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The vaccines, which Ukraine will receive free of charge, have yet to be tested. Photo Gavi.com
The Ukrainian authorities announce the beginning of the vaccination of the population in March next year.
It is true that there is no information from the Ministry of Health on a number of important issues. The first is how many doses and when can Ukraine buy. And not just receive it as humanitarian aid.
The second question is which vaccines will arrive first in our country. The Ministry of Health does not name specific brands, claiming that we will be supplied with different medications.
But it turned out that it hasn’t been a secret in the world for a long time that the free supplies will include vaccines that have yet to be tested. And the manufacturers themselves say that there are problems with them.
As for the massive paid deliveries already starting around the world, Ukraine shouldn’t count on them even next year, apparently.
“Strana” understood what the vaccines would be and when the Ukrainians would receive them.
What authorities have said about delivery times for vaccines
“Strana” recently reviewed the plans and reality for the delivery of foreign vaccines to Ukraine.
Eight million doses, enough to vaccinate half the number of people, are promised free transfer to Ukraine under the international Covax mechanism.
The package will include mainly Western-produced vaccines, but it is unclear exactly which ones will be delivered to Ukraine, as they are going to ship those that will be available upon delivery.
The Ministry of Health expects the start of deliveries in March. It is true that this is not the first date. Before it sounded April, and even before that, January.
“These 8 million doses will begin to be delivered from the end of the first quarter of next year. We hope to receive them by the end of the first half of 2021. They will go in the appropriate tranches,” said the head of the Ministry of Health, Maxim Stepanov.
This quote contains a significant correction to the timing. Previously, it was deduced from the words of the officials that Ukraine will receive the eight million doses in the spring. But it turns out that they will go in sections.
However, “Strana” also assumed this. We cite the opinions of experts, according to which the Ukrainian medical system will not be able to “digest” a large number of vaccines at once. Due to the complex logistics required for vaccines that must be transported at ultra-low temperatures.
In other words, the vaccination process with free vaccines can be extended into the fall. And this is only about four percent of the population. The rest will have to be vaccinated at the expense of the state budget, that is, the state will have to buy vaccines directly from manufacturers.
The Ukrainian authorities have not yet boasted of “peremogs” in the area of the contracts concluded, and have vaguely stated that they are negotiating with all possible suppliers. Except for the Russians, whose “Sputnik V” Kiev officially refused to buy. Although Russia was the only country that offered this to Ukraine out of turn.
The formal reason is that the vaccine has not been tested (although this can be said for any Western vaccine, including the Covax vaccine, which we will discuss below). The current one is a ban on Americans.
Thus, Kiev has become a long list of people willing to buy European and American drugs. It is true that there is almost no possibility of receiving a vaccine there more or less quickly.
Mass vaccination – after 2022
The main western media also write that Ukraine will be able to buy vaccines later than many countries.
Recently, Bloomberg published data on the contracts that each country has entered into to vaccinate its population (we are talking about those contracts that the agency found in the public sphere).
Ukraine is also in the standings. It is indicated that our country has currently agreed to supply vaccines for 5% of the population, or 2.1 people. That is 4 million doses.
If you look at who else in the world has agreed to vaccinate only 5% of its inhabitants, then we will find ourselves in the company of the poorest countries in the world.
Ukraine is at the level of Uganda, Togo, Zimbabwe, Tanzania, Tajikistan and other countries.
For comparison, Russia has already established vaccines for 50% of the population, Turkey – for 30%. And the rich countries of the West and the European Union (green areas on the map) are already contracting the number of doses that exceed the population – with an eye on revaccination, which, it seems, will have to be done quite frequently.
The absolute leader here is Canada, which was equipped with vaccines to inoculate its entire population four times.
It is not yet clear which contracts Bloomberg is talking about. But remember that only in the framework of Covax, that is, free of charge, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine spoke about twice as much: not for 5%, but for 10% of the population. As you can see, they speak of a different figure in the United States.
“Bloomberg has tracked nine of the most promising vaccines around the world, from national procurement to injections in the hands of patients. We estimate that 7.95 billion doses have already been allocated,” the newspaper writes.
