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Analysts believe that the dollar will dominate the euro until the end of the year. Photo: Country
On the interbank foreign exchange market, the dollar continues to rise rapidly: on December 22, its rate added another 21 kopecks (in total, it grew by 39 kopecks in two days) and reached 28.40 to 28.43 UAH / $.
This could not fail to affect the box office, because the average cash exchange rates also increased significantly, by 15 kopecks. At night, the prices remained in the following ranges:
- UAH 28.40-28.55 / $ – on sale;
- 27.90-28.10 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers are talking about the active purchase of cash currency in the regions and average volumes in Kiev.
Transactions on the interbank market intensified: the total amount of transactions on the Bloomberg platform increased from $ 133 million to $ 221 million.
The Ukrainian company, which received budget payments at the end of the year, buys the dollar and closes the deal. At the same time, our exporters are holding back currency sales: Treasurers said that today the giant Naftogaz was selling the dollar, but only $ 10 million was thrown at auction. And foreigners, from whom they expected a large amount of dollars to buy our domestic government bonds, were limited to small transactions.
“Exporters are not in a hurry to part with the dollar. Foreign buyers took some government bonds, but most non-residents complete transactions in Ukraine before Catholic Christmas to go on vacation. Today they bought back the currency against the withdrawal of dividends. “explained financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky to Strana. …
The dollar was not enough during the negotiation and the National Bank had to sell it with gold and foreign exchange reserves. For the first time, by the way, this month. The NBU offered it at 28.42 UAH / $ and was on the market with the sale until 15:30. It did not sell much: according to rough estimates, about $ 10 million, but this fact was still called indicative.
After all, in the interbank market they expected something entirely different: that foreigners would go out and buy government bonds and they would literally flood the interbank market with a dollar. But that did not happen. Affected by negative news about the spread of a dangerous mutation of the coronavirus, the UK lockdown and the absence of a Brexit trade deal between London and Brussels.
“The fall of world markets stopped many participants. And the holidays are already on the nose, so the activity of this group has decreased by the end of the year. It became clear that there will be no foreign exchange sales in the market under OVDP The IMF in Ukraine and the optimistic statements about receiving the tranche in February had no effect, “said Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club analysis department.
This does not mean that the Ministry of Finance did not sell the government bonds at all. The securities were placed at a rather high level, totaling 22.2 billion UAH. This, of course, is less than the historical volume of the previous week (51.4 billion UAH), but a solid result. Especially for the end of the year. However, foreigners did not become large buyers of government bonds, as expected. Its purchases were estimated at around 1.8 billion UAH, although the average yield on 5-year securities jumped from 12.04% to 12.25% annually. State and commercial banks became key buyers.
The highest demand was for 11-month and 5-year government bonds. If we compile a rating by placement volume, it will look like this:
- 5.1 billion UAH: 11 months at 11.62% per annum;
- 3.8 billion UAH – 4 months at 10.25% per annum;
- 3.2 billion UAH – 6 months at 10.75% per annum;
- 2.2 billion UAH – 5 years at 12.25% per annum;
- 1,580 million UAH – 3 months at 10% per annum;
- 1,510 million UAH – 1.5 years at 11.75% per annum;
- 398 million UAH – 3 years at 12% per annum;
- UAH 300 million – 4 years at 12.15 per year.
The Ministry of Finance was also able to sell its 12-month dollar bonds for $ 138.5 million at 3.8% per annum.
In the current situation, the treasurers no longer even stutter about strengthening the hryvnia. They trust a greater appreciation of the dollar. Tomorrow, December 23, the opening of the interbank market is expected to be between 28.40 and 28.45 UAH / $. After that, the move is expected to be UAH / $ 28.50 or even higher.
“The movement is likely to continue to 28.5-28.55 UAH / $. Everyone will be watching the National Bank and its interventions. The flood of buyers may intensify, and it is very likely that the NBU will try to keep the market close to 28 , 5 UAH / $ “, – Shevchishin believes.
New euro cash record
The dollar dominated today not only in Ukraine, but also on the world market. The euro exchange rate gave up notably: it fell from $ 1.2214 / € to $ 1.2172 / € after trading between $ 1.2161-1.2257 / €.
The euro was dumped on the back of good data on US GDP growth: in the third quarter, according to final estimates, it rose to a record 33.4% year-on-year, although a more modest result was forecast: 33 ,1%. Therefore, investors bought the dollar more actively.
The European currency was also pressured by the news of the spread of a new strain of coronavirus in the United Kingdom and by the problems that this country has with the conclusion of a new trade agreement with the European Union after Brexit. Analysts believe that the dollar will dominate the euro until the end of the year.
“If the eurozone and the UK are forced to play the game of gradually introducing lockdowns until vaccines are fully implemented, then the popular version of a weak dollar in 2021 could come under fire as the US heals its wounds. economic faster, “he told the agency. Marios Hadjikiriakos, Reuters XM investment analyst.
However, in Ukraine, the euro cash rate continues to grow strongly due to the increase in the dollar price (the multiplication of the hryvnia / dollar rate by the world euro / dollar rate is considered). On exchangers, average prices increased by 24 kopecks on sale and 10 kopecks on purchase:
