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The dollar may rise moderately
Average rates for buying / selling cash dollars at banks increased during the week to 28.27 UAH / 28.50 / USD.
During the next working week, the dollar is expected to rise against the hryvnia. The dollar in cash in banks can be traded at 28.4 / 28.6 hryvnia, and on the interbank market – about 28.5 hryvnia. This forecast was expressed by a senior analyst at Alpari Vadim Iosub, reports RBC-Ukraine on Sunday, November 22.
According to him, during the past week, the dollar against the hryvnia rose moderately in all segments of the foreign exchange market by 0.2-0.8%.
So, from Friday to Friday, the official exchange rate of the US dollar, set by the NBU, increased from UAH 28.20 to UAH 28.26 (+ 0.2%). The supply / demand of the dollar in the interbank market during the same time increased from 28.11 / 28.13 to 28.33 / 28.34 (+ 0.8%). Average buy / sell rates of cash dollars at banks increased during the week from 28.12 / 28.34 to 28.27 / 28.50 (+ 0.5% / + 0.6%). At the same time, the spread between the average sale and the average purchase remained at the level of 0.8%.
The future situation in the foreign exchange market depends on the continued cooperation between Ukraine and the IMF.
“It seems that by the end of the year Ukraine will have to forget not only the IMF tranche, but even the symbolic visit of the fund’s mission to the country. A hole appears in the budget, it is not clear how to close it,” Iosub said.
According to him, the government faces several options for action, but there is no good one among them.
“The correct option would be to promptly implement anti-corruption reforms, including reform of the judicial system and the issuance of electronic statements, this would contribute to the resumption of cooperation with the IMF. But whether there is enough political will for this is an open question,” said the analyst.
As a reminder, on Monday, November 23, the NBU cut the hryvnia rate by almost 10 kopecks against the dollar and by more than 19 kopecks against the euro.
It was also learned that Nybank had abandoned foreign exchange interventions in the interbank market for the second week in a row. During November 16 and 20, the regulator did not intervene to buy foreign currency in the interbank market and did not sell foreign currency.
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