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Based on the results of the US elections, it will be determined whether Donald Trump will continue his work as president for another 4 years or will cede the chair to his opponent Joe Biden. As past elections have shown, the outcome of the vote can be unexpected, despite the qualifications of the candidates. Details about the course of the electoral process and its results – in RBC-Ukraine.
US Election Results: Voting Results in 29 States
At the moment, according to CNN calculations, the winner of the election has already been determined in 25 states and the District of Columbia. Democrat Joe Biden is slightly ahead of current Republican President Donald Trump.
Biden gets 192 votes in the Electoral College, Trump 108. To win, 270 seats are needed.
So Biden should win in Vermont, New Hampshire, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Jersey, Delaware, Colorado, New Mexico, Illinois, Washington, Oregon, California, and the District of Columbia.
Trump wins in West Virginia, South Carolina, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, Wyoming and Utah.
The result of the vote in several undecided states that determine the outcome of the elections is still unknown. In most of them, the incumbent president is in the lead, but after counting all the ballots sent by mail, the situation may change in the direction of his opponent.
Thus, in Pennsylvania, 38% of the votes were counted, Trump bypasses Biden for 13% of the votes. North Carolina handled 93% of the ballots, Trump wins by 1.1%. In Florida 94% of the votes were counted, Trump is going for 3.5%. Ohio handled 82% of the vote, Trump’s lead was 6.9%. In Michigan, 39% of the vote was counted, Trump outnumbering Biden by 10.8%. In Wisconsin, 41% of the votes were counted, Trump misses the opponent by 2.3%. In Texas, 83% of the votes were counted, Trump’s lead was 4.5%.
Minnesota handled 42% of the vote, with Biden beating his opponent by 19.4%. In Iowa, 43% of the votes were counted, Biden’s lead was 13%.
When will the results of the US elections be known?
The popular vote of the presidential candidates was scheduled for November 3, 2020. Preliminary results will appear a few hours after the closing of polling stations. As a general rule, the winner’s name is announced the next morning.
However, this year, due to the coronavirus pandemic, up to 100 million Americans have chosen an alternative voting method. Voters can fill out ballots ahead of time at polling stations or mail them in. According to experts, it is this voting method that can delay the vote counting process.
How the result is determined
In the United States, there is an indirect voting system, so it is important what the results will be in each specific state.
The result of the elections does not depend on the support of one of the candidates by a simple majority of voters, but on the number of voters who will vote for the candidate in the Collegium.
Depending on the population, each state has a certain number of voters. The most populous states have the greatest influence on the outcome of elections.
Voters represent the will of the voters, that is, they are obliged to vote like the majority of the residents of their state. For example, the number of voters in Texas is 38, and all must support the candidate who received the most votes in the given state during the general election.
The Electoral College will take place on December 14. In total, it includes 538 representatives, so a presidential candidate must receive 270 votes to win.
The official announcement of the name of the next president will take place on January 6, and the inauguration and inauguration will take place on January 21, 2021.
Who was in the lead in the ratings before the election
The front lines of all the national ratings were filled by Democratic candidate Joe Biden. At different stages of the election campaign, his position fluctuated, but he constantly maintained his advantage over his opponent Donald Trump.
According to a CNN poll on October 26, 54% of Americans supported Joe Biden and 42% supported Donald Trump. Reuters / Ipsos released similar rating data: 52% for Biden versus 45% for Trump. A slightly smaller gap between the candidates in Emerson’s rating: the Democratic representative had 50% support and the Republicans, 45%.
At the same time, in a daily Rasmussen Reports telephone poll on October 29, Joe Biden was ahead of Donald Trump by just 1 point (48% versus 47%).
The RCP resource publishes the dynamics of the consolidated rating of all national electoral polls. Despite the increase in Donald Trump’s positions since mid-October, the current level of support for the president is 44.0%, while Joe Biden has the support of 51.2% of the voters.
Candidate ratings (data from realclearpolitics.com)
According to the FiveThirtyEight analytics platform, Joe Biden has an 89% chance of winning. These data were obtained from 40,000 simulations of the electoral model.
It is worth noting that the level of support for candidates in the states is also important to consider when predicting election results.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Florida, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio are the “swing” states in the 2020 election. In them, candidates have about the same level of support.
The same situation is observed in:
- North Carolina (Trump 48.6%, Biden 50.7%)
- Arizona (Trump 47.8%, Biden 50.9%)
- Georgia (Trump 49.2%, Biden 50%)
In the states that voted for Trump in 2016, Biden currently leads by a wide margin.
- Wisconsin (Trump – 45.5%, Biden – 53.6%)
- Michigan (Trump – 45.4%, Biden – 53.5%)
How were the 2016 presidential elections?
The last US presidential elections were held on November 8. Republican Donald Trump succeeds Barack Obama as head of the White House, who has completed his second presidential term.
The main opponent of Trump was the representative of the Democratic Party, Hillary Clinton, it was she who was rated as the most popular candidate among voters. Nine candidates ran from the “third” forces (Gary Johnson, Jill Stein, Evan McMullin, Darrell Castle, Colin Powell, John Caseick, Ron Paul, Faith Spotted Eagle, Bernie Sanders).
Clinton led the way in all electoral indexes and received nearly 3 million more votes from Americans in the general vote: 48.2% to 46.1%.
However, the Electoral College votes were distributed differently: With the support of 304 voters, Donald Trump won the presidential election (Clinton obtained 227 votes). At the same time, 7 voters turned out to be “unreliable”, despite the results of the general elections in their states, two did not vote for Trump and five, not for Clinton.
Furthermore, the outcome of the elections was influenced by the fact that in traditionally “democratic” Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2016 elections, Republican Trump managed to win by a narrow margin. Trump won 1.2% in Florida, one of the most populous states with 29 voters.
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