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Ulyana Suprun and Geo Leros are not safe enough to perform PCR tests in Ukraine
However, they were immediately criticized by the former head of the Ministry of Health, Ulyana Suprun, and the People’s Deputy, Geo Leros, expelled from the Servant of the People faction.
NV explains why the Ukrainian authorities decided that the coronavirus was receding and why this might not be true.
Fewer new cases
In recent days, the number of new officially confirmed cases of coronavirus has decreased significantly:
Health Minister Maxim Stepanov said on December 7 that the Health Ministry, for the first time since August, revealed a decrease in the number of new cases compared to last week: from November 23 to 29, they were registered 96936 patients in Ukraine, and from November 30 to December 6, 89322. The minister added that for We did 279 thousand tests a week (we are probably talking about PCR tests – ed.) and the same number of tests were done the week before the previous one.
Stepanov explained the decrease in the number of new patients in a week due to the effectiveness of the weekend quarantine.
In turn, Prime Minister Denis Shmygal, during a meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, pointed out that the decrease in the incidence of coronavirus throughout the country, except for the weekend quarantine, also contributed to the fines for lack of masks.
Zelensky on December 7 mentioned a decrease in the increase in coronavirus cases in Ukraine thanks to a weekend quarantine in a telephone conversation with the President of Lithuania, Gitanas Nauseda. This was reported by the presidential press service.
Why is it too early to rejoice?
The head of the Kiev State Consumer Service, Oleg Ruban, on the air of the television channel Ukraine 24 said that a decrease in the number of new patients per day does not mean that the epidemic has begun to subside.
«As for the objective indicator, it is about hospitalizations of patients with severe and moderate forms, their number is invariably high, and there is a tendency to increase, not decrease, ” he said, highlighting that the introduction of new restrictive measures is necessary and the weekend quarantine is not effective. a measure with such a rapid increase in incidence.
The deputy Geo Leros on his Facebook page drew attention to the fact that the decrease in the number of new cases of coronavirus in the last four days coincided with a decrease in the number of tests per day.
Thus, on December 4, the Ministry of Health reported that during the last day 74,880 tests were carried out and 15,131 patients were detected, while on December 7 the Ministry of Health reported that only 33,502 tests were carried out on the last day and 8,641 cases of coronavirus were detected.
«Especially what worked was that they started doing half the tests, the statistics improved immediately) Keep burning, if you stop testing completely, then there will be no sick people at all, ”said Geo Leros. At the same time, the popular deputy draws attention to the total number of tests: PCR + ELISA tests (tests for antibodies to coronavirus, which can persist in the body for more than a year – ed.). Whether a person is sick can now only be determined with certainty by PCR testing.
Note that the head of the Ministry of Health, Maxim Stepanov, compared the number of new patients not by day, but during the past and the week before to the past. According to him, 729 thousand tests were carried out last week and supposedly the same number of tests were carried out the week before.
According to the Ministry of Health, which is published on its Facebook page, the number of tests last week was (The Ministry of Health publishes the data of the previous day in the morning of the following day – ed.):
- Dec 7 – 33502;
- Dec 6 – 42096;
- Dec 5 – 67533;
- Dec 4 – 74880;
- Dec 3 – 72678;
- Dec 2: 67626;
- December 1 – 62327.
The total number of tests published for the week of December 1-7 is 420642.
The previous week, according to the Ministry of Health, the number of tests was:
- Nov 30 – 31901;
- Nov 29 – 49180;
- Nov 28 – 67348;
- Nov 27 – 72789;
- Nov 26 – 76911;
- Nov 25 – 75396;
- November 24 – 61567.
The total number of tests published for the week of December 24-30 is 435,092.
Thus, 14,450 more coronavirus tests were performed in the week of November 24-30. (PCR + ELISA) than in a week from December 1 to 7.
During the last week, PCR tests were performed:
- Dec 7 – 27881;
- Dec 6 – 33308;
- Dec 5 – 44538;
- Dec 4 – 48028;
- Dec 3 – 47172;
- Dec 2 – 44445;
- December 1 – 33817.
Only one week from December 1 to December 7 (in fact, from November 30 to December 6, since the data for the last day are published by the Ministry of Health in the morning of the following day), 279,189 PCR tests were performed.
During the week before the last, PCR tests were performed:
- Nov 30 – 26290;
- Nov 29 – 39233;
- Nov 28 – 43458;
- Nov 27 – 46005;
- Nov 26 – 49323;
- Nov 25, 45438;
- November 24 – 35425.
In just one week from November 24 to 30 (in fact, from November 23 to November 29, since the data for the last day are published by the Ministry of Health in the morning of the following day) 285172 PCR tests were performed.
That is, for the week before the previous one, 5,983 more PCR tests were performed than in the previous one. At the same time, 7614 new patients were registered in the week before the last week than in the previous one. (96936 vs. 89322). Thus, there is still a slight decrease in the number of new patients per week, even taking into account the difference in the number of tests.
At the same time, the former head of the Ministry of Health Ulyana Suprun points out on her Facebook page that the total number of detected cases of coronavirus means nothing without interpreting other important indicators.
She points out that the coronavirus test volumes at the end of November, at the beginning of December, were practically unchanged and the positivity rate did not change. (ratio of positive PCR tests to the total number of PCR tests in percent). According to the statistics of December 6, published by the Ministry of Health on December 7, the positivity rate in Ukraine is 30.9%, which is six times more than the WHO recommendations – 5% or less.
Suprun emphasizes that in Ukraine the positivity rate is constantly growing and the positivity rate of 20-30% indicates that not enough tests are performed, the system does not detect all patients, and the virus spreads further.
The former head of the Ministry of Health also draws attention to the fact that about half of the PCR tests in Ukraine are carried out by private laboratories and people have to pay for them. And Ministry of Health laboratory centers often do not have time to process all the samples that arrive at them, leading to significant delays.
She cites the example of the Kiev Laboratory Center, which received 1,410 samples on December 2, processed 2,123, after which 2,085 were left untreated.
«In fact, this means that in Kiev the laboratory does not process real samples day by day, but compensates for the previous days, “Suprun emphasizes.
In addition, the former head of the Ministry of Health pointed out that in Ukraine they do not track the contact persons of the sick.
Also, referring to data from the National Health Service of Ukraine, he writes that the burden on hospitals is increasing, there are not enough places, and people often end up in hospitals that are already in serious condition.
«It is not surprising, since the Ministry of Health of Ukraine has recently reduced the indicators of oxygen saturation for which a person should be hospitalized. Now the reason for hospitalization is 92% or less. At the same time, there are increasing reports that patients are being discharged to their homes too early to release their beds, so they are looking for oxygen concentrators to complete their treatment at home, ”Suprun said.
According to the former head of the Ministry of Health, the Ukrainian authorities «create the illusion of control over the situation, which is not true. “
