threats to national security.
Concentrate and stay awake.
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