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On the interbank foreign exchange market, a new jump in the exchange rate: on November 25, the dollar rose 8 kopecks and the operation ended at 28.43-28.45 UAH / $.
At the box office, the rates have hardly changed. Average cash prices were in the following ranges:
- 28.45-28.60 UAH / $ – sale;
- 28.20-28.30 UAH / $ – buy.
Bankers noticed a decline in the population’s demand for foreign exchange.
There was a strong revival of trading in the interbank foreign exchange market. Transaction volume, according to Bloomberg, grew from $ 76 million to $ 134 million.
In the morning, prices moved within the range of 28.35-28.39 UAH / $, and in the afternoon there was a jump of 28.43-28.45 UAH / $. Two things happened:
- A very large payment from the Ministry of Finance in hryvnia bonds of the domestic state loan – for UAH 14 billion: repayment of securities for 11.8 billion and interest payments for UAH 2.2 billion. Then the foreigners went out to convert their amounts into dollars.
- The first major payment from the State Treasury for VAT refunds. In one day, the company received 2.7 billion UAH. Before that, there were small transfers: 200-600 million per day. Having received more hryvnia, exporters began to contain more of their foreign exchange sales.
“Both events are expected. It was clear that after a large payment of government bonds, the demand for the dollar would grow and that after the VAT the supply of foreign exchange would decrease. The demand for foreign exchange also grew slightly due to the weekend tomorrow in the United States. But the market was ready for anything: the banks accumulated a dollar in their currency positions, and it was sold today. The Interbank was able to balance itself, the National Bank did not sell the reserve currency, “commented the financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitskiy al Strana on the commercial mood.
Thanksgiving is celebrated in America on November 26, so American banks will not work and Ukrainian companies will not be able to transfer the dollar. Interbank transactions will be made on Tom’s terms (with delivery tomorrow).
Financiers wonder if non-residents will continue to buy the US currency tomorrow. On the one hand, no large currency sales are expected tomorrow and the interbank market may be illiquid. On the other hand, foreigners do not like to sit in hryvnia for a long time after large payments. Also, everyone remembers that they managed to accumulate a considerable amount of Ukrainian currency.
“From the National Bank report on OVDPs, it is clear that since the beginning of November, non-cutters have withdrawn from our government bonds by UAH 3 billion. And yesterday they did not enter new OVDP issues in the placement. The question It is asked: when will this avalanche of money enter the market? It is worth noting the slowdown in the sale of securities by foreigners. This week the minimum movement “, – commented on the situation to” Strana “the head of the analytics department of the Forex Club Group Andrey Shevchishin.
They give different forecasts for tomorrow. According to some, on November 26, the start of the interbank market will take place between UAH 28.43-28.47 / $, quotes will quickly reach UAH 28.50 / $ and move in the direction of UAH 28.60 / $ . On the other hand, the market will not go beyond 28.50-28.50 UAH / $.
Foreign currency purchases are expected by foreigners and weak activity by importers, who are still waiting for the Cabinet of Ministers to tighten restrictions on COVID-19 in December.
“Any restriction is a decrease in commercial and commercial activity. Entrepreneurs fear freezing money in a product with the risk of entering or in a lock with low consumer demand,” Shevchishin said.
The euro soared on bad news
The rate of the euro grew steadily for the second day in a row: on November 25, its rate on the world market rose from $ 1.1880 / € to $ 1.1918 / €. after oscillating between $ 1.1882-1.1930 / €.
If yesterday’s rise in the price of the euro is explained by the successful macroeconomic statistics of Germany. So today, the poor performance of the United States:
- US GDP for the third quarter grew on an annualized basis less than expected.
- The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits by Americans for the week immediately rose by 778,000 from expectations at the 730,000 level.
- Consumer income in the United States in October unexpectedly decreased by 0.7% (against growth forecast by 0.1%), expenses increased by 0.5% (instead of 0.4%) .
- New home sales in the country decreased 0.3%, although a growth of 1.5% was projected.
Too much negative news about the United States for one day, and none positive. Therefore, the merchants sold dollars and bought euros.
In Ukraine, the average cash rates of the European currency increased by 10 kopecks and exceeded the psychological mark of 34 UAH / €:
- up to 33.75-34.0 UAH / € – for sale;
- up to 33.30-33.50 UAH / € – for purchase.
The maximum selling price of the euro reached 34.10 UAH / €.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the lock does not allow the dollar to rise in price, but 8,000 UAH from Zelensky could change the situation on the foreign exchange market.
We also report that the dollar rate is increasing due to the placement of government bonds in foreign currency.
