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“The developers of the reform thought that over time, the number of people who can provide Soviet work experience will decrease. If the reform was introduced 20 years ago, the state would not have been able to save anything. But it gives the authorities to save on the future, “explains economist Alexei Kushch.
-The number of people with Soviet work experience is decreasing. In 2030, there will be practically no such people. In the future, most of the people will be those who will have to present insurance experience (it has been kept on record since 2004 – ed.). We have 17 million economically active population and only 7 million are full-time workers. ERU payers around 12 million.
The main beneficiaries of the solidarity pension system are full-time employees. There are several million people who periodically make social contributions and several million entrepreneurs who pay ERUs for a meager amount.
There are many people employed in the informal sector or working abroad. Approximately 5 million people do not pay any ERU. Almost a third. This means that one in three pensioners after 2030 will not have even 15 years of insurance experience. “
Now there are several tens of thousands of pensioners who receive payments in the form of assistance. They are lost in the context of 11 million pensioners who have enough experience, as they were earned even before 2004. The car with them can now be unhooked without unnecessary regrets.
In the long run, millions will need help instead of pensions. Starting in 2028, when seniority conditions reach the ceiling, Ukrainians will feel the full impact of the parametric pension reform.
“Every third (of the 17 million of the current healthy, – ed.) Will be able to demonstrate a more or less adequate level of salary and experience in insurance.
A third party will demonstrate insufficient experience in insurance and payment of minimum contributions and may claim the minimum amount of pensions.
A third will not be able to present anything at all: about 5-6 million people. The state has a great temptation to unhitch the carriage with these people from the pension provision, ”says the economist.
The expert is sure that after those who receive temporary assistance, those who do not have 15 years of experience and have reached the age of 65 will be disengaged. Or they will change your future minimum pension payments for obligations to the state here and now. This includes the taxation of remittances from migrant workers, the zero declaration and the subsequent annual mandatory declaration.
“What will be the reaction if the state cancels social assistance? Outrage”, sums up A. Kushch. “And the counter-supply of energy will continue: if you want to receive something, start paying something.”
