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The main western countries have stopped considering Russia an equal partner and see it as failed state
The influence of Putin’s Russia is greatly diminishing. First, Russia has a toxic image: this is due to the poisoning of Alexei Navalny, the Skripals and Litvinenko, and many other events.
Second, Russia’s influence in the so-called Russian world is waning. And the “Russian world” in understanding as interpreted in the Kremlin is shrinking before our eyes. Georgia separated from the Russian world long before, then Ukraine. In general, it is necessary to have great talents so that people, who for 300 years have been the closest, understandable in culture, religion, language, begin to perceive you as an enemy. But Putin has succeeded. Now it is the same in Belarus. And this is precisely what caused the failure of foreign policy in Moldova.
Consciously or not, Putin’s vertical is trying to restore the Soviet model, when orders are issued from the Kremlin and members of the so-called Russian world carry them out. If the Kremlin strategists were smart enough to try to build something like the British Commonwealth, when there is some cultural, linguistic and historical community, without trying to dictate their political interests, especially power, then it would probably be easier with the language. Russian and with The “Russian world” too.
The specific case of Nagorno-Karabakh fits well here.… If we consider it in the background, then until this year there were no NATO military in Transcaucasia, and now they have appeared: Turkish military in Azerbaijan. This can hardly be called a great diplomatic success. Although, of course, in the corridor of opportunities that Vladimir Putin had, he did not maneuver in the worst possible way. Still, he brought peacekeepers, not occupiers. And yet he did not get involved in another war, as in Georgia or Ukraine.
In the international context, it seems to me that the main Western countries have stopped considering Russia as an equal partner and see it as it has failed state, that is, as a state that cannot fulfill its own tasks. Poison someone, kill, squeeze, there are enough resources for this, but to be on a par with the others, no, except for one: military confrontation.
But again, this is a typical Soviet model, when the USSR lagged behind in all respects, but only in military potential was it on a par with the United States. Putin is trying to recover this Soviet history; it can’t do anything else. Just spend more and more tax revenue on the arms race and scare the whole world.
Now a president has come to power in the United States, who has experience communicating with Russia since Soviet times.… In 1972, Joe Biden became a senator for the first time. He saw dinosaurs like Brezhnev, then Andropov, then Chernenko in front of him, so it would be a mistake to think that he has illusions about what the Russian political class is. With Putin’s Russia, Biden will be, if anything, tougher than Trump. Most likely it will return to the politics that was called in the 70s and 80s «discarding communism. “Whenever it was possible to put a bloc to Soviet interests, it was put. The same can now be said of Russia. Since Putin has significantly fewer real resources than in the Soviet era (some young elites in other states readily accepted the socialist rhetoric in exchange for a little help, and this rhetoric helped them to commit terror against their own opposition.) Therefore, the USSR had many friends in Africa, Asia, Latin America. And now they are not even there.
Putin’s Russia sinks into isolation
There is no reason to be wrong. Putin’s foreign policy is weak. It does not have enough resources, it does not comply not only with support, but with a special understanding among developed countries. Furthermore, he runs into a misunderstanding on the part of China. There are only one or two allies left for Russia, and there are no more. Except Venezuela, Vanuatu, which recognize the sovereignty of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Putin’s Russia is sinking into isolation, erecting an informational iron curtain around it, and this is not a long-term strategy in Russia’s interest, but rather a primitive tactic of keeping a certain corporation in power that it believes is Russia owns Russia and uses it at its discretion. You can call it a corporation of security officials, security officers, Putin’s vertical, you name it. This model is surprisingly ineffective, and every year more and more people are convinced of it.
Are the Russian oligarchs afraid of possible sanctions from the Biden administration? Will Putin quit? No. The competitive advantage of such semi-market state capitalism is not the quality of the products or an unexpected marketing decision, but the presence of connections in the dominant nomenclature and the support of the security forces. Where will Putin’s oligarchs go if he gives them a license to extract oil and gas? If someone fights with Putin, as happened with Mikhail Khodorkovsky, Sergei Petrov, Yevgeny Chichvarkin (there are still many famous names), he immediately loses his business.
Putin is a pragmatist. He understands that as long as Russia has oil, gas, gold, diamonds, wood and other resources, in terms of access to these resources, it can keep any commodity entrepreneur at bay. Leaving Putin, abandoning his support, means ruining his business. Unlike the IT business, which can be done without Putin, as the great example of startups and established companies shows. They do not need mineral resources to produce a product that is in demand. With it you can go to Silicon Valley, Latvia, Ireland, anywhere. You will be welcomed everywhere, and you will be provided working conditions no worse than in Russia.
It is clear that Putin is leading Russia into a dead end, but on the other hand, it is too early to expect that those closest to him will abandon him. Of course, they understand that Putin is toxic, that his image in the West is being weakened by cooperation with him, but that does not bother them much, because of image and image, but because of gas-gas and oil-oil. And the Russian warehouses are under scrutiny by Putin’s security agents. Any owner of the raw materials business knows very well that they are tied to business, and through business, to Russia, by strong ropes. And I don’t think someone like Chichvarkin will drop everything and go to London to start over. But Chichvarkin is good, he is not an oil tanker. And if you are engaged in the production, refining, pumping of oil or gas, then it is clear that you must interact with the authorities, and Putin’s brigade understands this very well.
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