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The course is now influenced by news about the US presidential election and the vaccine.
The new week in the interbank market began with another fall in the dollar, although not very big. Today, its exchange rate has lost 1 kopeck in the interbank market and the price ended at UAH 28.11-28.12 / $. At the box office, prices fell further, by 5 kopecks:
• up to UAH 28.30-28.50 / $ – on sale;
• up to 28.0-28.15 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers pointed out the population’s purchases of currency, spoke of a stable demand for the dollar in cash.
There was little activity in the interbank market: the volume of transactions fell from $ 132 million to $ 124 million, with forex sellers predominant. The maximum non-cash rate was set in the morning, at the opening of operations: 28.16-28.17 UAH / $. But it didn’t last long. Very quickly, prices fell UAH 28.10-28.1250 / $, and then fell to a low – UAH 28.08-28.09 / $.
Treasurers said the peak of the dollar’s decline was seen when Citibank came out to sell it, which was generally based on buying foreign exchange. The Interbank Bank took it as an anomaly, perhaps that is why it reacted that way.
However, there were also those who wanted to buy foreign currency at the lowest price. Therefore, at the close of trading, prices were corrected at UAH 28.11-28.12 / $.
All purchases in the interbank market today were market. The National Bank did not appear in the auction and did not acquire anything for its gold and foreign exchange reserves. Which surprised many after his report on Friday about the upcoming reduction in foreign exchange reserves by 1.5%, to $ 26.1 billion.
In the morning, information appeared that Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko had contracted the coronavirus, but the market did not react. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported on COVID-19 later, after the end of the active phase of negotiation. Tomorrow it will be clear how the interbank market will perceive it.
“I don’t think there will be a sudden reaction. Of course, the market will look around at this news, but so far there is no threat. It may appear if the illness of the first people leads to system failures, due to the impossibility of various approvals. I don’t think before. What will the placement of new government bond issues look like and what indicators will the tests show? The threat of a lockdown looms over the country, and this will prevent dollar sellers from selling and stimulate forex buyers, “Andrey Shevchishin, head of Forex Club’s analytics department, told Strana about the mood in the forex market. …
The Ministry of Finance, tomorrow, November 10, plans to place four issues of its government bonds, one of which is foreign currency:
• 6-month hryvnia: placement in addition to the securities sold on September 15 for 6.1 billion UAH at 7.82% per annum;
• 12 months in hryvnia: initial placement;
• for 2.5 years in hryvnia: additional placement to bonds issued on the market on February 4, 2020 for UAH 2.7 billion at 9.84% per annum;
• for 1.5 years in dollars: additional placement to the securities sold on August 11, 2020 for $ 189.7 million at 3.6% per annum.
After foreigners started selling the dollar today, a version emerged that they might be interested in buying hryvnia government bonds. that they are selling currencies to invest in government bonds. This is not an insider tip yet, just a version.
“It is not known for sure, but several options are being discussed. Especially in the context of the growing appetite for risk in the world after the news about the victory of the presidential election in the United States of Democrat Joe Biden, as well as the successful third phase of coronavirus vaccine trials by Pfizer. Gold is getting cheaper due to declining demand for safe haven assets, oil is becoming more expensive due to expectations of increased demand for petroleum products As the transportation industry recovers after the worldwide COVID quarantine is lifted. Demand for risk assets is growing, perhaps with this wave interest in our government bonds will revive, – said the financial analyst “Strana” Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
The situation with the placement of government bonds will determine the supply / demand of the dollar in the interbank market and the hryvnia exchange rate.
“The situation with government bonds is not yet clear, of which non-residents have withdrawn 2 billion UAH, but have not yet converted it into currency. Therefore, they are sitting on the hryvnia. Let’s see how the placement will be. tomorrow. If non-residents acquire new values, we can assume that we will stabilize, “admitted Andrey Shevchishin.
As treasurers wait for the cashless rate move near current levels. On November 10, the interbank market opening is forecast to be 28.10-28.13 UAH / $ and it is expected to maintain a working corridor of 28.08-28.15 UAH / $. In the long run, they allow the hryvnia to strengthen.
“The dollar in the interbank market can be traded in a week about 27.9 hryvnia, and the dollar in cash in banks can be around 27.9 / 28.1 hryvnia,” said Alpari senior analyst Vadim Iosub .
Markets cheer: the euro gets cheaper
The exchange rate of the euro, which has been growing on the world market for the entire past week, has fallen sharply today. From $ 1.1879 / € Friday to $ 1.1810 / €, although it pumped throughout the day in a wide range: $ 1.1816-1.1920 / €.
This is how the markets reacted to Joe Biden’s victory in the US election. And also to the joint announcement by Pfizer and BioNTech on successful clinical trials of a vaccine that has demonstrated greater than 90% effectiveness in preventing COVID-19 infection. The application for registration in the United States will be submitted in November.
Investors were buying securities of American companies, they needed a dollar. Therefore, they got rid of the euro and took the “American”. Stock indices rose immediately:
• Dow Jones Industrial Average – 4.39%;
• S&P 500 – 3.02%;
• NASDAQ – 0.72%.
At the same time, in Ukraine, the rate of the euro has grown by 10 kopecks:
• up to 33.55-33.80 UAH / € – for sale
• up to 33.10-33.30 UAH / € – for purchase.
