Ministry of Economy has worsened the GDP forecast

The economy is depleted by constant changes in operating conditions, the ministry said.

In the first quarter of 2021, the real GDP of Ukraine will fall 3.0%. This is confirmed by the review of the Department of Strategic Planning and Macroeconomic Projections of the Ministry of Economy on Monday, January 11.

Before the decision on the weekend quarantine in November 2020 and the introduction of another lockdown in January 2021, the Ministry of Economy predicted negligible GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021.

Now, given the reduction in the safety margin of most of the foreign economic activity (especially the services sector) and the depletion of the economy due to constant fluctuations and changes in operating conditions during 2020, it is obvious that by the end of the first quarter By 2021, a fall in GDP can reach 3%, the document says.

At the same time, if the situation with the incidence rate does not worsen and if stricter restrictions are not introduced in the future, from the second quarter and until the end of 2021, the economy will begin to show positive dynamics.

In turn, the Ministry of Finance said that Ukraine in 2021 must pay 585.13 billion hryvnia of state debt debt: from internal debt – 418.80 billion hryvnia, from external – 166.33 thousand million hryvnia.

In March 2021, Ukraine must repay UAH 70.69 billion to creditors, UAH 76.80 billion in June and UAH 101.77 billion in September.

Of the total amount of 585.13 billion hryvnia, repayment of the debt will amount to 443.55 billion hryvnia, interest payments – 141.58 billion hryvnia.

We recall that previously the World Bank revised its forecast for Ukraine’s GDP. Ukraine’s economy will not grow more than 3% next year, bank analysts say.

Shmygal also said that the average salary will grow 13%. The prime minister is confident that in 2021 the average real wage will rise. And since the beginning of the year, the “minimum wage” is already six thousand hryvnia.

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