[ad_1]
Armenia was defeated in the battle for the central Karabakh region.
On the night of November 5, Azerbaijani infantry units cut off the key Lachin-Shushi highway and achieved a strategic success: access to the highway breaks the Armenian defense in Karabakh in two. Now the entire supply of Armenian Karabakh is tied to the single Vardenis-Martakert highway, which has been under enemy fire since the beginning of the war. Azerbaijan continues its offensive.
It should be noted: despite the critical situation, the Armenian army continues to resist, remains motivated and obviously will not withdraw from a single line without a fight.
Analysis of the operating environment
On the night of November 4-5, Azerbaijani infantry units crossed the mountain range to the Lachin-Shushi road. The Azerbaijanis reached the approaches near Shushi and, according to the statements of the Armenian fighters, no more than 3-4 km from the city, and probably even closer, in one of the videos, the Armenians are firing with mortars from 82 mm, which has 3 km – limit range.
The Azerbaijanis use bold infiltration tactics and find gaps in the Armenian battle formations, with several infantry units acting independently and in isolation from the main forces. This shows the high level of motivation of the troops. At the same time, using control over the route, the Armenians have favorable conditions for counterattacks and ambushes. But are there still forces for such counterattacks when the last line of defense near Shusha erupts?
The Armenians are actively working in the area of artillery and mortar advance. You cannot drag artillery and tanks into the mountain range after the infantry, obviously the Azerbaijanis have mortars and howitzers working from afar.
The situation contributes to the defense: the directions of the offense are easily calculated, the Azerbaijanis in the mountains have limitations in maneuvering. They cannot carry armored vehicles or artillery into the mountains. Drones have been used sporadically for the past three days and do not provide systematic support to the troops: there are no new videos and the Armenian infantry is openly moving in the vicinity of Shushi in large groups. Under these conditions, the Azerbaijani infantry is forced to independently solve tasks in contact combat, and under these conditions this inevitably leads to significant losses and a low rate of advance.
Despite the critical situation, the Armenian army continues to resist, remains motivated
The Azerbaijani attack on November 4 in the Martuni region was repelled, the Azerbaijanis lost several armored vehicles. Fighting intensified in the north on the Murovdag ridge, adjacent to the Vardenis-Mardakert road.
Probably, the Azerbaijani command, which cannot deploy all its forces in the mountainous regions, will stretch the reserves of the Armenians, attacking in other available directions.
However, the Azerbaijanis continue to bite the defenses in the directions of Shushi, Martuni, and Chartar. Also, Shushi’s coverage from the flanks is obvious. The Azerbaijani offensive continues, but the ability of the Armenians to stop it still depends on the main thing: the fight for air supremacy.
Where did the bayraktars go?
Since November 3, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry has drastically reduced the number of new airstrike videos. On November 5, there was not a single video, not Bayraktarov, not kamikaze drones, not Su-25, that the Azerbaijanis began to use actively. The Armenian units are not hiding, driving Azerbaijanis off the road, clearly unafraid of air strikes.
A complex of factors plays a role.
First of all, about Karabakh in the Shushi region, right now, judging from the video, the low clouds and the rain in some places. That is, the drones must descend below the clouds, so that they can be detected and hit by various types of weapons. The efficiency of the Bayraktar optical location station will be low and the drones will be heard and seen perfectly.
Second, this means that Armenia’s air defense systems continue to function. Otherwise, instead of Bayraktars, Azerbaijan could use Su-25 manned attack aircraft, optimized for operations from low altitudes and equipped with guided bombs, in the key direction. But attack aircraft in such conditions also do not direct, leaving the infantry to discover it on their own. This means that there is still a high risk of being knocked down.
The weather will remain inconvenient for drones for the next three days, although the clouds will clear, but on November 9 and 10 the clouds will disappear completely and the forecast promises a sunny day. If the Armenians managed to use this time to strengthen the air defense, read, for the delivery of Buk-M1-2 and Tor-2MKM to Stepanakert, then the Bayraktars will not be able to fire, and it will be obvious if the air defense will be able to stop the drones and attack planes. Otherwise, the Bayraktars will quickly eliminate the defense from the open heights above Shusha. Shusha is under attack, and her downfall is a matter of the near future, the city has actually become the scene of battles. And then, very close, is the capital of Karabakh, Stepanakert.
The Ministry of Defense of Armenia showed the real situation
The Armenian Defense Ministry began to report objectively on the depth of the advance of the Azerbaijani troops. As you can see, the demonstration of the truth did not cause panic in Armenia. The country and the combat army are fully aware of the critical situation in Karabakh. Despite the obvious defeat for all, the Armenians are showing a fighting spirit and reserves continue to flow to the front. An instructive lesson. At the same time, following the example of Azerbaijan, as of October 29, Armenia stopped publishing the daily lists of victims. And this is another instructive lesson. Human losses on both sides remain significant.
The battle for Karabakh continues, no one wants to retreat, neither side shows signs of a moral collapse, both armies maintain their combat effectiveness, but after a turning point in the road battles, Azerbaijan’s advantage continues to grow .
Text published with permission of the author
Original
Join our Opinions NV telegram channel
