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Atlantic Council expert Anders Aslund believes that Russian President Vladimir Putin won a victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, which could shift the geopolitical balance in the post-Soviet space in his favor.
Through mediation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russian President Vladimir Putin succeeded in expanding the military presence of the Russian Federation in the strategically important region of the South Caucasus. This opinion voiced Anders Aslund, Principal Investigator for the Atlantic Council, in a blog post posted on the Atlantic Council’s website on November 11.
According to the expert, Putin has won a significant victory in Nagorno-Karabakh, which threatens to shift the geopolitical balance throughout the post-Soviet space in his favor.
“Most importantly, it did so without encountering Western resistance. This unbridled progress should cause alarm in other former Soviet republics such as Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova,” the report says.
Aslund believes that the lesson of the peaceful settlement between Azerbaijan and Armenia is that the world is ruled by military force.
“In a matter of weeks, the use of force has resulted in decades of failed diplomacy. The only two major international players in the South Caucasus region are Russia and Turkey. The United States has gone on vacation and the European Union. it’s a paper tiger without troops, “said Aslund. …
In 1991, Nagorno-Karabakh, with the support of Armenia, declared its independence from Azerbaijan. This led to hostilities that lasted until 1994. The armed conflict ended with the signing of the Bishkek Protocol on an armistice and a ceasefire, but from time to time armed clashes broke out between the parties. During the conflict, more than 30 thousand people died in the region. Azerbaijan considers Nagorno-Karabakh as a territory occupied by Armenia.
September 27, 2020 in Nagorno-Karabakh the biggest conflict in recent years broke out… The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry accused Armenia of “large-scale provocation”, bombardment of Azerbaijani army positions and announced the beginning of a “swift counteroffensive”. The Armenian authorities, in turn, declared that the Azerbaijani army had launched an offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh. During the conflict, the parties used tanks, heavy artillery and aircraft. Deaths and injuries reported military personnel and civilians.
Martial law was introduced as in armeniaY in certain regions of Azerbaijan… Both countries involved in the conflict announced mobilization.
Agreements were reached several times on truce in Nagorno-Karabakhbut each time they were raped. On October 9, during talks in Moscow, the representatives of Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh from 12 noon on 10 October… However, after the start of the truce, both parties they accused each other of raping him.
Representative of the Nagorno-Karabakh “authorities” Vahram Poghosyan November 9 reported that the army of the unrecognized Nagorno-Karabakh Republic no longer controls the key city of Shusha, and the Azerbaijani troops were on the outskirts of Stepanakert, the capital of Karabakh.
On the night of November 10, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed declaration to end the war in Karabakh… According to the agreements, 1960 Russian peacekeepers, 90 armored personnel carriers, 380 military and special vehicles will be deployed along the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh.
The Prime Minister of Armenia said that this decision was extremely difficult for him. but there is no alternative… Aliyev emphasized that Pashinyan was “forced” to sign a “more beneficial” document for Baku. Following the signing of agreements on the solution of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, representatives of the Armenian opposition demanded the resignation of Pashinyan.
On the morning of November 10, the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation sent Nagorno-Karabakh 10 Il-76 military transport aircraft with the peacekeepers. November 11th at Erebuni airport The plane with the command of the Russian peacekeepers has landed.
Aliyev spoke about the deployment of Turkish peacekeepers in the region. According to him, the peacekeeping mission will be jointly led by Russia and Turkey.
The press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, said that the agreements reached on the solution of the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh do not foresee the appearance of Turkish peacekeepers there. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that there will be no Turkish peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh.
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