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Europe: What have we done in Ukraine?
In Europe, a period of understanding of what you have done in Ukraine has clearly begun. It started in Europe, but not in the United States, which, due to their semi-religious imperial messianism, are generally unable to critically evaluate their actions.
Reflective articles appear here and there in the EU almost every week under the blanket refrain: Have we broken firewood in Ukraine?
Of course, they were wrong. Furthermore, practically
The result of the external control of the West for 7 years is administrative chaos and confusion in the country, without the slightest hope of economic growth. Furthermore, the mess is constantly growing and leads to the fact that no one, not even the West, has power and reforms cannot be carried out in principle. And without reforms: eternal poverty and begging for loans.
The attempt of the West to reform our corrupt elite and our corrupt government, mechanically, without thinking, to introduce Western institutions in our country, as long as the whole society is not reformable, was doomed in advance to total failure, about which I had to write many times. The reforms had to begin with the reform of the conscience of society. When the consciousness of society changes, power itself will change, but not the other way around.
On this page, several people asked me a question:
“When will it be better in Ukraine?”
Frankly, he was even somewhat confused. It seems to me that this formulation of the question is now incorrect. “Better” has already happened in Ukraine. Somewhere, probably, in the time of Kuchma, and you can forget about that already. After Ukraine has signed the Association Agreement, only the following questions can be asked:
“When will it get worse in Ukraine? And how much worse? How long will it be worse?”
To be honest, I never believed that Ukraine would sign the Association Agreement and wrote about it several times, starting in 2013, as it was considered an extremely dangerous idea. My logic was based on the following:
– the Agreement itself was extremely disadvantageous for Ukraine and guaranteed the destruction (without real compensation) of many industries, a drop in living standards, unemployment, etc., which would immediately lead to populism, an increase in nationalism and tension in the west-east of Ukraine
– The implementation of the Agreement required at least $ 70-100 billion of investments in infrastructure alone, which was impossible to implement.
– The politically underdeveloped Ukrainian society was unable to implement the political part of the Agreement, which required democratic reforms, which made the Ukrainian economy absolutely not competitive with the European one.
– There will really be nothing to compensate for the breakdown of economic relations with Russia.
If the Accord is signed, I wrote, it will only be under enormous pressure from the West, which, in fact, has happened. Also, it happened in the most unfortunate way, in the form of a color revolution. To force Ukraine to sign the Agreement, the West could not resist and resorted to the illegal removal of Yanukovych from power. What is really there – will call things by name.
Well, if so, then you can forget about the question “When will Ukraine be better? The answer is simple:” For the foreseeable future, “Never!”
After the West decided to forcibly eliminate Yanukovych, it unilaterally changed the rules of the game regarding Ukraine and opened Pandora’s box. In response, Russia annexed Crimea and supported the outbreak of a civil war in Donbass, and the frankly slow reaction of the West to such steps by Russia confirms that the West was aware of its responsibility and guilt for what happened.
All of this led to the growth of nationalism in Ukraine itself and the official resurgence of the cult of Bandera, as a fundamental figure of the Ukrainian state. Poland was quick to take advantage of this, and the question of Poland’s inevitable territorial claims is only a matter of time and reason. Hungary is also off to a low start and will not make any compromises with Ukraine on the issue of protecting its citizens in Transcarpathia, to which it has already distributed citizenship in advance. Russia will not stop at what has been achieved either
The West pulled the trigger and the Ukrainian avalanche began to move, growing in speed and attracting more and more interested participants in its stream. We are only at the beginning of the journey. At what level the new geopolitical balance of power will be fixed on the territory of Ukraine and what will remain of it after that, is basically impossible to predict.
Only one thing is clear: in Ukraine in the next decade everything can be bad or very bad. This is my answer to my friends.
