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Failing to attract enough Western attention in any other way, the Kremlin has once again turned to its favorite instrument: the display of military might.
The premonition of a new escalation of tensions with the West was replaced in Moscow by an unfortunate recession. The reaffirmation of the President of the United States, Joe Biden, that President Vladimir Putin is a “murderer” was seen as a sure sign of a resurgence of the confrontation. But it was more of a simple statement of fact, and Biden nonchalantly rejected Putin’s challenge to open a debate on controversial issues. Putin’s subsequent photoshoot with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu in the Siberian taiga became an object of ridicule, rather than a meaningful political message. Most importantly, the expected review and strengthening of the European Union’s strategy in relations with Russia has been postponed.
At the EU summit on March 25, Biden gave a video message about restoring US-European relations and jointly fighting against the provocative and aggressive actions of Russia. The main theme of the summit, however, was dedicated to the urgent need to confront the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which has hit some European states with lethal force, while vaccination dynamics remain clearly unsatisfactory, although it is much more active than in Russia.
It seemed like a tempting opportunity was opening for Moscow to engage the EU in a joint fight against the pandemic, but instead the Europeans accused Russia of engaging in unfair competition with Western vaccine manufacturers, which French President Emmanuel Macron even described as a new type of world war. The Kremlin has opposed the accusations and its propaganda campaign to promote the Sputnik V vaccine, which is not produced enough for internal immunization. (but it is nevertheless exported in symbolic quantities) is consistent with other Russian subversive activities.
China is waging a similar campaign, and the issue of creating a common transatlantic position towards this major geopolitical rival received more attention at the EU summit than issues related to Russia. Moscow has deemed it necessary to intensify its strategic partnership with Beijing, which is why Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov visited the country last week in an effort to strengthen bilateral solidarity against Western pressure and sanctions. China has responded appropriately «friendly gestures ”, but in reality he prefers to keep a safe distance from the dangerous and unequal confrontation between Russia and the West.
Russia is on the periphery between China and the West that meets
At the same time, each step towards the expansion of such a sensational partnership means Russia’s increasing dependence on its economically powerful Asian neighbor. Seeking to show that it will follow China’s leadership in the region and can go even further, the Kremlin showed its support for the military rulers in Myanmar by sending a deputy defense minister to participate in the Naypyidaw parade last Saturday.
But Moscow is far more eager to demonstrate its ability and willingness to engage in a direct and “hybrid” projection of military power in the Middle East, a region where Beijing is far less inclined to behave with such confidence. Syria is the main base for Russian operations in the Middle East. But ten years after the outbreak of a massive uprising against President Bashar al-Assad, whose regime Russia has helped support since 2015, the country remains unstable and economically bankrupt.
Moscow cannot provide sufficient funds for the necessary reconstruction of Syria, and its goal is to make victory the final road. «Liberation “, Idlib province, controlled by the rebels, effectively blockaded by Turkey. The Russian army tried to test the strength of the rebel position in Idlib last week with several airstrikes, but Ankara responded with decisive steps. President Recep Tayyip himself Erdogan is also playing a more cunning game with Europe than with Russia: alternating tough steps in domestic politics with conciliatory gestures toward Greece.Then the EU summit developed a positive agenda, not sanctions against Turkey.
Failing to attract enough Western attention in any other way, the Kremlin has once again turned to its favorite instrument: the display of military might. A few days ago, three Russian nuclear submarines carried out a singular (although not tactically reasonable) maneuver: emerging from under the Arctic ice 300 meters away. In yet another demonstration of Moscow’s strategic reach, two MiG-31 interceptors flew over the North Pole, which Russia calls the pinnacle of its continental shelf. These aggressive demonstrations have barely set the right tone for the Russian presidency of the Arctic Council, which Moscow will host in May, as the organization seeks to promote international cooperation in the global north.
However, Russia’s military activity is more worrying in Ukraine. For several months, skirmishes in the Donbas war zone escalated, while diplomatic interactions within the Minsk format remained completely unsuccessful. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy hopes for a new beginning in relations with the United States and knows that the key to success is to push through reforms, including military modernization. Moscow’s window of opportunity to anticipate these events is narrowing. Russia’s attention distracts Ukraine «Offensive Spring ”by the opposition in Belarus, which has the support of its European neighbors. Putin has failed to convince his fellow autocrat Alexander Lukashenko of the need to show some flexibility, nor can he afford another mass mobilization of protests in Belarus that could resonate in Russia.
Continued declining revenues and rampant corruption are fueling growing discontent in Russia. It is barely visible on the streets, but the willingness to participate in mass demonstrations in support of the battered Alexei Navalny quickly garnered 350,000 responses across the country.
Putin has long sought to assume the role of leader of a global movement against America’s dominant world order; instead, he has turned out to be the defender of desperate dictators from Venezuela to Myanmar. Many democracies are grappling with the dire consequences of the pandemic, but populists of various stripes are in an even worse position, so there is hardly any sign of the anti-democratic movement in the Kremlin.
As the world gradually recovers from a severe but transformative crisis, Russia’s opposition to a seemingly weakened but in fact reunified West exacerbates its own decline. Washington’s leadership in turning the crisis into an opportunity gives new energy to the Transatlantic Alliance and helps the EU to restore momentum to integration. This leaves Russia hopelessly marginalized.
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