So, we realized that of these almost 8 billion doses, Ukraine was able to monitor only 2.1 million. That is to say, he questions when the rest will arrive.
Another study suggests that the wait is really long. In November, The Economist magazine published calculations according to which mass vaccination in Ukraine can only start in April … 2022.
What vaccines will we get under Covax?
By the way, about Covax. Bloomberg publishes interesting information about which vaccines will be supplied under this mechanism (the Ukrainian authorities are silent on this). These are the British AstraZeneka, the Chinese-American group UBI and the French Sanofi.
That is, as we can see, there is neither Pfizer nor Moderna, which are considered first-rate vaccines. And they are already massively purchased in many countries of the world.
The same cannot be said for the vaccines that will be supplied to poor countries, including Ukraine, for free. All of them have not been tested yet.
Swedish-British company AstraZeneca developed a vaccine in conjunction with the University of Oxford. In this vaccine, the chimpanzee adenovirus delivers the coronavirus protein. The peculiarities of this development are its low cost (presumably $ 5 for two doses), and also that it can be stored and transported in conventional refrigerators.
However, there are also problems. For example, in September, AstraZeneca had to suspend vaccine trials after a volunteer developed transverse myelitis (inflammation of the spinal cord). Subsequently, an investigation was launched to find out if this case was related to vaccination.
Also during the trials in India, side effects were recorded, within the normal range, but there were more of them than in the placebo vaccine.
The AstraZeneca vaccine is now back in stage two of the trials. In the EU, 400 million doses have been ordered, but even in Britain they have yet to be vaccinated.
French company Sanofi together with the British GSK also developed a vaccine. They are in the second stage of testing.
This Covid-19 vaccine is formulated with viral proteins created with artificially engineered viruses that grow inside insect cells. GSK has supplemented these proteins with adjuvants that boost the immune system. The vaccine is based on the same design as the already approved Flublok flu vaccine.
It recently emerged that the Sanofi vaccine will not be available until the end of 2021. This was originally expected to happen in the middle of next year.
The delay is due to Sanofi’s decision to improve immune response rates in older age groups. Studies have shown that vaccinated people between the ages of 18 and 49 develop the same immune response as patients who have had Covid-19. But in older patients, the immune response was weaker.
The European Union has already signed contracts for the supply of the Sanofi-GSK vaccine for 300 million doses. The company is also willing to transfer 200 million doses to the US company COVAX for “fair distribution throughout the world”.
Another coronavirus vaccine developed UBI / UBIA Group (United Biomedical Inc., Asia) in collaboration with the American company Covaxx (a subsidiary of UBI based in New York).
The vaccine, called UB-612, is a high-precision preparation on a synthetic peptide platform designed to activate B lymphocytes and T lymphocytes.
At the same time, preclinical studies were conducted in guinea pigs, rats, and mice. The first phase of clinical trials will continue until December 31, 2020 in Taiwan. The company also has an agreement with the University of Nebraska Medical Center to conduct a second phase of trials in the United States.
The manufacturer has committed to supplying more than 100 million doses of UB-612 worldwide.
In other words, Kovax has provided vaccines for Ukraine, which are still very raw and not suitable for mass vaccination.
Now the generosity of international partners is understandable: Ukrainians will receive medicines, many of which may not be completed at the time of delivery. Whether they will be tested on Ukrainians is an open question.
It is clear that these vaccines are most likely to enter the country after all phases. However, when they finish, no one knows for sure; it can take many months. And Minister Stepanov promises the first vaccines in March.
Therefore, what exactly will be brought to us in a free package, most likely the Ukrainian authorities will not even know.
At the same time, they refuse to take the Russian vaccine, which they have already registered and are inoculating the population en masse, arguing that the drug has not been tested and does not even “exist”. But they accept drugs that are only in the first phase of testing.
Note at the same time that Ukraine was offered to produce the Russian vaccine at its own facilities. At the same time, nobody bothers to check the drug in Ukraine, and if it is safe, start production right here. This means that we could meet our vaccine needs much faster and cheaper.
Now this stage will have to wait until 2022.