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Фото: Fitch Ratings (fitchratings.com)
COVID-19 Vaccine Will Boost Economic Growth
The international rating agency Fitch Ratings expects the global economic recovery to be strong starting in mid-2021. This will happen as vaccines against the coronavirus begin to be applied and social distancing begins to diminish.
This is indicated in the December forecast from the Global Economic Outlook (GEO).
Fitch now expects global GDP to fall 3.7% in 2020, down from 4.4% in September’s forecast. This will happen despite expectations of a resumption of the GDP decline in the fourth quarter of 2020 in the eurozone and the UK, following the recent tightening of restrictions, and reflects the fact that global activity in the third quarter he recovered much faster than expected.
“The road to global economic recovery is proving more difficult than expected as the second wave of coronavirus poses new restrictions, but the vaccine news is very positive for the economic outlook for the next two years,” said Brian Coulton, Chief Economist at Fitch Ratings.
Fitch raises its 2021 global growth forecast to 5.3% (from 5.2%) US GDP is forecast to grow 4.5% (from 4.0%) and China’s 8.0% (from 7.7%). ), but eurozone growth is now projected at 4.7% (down from 5.5%), as the new lockdown measures affect activity in the winter months.
Fitch also revised its global growth forecasts for 2022 from 3.6% to 4.0%, reflecting the expectation of a reduction in social distancing violations following the expansion of immunization programs.
The events of recent months have shed more light on the unprecedented economic impact of the pandemic, the agency said in its report. In particular, this is a robust and faster-than-expected recovery in the third quarter of 2020. While the recent second wave of lockdowns does not reduce activity as much as it did in April, the underlying effects will significantly improve sequential growth when the blockade is eased in 2021.
The unprecedented role of macroeconomic policy easing and sovereign support in mitigating the impact of the pandemic has also become clearer. Total disposable income in the household sector has been practically stable in Europe, and has grown significantly in the United States, thanks to huge financial transfers. The unemployment rate in Europe increased only marginally due to the expansion of large-scale layoffs, and the number of small business bankruptcies did not increase.
Note that the International Monetary Fund has improved its forecast for the world economy and now expects a 4.4% decline in 2020 and recovery growth of 5.2% in 2021. In June, the IMF expected GDP worldwide to fall 4.9% in 2020 and grow 5.4% in 2021.
As a reminder, in September, the international rating agency Fitch Ratings expected world GDP to fall 4.4% in 2020. The forecast is revised slightly upwards compared to June, when the world economy was forecast to fall by 4, 6%.
