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Demand for the coin reached its lowest level on December 7. Photo: Country
The new week in the interbank market began with a new collapse of the dollar: on December 7, its rate fell 13 kopecks and trading ended between UAH 28.10-28.14 / $. At the box office, prices also fell, by an average of 5 to 10 kopecks. As a result, the average cash rates reached:
• 28.35-28.50 UAH / $ – for sale;
• 28.10-28.20 UAH / $ – for purchase.
The volume of operations in the interbank market was small: it fell, according to Bloomberg, from $ 143 million to $ 112 million, while the demand for foreign exchange was minimal.
“The trade was dominated by the export sales of the dollar, the demand for foreign exchange was very small. There was little import and banks were selling foreign currency because December 7 was the last day of reserve formation. Everyone had to meet the standards “, explained to” Strana “the market. financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
The state banks were selling the dollar quite actively. And of the number of currency buyers, one structure stood out mainly: Alfa-Bank.
In the morning, the trade started quite high: 28.25-28.2750 UAH / $. Until noon, the interbank market remained at UAH 28.22-28.2450 / $, everyone expected the National Bank to buy the currency. But after he did not appear at the auction, prices fell to the final low.
Many consider this approach of the regulator illogical: just today the NBU reported on the reduction of its gold and foreign exchange reserves by $ 4.7 million, to $ 26.1 billion. The decline is not very large, but it is prolonged, having been going on for three months. As of September 1, the central bank had $ 29.05 billion and now it’s $ 3 billion less.
It is clear where the funds are being spent: mainly for payments of the state debt. However, the treasurers do not understand why the National Bank does not take advantage of the favorable market conditions and does not replenish the dwindling foreign exchange reserves.
“The market is actively dispelling the rumor that the NBU does not want to allow a sharp rally in the dollar rate. But this is nonsense. After all, the market is completely dead and there is no demand, so if foreigners lose nerves and run after the regulator to buy the dollar, a spontaneous price increase Perhaps, the National Bank will continue with its uncomfortable surprise game, but in the conditions of a “lying” market this is completely ridiculous. It would be better to save reserves of currencies to pay off debts in 2021 ”, he commented on the situation to Strana, vice president of the board of one of the banks.
A more or less plausible version of the NBU’s inaction in the interbank market (it has not entered the market for more than a month) is the issue version: the regulator supposedly wants to buy back the currency at a cheaper price to print less the hryvnia of issue. Given that a lot will be injected without that through another channel: the refinancing of banks that continue to buy national government bonds.
In an interview, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal announced the government’s plans to place government bonds of UAH 50-60 billion in December and even announced his willingness to raise rates to 13% per annum (from 10-11.7% current) to cover the budget deficit. In such conditions, the money will really flow if the Cabinet needs it.
Tomorrow experts admit a very large placement of new government bonds, almost up to UAH 15-20 billion. The Ministry of Finance has gone too far in its request for the placement of securities. Initially, he was going to sell four issues: three hryvnia (6, 12 months and 2 years) and one dollar (for 12 months). However, today they have been added three more bond issues: 3 months, as well as 3.5 and 4.5 years. Perhaps the officials agreed to sell part of the government bonds to non-residents, which has been rumored for a long time.
For the Ministry of Finance, it is important to place a large placement in foreign currency securities. Since on December 10, you will have to repay bonds in domestic dollars for 376 million dollars and take back funds from the decreasing reserves of the National Bank, which is not the best option.
A day earlier, on December 9, the government will also have a large payment in hryvnia government bonds – more than UAH 10 billion: interest and repayment. However, the treasurers ensure that most of these securities are in the portfolios of state banks and will be reinvested for a new term.
In this context, experts expect a further depreciation of the dollar. On December 8, the interbank market open is forecast at UAH 28.09-28.12 / $ and the rate is expected to slide further down.
“If there are no buyers, then who knows where sellers will launch the course. The closest support is 28.05-28.07 UAH / $ – we are watching it. The market has already tested it several times – it has resisted,” said the boss. from the department to Strana Andrey Shevchishin, Forex Club analysts.
Tomorrow, the treasurers have the first purchase of the dollar by the National Bank in the last four weeks. According to some forecasts, the regulator will go out to buy foreign exchange at 28.09 UAH / $, and according to others, at 28.0 UAH / $.
“I think that tomorrow the interbank can test the level of UAH 28.0 / $, and the purchases of the National Bank can take place at this level,” said Vasyl Nevmerzhitskiy.
Germany stimulates the euro
The euro exchange rate on the world market was shaking all day. On the night of December 7, the European currency rose from $ 1.2138 / € on Friday to $ 1.2141 / €, and during the day it moved between $ 1.2079-1.2166 / €.
Investors liked Germany’s report on the growth of industrial production in this country by 3.2% at a time, with half of expectations – 1.6%.
“The growth of industrial production in Germany in October and signs that it will persist after the new restrictions took effect in November suggest that the German economy will avoid a contraction of GDP in the fourth quarter,” commented the chief economist for Capital. Economics on Traders Sentiment to the Wall Street Journal. Europe by Andrew Kenningham.
In Ukraine, the euro cash rate was reduced by 5-10 kopecks:
• up to 34.30-34.55 UAH / € – for sale;
• up to 33.95-34.15 UAH / € – for purchase.
