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Dollar exchange rate in Ukraine during the first three months of 2021 will decrease from 28.4 to 27.6 UAH / $, breaking the psychological mark of 28 UAH / $.
So says the Reuters forecast, which was compiled based on the results of a survey of 13 analysts. “This is mainly due to the situation in foreign commodity markets, including rising grain and steel prices, and as a result of an increase in foreign exchange earnings,” explained Alexander Podnebenny of OTP Bank.
Furthermore, there are positive expectations of cooperation with the IMF. In December 2020, Ukraine passed an anti-corruption law to increase its chances of receiving additional loans from the International Monetary Fund as part of a $ 5 billion deal.
“The Ukrainian hryvnia is likely to strengthen in the first half of 2021, thanks to the inflow of foreign exchange from exports and renewed interest from foreign portfolio investors in Ukrainian bonds,” according to a monthly Reuters survey.
Foreigners’ attitudes towards Ukraine’s debt began to improve in late December, following the resumption of negotiations on IMF loans. “Rates are gradually increasing and global interest in risk assets is growing amid expectations of a resumption of global economic growth in 2021,” said Sergei Kolodiy de Aval.
Analysts predict that Ukraine’s economy will grow 4.0% in 2021, after an expected decline of 4.8% in 2020. Inflation should remain relatively subdued at 6.1%, compared to 5.0 % expected in 2020.
As OBOZREVATEL wrote, in Ukraine until January 17, the price of the dollar may fall 20 kopecks and reach the level of 28.2 UAH / $. According to Roboforex analyst Andriy Goylov: “Next week I expect the US dollar against the hryvnia additional correction to the level of 28.20. The single European currency against the hryvnia is likely to weaken to 34.65 “.
