[ad_1]
Before the holidays, people began to actively deliver the dollar.
The last foreign exchange week of 2020 began in the interbank market with a decrease in the dollar exchange rate by 4 kopecks: on December 28, the quote ended at UAH 28.28-28.31 / $. At the box office, the “American’s” cash rates fell by an average of 5 kopecks:
- up to 28.40-28.50 UAH / $ – on sale;
- up to 27.95-28.15 UAH / $ – for purchase.
People began to deliver the dollar more actively, so banks do not hesitate to lower the rescue price of the currency and earn according to the scheme that was popular this summer: they buy currency from the population and resell it in the interbank market. Spot prices are lower than non-cash prices, for this reason it is a very profitable business.
The volume of transactions in the cashless market remains small, although it has grown slightly today, from $ 107 million to $ 121 million, according to Bloomberg.
Today’s maximum exchange rate is UAH 28.39-28.40 / $, it was set in the morning. But as soon as the number and volume of transactions began to decline, prices fell back: first at UAH 28.36-28.37 / $, and then at UAH 28.28-28.31 / $.
“Today, the dollar prices have risen slightly in individual transactions. As soon as they closed, the hryvnia strengthened. There was no stable demand for the currency, because the dollar was getting cheaper. Banks are not trying to buy it in advance. , because in early 2021 the currency is expected to fall currency position “, – commented on the sentiment” Strana “financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
Importers buy dollars in small portions and are not very active.
“The market is scarce, there are few participants. Even a small preponderance of a few can lead to a change in the market situation. Today, in the afternoon, there were more sellers. There is no special news, many are already preparing for the holidays “said the head of the analytics department in an interview with Strana. Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin Group.
The state-owned Ukreximbank and Alfa-Bank, which were selected among the buyers of the dollar in the morning, were named the main players in the interbank market today. While they were making deals, the quotes were still on the higher side. But as soon as we finished, the coin started to go down in price. The main seller of foreign exchange, according to the treasurers, was Raiffeisen Bank Aval.
The National Bank did not attend the auction and observed the situation from outside.
Tomorrow, the Finance Ministry plans to place nine series of its national government bonds, as announced late last week. In the initial request, officials changed only one point: they replaced a short-term issue (for 4 months) in hryvnia with a short-term issue (3 months) in dollars. Preparing to liquidate on January 6, 2021, the old government bond issue for $ 187.3 million.
Most of the foreigners have already gone on Christmas holidays since the end of last week. They are not expected to buy Ukrainian government bonds. Therefore, the new placement of the Ministry of Finance should not affect the interbank currency market and the hryvnia exchange rate.
“I suppose all hopes will be on state banks. Commercial banks are likely to close out the year and fix their reports. I don’t expect them to make significant purchases of government bonds at the last Ministry of Finance auction this year,” he predicted Andrey Shevchishin.
The forecast is supported by reports from the National Bank on refinancing, from which it can be seen that Oschadbank has been accumulating NBU loans for two weeks in a row, which can be invested in government bonds, that is, to finance the deficit of the state budget:
- December 24 – 5 billion UAH;
- December 18: 8 billion UAH.
Tomorrow, December 29, the interbank market is expected to open in the range of 28.25-28.30 UAH / $, and movement to 28.25 UAH / $ is allowed.
Speculators raised the euro
The euro exchange rate on the world market rose again: on December 28, it went from $ 1.2181 / € to $ 1.2210 / € after trading between $ 1.2181-1.2250 / €.
Investors received positive news from the United States: the president of the United States, Donald Trump, whose term is ending, after some resistance, nevertheless signed a law with a package of economic aid (in the framework of the fight against the corona crisis) for America worth 900,000 million dollars.
On the one hand, this stimulated the demand for risk assets around the world, which include the euro, and on the other hand, it calmed society.
“For Americans, who endlessly search their mailboxes for a check with payments, this is the best Christmas gift you can only dream of,” AXI analyst Stephen Innes commented on the sentiment to France-Presse.
In Ukraine, the average cash sale rates of the euro have not changed, but the price of its redemption has been reduced by 5 kopecks. At the box office such rates:
- up to 34.65-34.85 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 34.10-34.25 UAH / € – for purchase.
