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Former President Petro Poroshenko does not lose hope of regaining the leadership of the country, photo: Izim Kaumbaev, “Strana”
In the public space, Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the “servants of the people”, on the one hand, and Petro Poroshenko, on the other, constantly and hard immerse themselves.
In recent days, this has been happening, for example, around the pogrom of the Office of the President for organizing that Poroshenko was directly accused of Zelensky. The former president himself also criticizes Bankovaya on all fronts.
One has the impression of a struggle between two irreconcilable political opponents.
But in fact, in parallel, Poroshenko is trying to start processes that could lead to the creation of the alliance “Eurosolidaridad” with “servants”, in which he himself holds the position of prime minister.
Details in the article “Countries”.
Re-election of Poroshenko
After the local elections, the ratings of the parties fluctuated within a significant range, but in principle the picture remains unchanged.
Judging by measurements from various sociological services, the top three leaders are the presidential Servant of the People (SN), the European Solidarity of former President Petro Poroshenko (EU) and the Opposition Platform – For Life (OLLP).
At the same time, Poroshenko’s party is in an interesting situation.
As “Strana” wrote, Zelensky in recent months has been pretending to be a “patriot” and a fighter against “Russian aggression”, thus entering the electoral arena where the former president has long settled.
However, sociology shows that Poroshenko’s party did not lose much in the ranking. The level of support for Eurosolidarity fluctuates between 14% and 18% among the respondents who made their choice.
On the other hand, Poroshenko’s personal anti-rating remains high. According to the latest “Rating” data, 25% trust the former president, 73% do not trust him.
With such anti-rating, Poroshenko has practically no chance of becoming president, even if he enters the second round with Zelensky.
At the same time, another peak is more real for the former president: the post of prime minister.
You can achieve this in case of early election appointment to the Rada.
If at that time the alignment of forces in the party ranking does not change (when three parties – CH, OLE and the EU are in a tight group with a wide range of competitors) and at the same time Poroshenko’s party occupies the first place elections (which, according to current sociology, is not a simple problem, but not a fantastic one either), then the alignment of forces in the new parliament will be quite favorable for the leader of Eurosolidarity.
In this case, it will be possible to form a coalition, theoretically, only in three ways: with the participation of HLE and the EU (which is not realistic), with the participation of HLE and Servant of the People (which the Americans will not do) . allow to do) and with the participation of the People’s Servant and Poroshenko’s party. The last option seems the most likely given this alignment of forces.
At the same time, of course, Poroshenko will demand the post of prime minister.
And having received this position, he can gradually override Zelensky’s influence until Ukraine’s transition to a parliamentary form of government.
Naturally, the actual alignment in the elections may be different. For example, “Eurosolidarity” can get less than what sociologists are now giving by passing the parties of Groisman or Klitschko to the Rada, with whom (in addition to “Batkivshchyna”) “Servant of the People” will try to create a coalition without Poroshenko .
But in any case, the former president’s party will receive significantly more seats in parliament than it does now. Therefore, the game is worth it.
According to the “Strana”, Petro Poroshenko is actively pushing for the idea of early parliamentary elections through all possible channels in the United States. He presents it as an opportunity for the formation of a “Euro-Atlantic” coalition. Poroshenko’s lobbyists portray the current “mono-majority” of the “Servants of the People” as contradictory from the point of view of a pro-Western orientation with a heavy weight of non-pro-American people.
The coalition of the SN and the EU, the field of elections, as Poroshenko promises, will follow the Euro-Atlantic course more consistently.
Last week, after Biden called Putin a “murderer”, Poroshenko released a video in which he dispersed in compliments to the president of the United States, rebuked Zelensky for his indecisive position, but said that he was allegedly actively involved in the organization. from Biden’s call to Zelensky.
“Not because of Zelensky, of course, we are trying, but because of the state, because Ukraine’s national interests require a dialogue with the United States at the highest level. Our security depends on it, our victory in the war with Russia depends on it. The prospect of our membership in the European Union and NATO depends on this. The future of Ukraine depends on this, ”Petro Poroshenko said pathetically.
Oleksiy Goncharenko, a people’s deputy from Poroshenko’s party, denies the possibility of an alliance with Zelensky, even on this, even in the future Rada.
“We are an opposition force that did not support any appointment of this government and did not vote for the budget project. The “servants” will not create any coalition with us. And his party will not be in the next parliament at all, ”Goncharenko told Strana.
At the same time, the head of the party headquarters, Alexander Turchinov, was not so categorical in a recent interview with the BBC.
