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The cash dollar fell 10 kopecks. Photo: Country
The dollar is losing ground for the second day in a row. On January 12, its exchange rate on the interbank market fell 11 kopecks (yesterday, 12 kopecks) and stopped at 28.04-28.05 UAH / $. The spot market reacted to this with a reduction of 10 kopecks in the price of “American”, after which the average prices reached the following levels:
- UAH 28.20-28.40 / $ – on sale;
- 27.90-28.10 UAH / $ – for purchase.
From this, people increased their foreign exchange sales: they tried to turn the dollar into even greater depreciation.
Activity in the interbank foreign exchange market grew and the volume of transactions went from $ 111 million to $ 141 million, mainly by large players.
The main foreign exchange sellers were banks with foreign capital: Citibank, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, Credit Agricole Bank. They needed a hryvnia to buy national government bonds; Today our Ministry of Finance held another auction for its placement. And there was a demand to buy the dollar from importers, as well as from the National Bank.
The NBU came out to buy the dollar at the peak of sales and acquired around $ 20 million at UAH 28.05 / $.
“Morning trading opened with quotes of UAH 28.10-28.12 / $. Sales by non-resident banks caused a rather pronounced collapse of the rate, to UAH 28.05-28.06 / $. At these levels, the regulator decided to intervene in the trading, after the interbank market entered UAH 28.04-28,055 / $, and at lunchtime it decreased slightly, to UAH 28,035-28,045 / $. Despite the fact that the market was actively selling currencies, preparing for the next auction from the Ministry of Finance in anticipation of the fact that non-residents will again participate, there were many buyers of dollars in the auction. This may explain the weak volatility with a sufficiently large daily market volume “, – Yuriy Grinenko, treasurer, chief operating officer Credit Dnipro Bank’s interbank market trading, described the situation to Strana.
The placement of OVDP by the Ministry of Finance and the sale by foreigners against these dollar values are the key factors that played a role today for the interbank market and the hryvnia exchange rate.
At the end of the day, the Finance Ministry announced the sale of its debt securities for a total of UAH 8.9 billion. The highest demand was observed in short-term (6-month) and medium-term (12-month) government bonds in hryvnia, the rest were placed less successfully. If we complete the popularity ranking based on today’s auction results, the following will be published:
- for UAH 4.7 billion, government bonds were sold for 12 months at 11.69% per annum;
- for 2.4 billion UAH – for 6 months at 10.73% per annum;
- for 271 million UAH – for 3 years at 12.5% per annum;
- for UAH 263 million – for 2 years at 11.85% per annum;
- for $ 48.2 million UAH – 12 months at 3.8% per annum.
“UAH 8.9 billion is a good amount for the beginning of the year. But I think this is not the maximum. Even higher interest is expected in long-term government bonds, which are expected to be placed next Tuesday. These are 7-year securities and may interest foreigners. So it will be, then the dollar will rise with these acquisitions and the hryvnia will continue to strengthen, “financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky predicted to Strana.
Tomorrow, January 13, foreigners will pay the government bonds bought today from the Ministry of Finance. Therefore, dollar sales will continue and a further strengthening of the hryvnia is expected. The opening of the interbank market is forecast in the range of UAH 28.0-28.06 / $, after which movement is allowed at UAH 27.90 / $. Most likely, the final rate depends on the National Bank, from which new purchases of foreign currency are expected.
“At the beginning of the year, no large purchases of foreign currency imports have yet been observed. Therefore, the exchange rate will largely depend on the regulator and on the activity of foreigners in buying government bonds. Ukraine has already been through this, and now it goes according to the usual scenario. The situation can only be changed with VAT refunds, but they are even more than a week away, “financial expert Vladislav Kravets told Strana.
The euro cash rate fell to the bottom
On the world market, there was a slight depreciation of the euro, from $ 1.2167 / € to $ 1.2160 / €, after trading at $ 1.2137-1.2179 / €.
Markets continue to absorb the rise in US Treasury rates. That ties into promises by US President-elect Joe Biden to increase the infusion into the American economy. The Treasury understands that this will require funds, therefore it is lending more actively: it increases the national debt of the United States. At the same time, everyone awaits the presentation of the day after tomorrow (January 14) of Biden’s economic program.
“We do not expect political events in the United States to be a major factor for the dollar. Market participants are paying attention to Biden’s policies, not the final days of the Trump presidency,” the Commonwealth currency analyst commented. Bank of Australia Joe Capurso on sentiment to Reuters.
In Ukraine, a sharp collapse of the average euro cash rate continues. On January 12, it collapsed into 40 kopecks for sale and 55 kopecks in redemption:
- up to 34.25-34.55 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 33.80-34.00 UAH / € – for purchase.