“When suddenly they (” Servants of the people “- Ed.) will see your light and ask for help to stop this chaos, then of course the experts who are in “European Solidarity” will be happy to help stabilize the situation, “said Turchinov.
He believes that this option is quite possible if early elections are held after which Poroshenko can become prime minister.
“I hope that if it is not intelligence, at least the instinct of self-preservation (in the current government) is enough to go to the early elections and leave the burden that they cannot throw away. Poroshenko is sufficiently prepared for the position of prime minister.” , Turchinov said. …
Counterarguments
What is he playing against Poroshenko here?
First, there is a high degree of distrust of Poroshenko on the part of Washington. At the points where Americans now have problems with Zelensky (anti-corruption vertical, judicial reform), during Poroshenko’s time there were problems, at least not less. And in the fight against the “Russian threat”, Zelenskiy is now even more of a “hawk” than Poroshenko.
Furthermore, Biden’s team almost did not forget that it was Yuri Lutsenko (with Poroshenko’s knowledge) who was the person who promised to dirty Giuliani’s people about the family of the current US president.
Second, it’s not just Poroshenko who is holding backstage negotiations with the winning team in the United States.
Former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, who now has the support of the richest Ukrainian Rinat Akhmetov, has his own history of relations with her. Yatsenyuk has no chance of becoming president or head of the party. It is on election day. But he hopes to win over a tiny one again, as he did in 2012, when he, as the leader of the unpopular Front for Change, led the main opposition force in the country, Batkivshchyna, instead of the jailed Yulia Tymoshenko.
In addition, Yatsenyuk has maintained close contact with the current United States Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland.
“Among Western diplomats, including Americans, there is a good opinion of Yatsenyuk, and they do not lose hope of his return to great politics,” confirms political analyst Anatoly Oktisyuk, citing his sources.
At the same time, as “Strana” already wrote, Yatsenyuk is playing his own difficult game. On the one hand, investigating the terrain for the resumption of the alliance with Poroshenko (and then the latter’s lobbying efforts in Washington will receive an additional boost). On the other hand, together with Akhmetov, he works to promote the political project of former Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman. In the third, through Akhmetov himself, he is trying to somehow integrate himself into the current power system.
“The Americans, apparently, are still deciding who will work with Ukraine from there and who will work with them from Ukraine. Why just Poroshenko? Biden can bet on Yatsenyuk or Zelensky, ”says political analyst Vadim Karasev.
Third, snap elections are now categorically not necessary for Zelensky and the “Servants of the People” according to the alignment we described above. The president’s office does not want to choose between a coalition with the HLE and the EU with the prospect of getting a “foreign” prime minister and the actual loss of power.
And so far the sentiments in Servant of the People are clearly against the snap picks.
“There are no prerequisites for an extraordinary campaign. Judge for yourself: the mono-majority act de jure and de facto. The government is working and we are still not poisoning anyone to resign. The country is being pushed into new elections by the opposition, whose ratings are growing. But no one can force the president to dissolve parliament, ”MP Aleksandr Kachura told Strana.
Experts also believe that re-elections from the Rada are not yet expected.
“The only logic can be to absolve us of responsibility for what is happening in the country: they say, let’s elect a new parliament and there they will agree on a new government and a plan of action. But nobody wants to give up power. Now Zelensky still has a wide leeway in this Rada. There is a mono-majority, you can discuss the option of a coalition with Tymoshenko (Batkivshchyna faction leader Yulia Tymoshenko – Ed.) and “Voice” – just in case. In return, an unpredictable future, “says political scientist Vadim Karasev.
“Everyone will have more factions in the new Rada, both the OLE and Tymoshenko and Poroshenko. Therefore, they are more or less interested in early elections. This may also be of interest to those regional elites who are building their own political forces with the expectation of a fully Ukrainian level. The oligarchs do not know what the re-elected parliament and the new government will bring. It may be worse than the current one in terms of securing your “wishes,” says political analyst Ruslan Bortnik.
A source in political circles points out that there can only be two factors that force Zelensky to go to early elections.
First, it is a strong political crisis, which includes a large-scale division of the faction and street actions. So Zelensky, to “vent”, can dissolve the Rada.
Second, pressure from the United States, which can make elections a difficult condition for continued support. But Americans still need to be convinced of the latter. So far, there is no sign from Washington that they would like to restart the Ukrainian parliament earlier than planned. In contrast, the Americans are not very supportive of any sharp political movement in Ukraine, fearing destabilization. And lobbyists for the dissolution of the Rada will have to go to great lengths to induce the United States to change its position.
