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The growth of the dollar will continue
Over the next week, a moderate rise in the dollar against the hryvnia is expected. A dollar in the interbank market can be traded in a week for around 28.6 UAH, and a dollar in cash in banks can be traded for around 28.5 / 28.7 UAH.
Vadim Iosub, a senior analyst at Alpari, said this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
As the analyst noted, the NBU said that one of the main factors in the weakening of the hryvnia in the fall was the intensification of demand for foreign exchange from importers, but there is no pressure on the cash market: the population sells more foreign currency than the ones you buy.
According to the regulator, the rate will continue to float and will depend on the supply-demand balance. To reduce exchange rate risks, the National Bank advises companies to use this hedging instrument more actively as a currency forward contract.
During the past week, the dollar against the hryvnia rose moderately in all segments of the foreign exchange market by 0.4-0.6%.
Therefore, from Friday to Friday, the official US dollar exchange rate set by the NBU increased from 28.27 UAH to 28.44 UAH (+ 0.6%). The demand / supply of the dollar in the interbank market, according to the company “UkrDealing”, during the same time increased from 28.31 / 28.33 to 28.45 / 28.46 (+ 0.5%). Average rates for buying / selling dollars in cash at banks increased during the week from 28.23 / 28.44 to 28.37 / 28.56 (+ 0.5% / + 0.4%). At the same time, the spread between the average sale and the average purchase remained at the level of 0.7%.
As RBC-Ukraine reported, the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) sold $ 147.50 million on the interbank foreign exchange market during the week of October 26-30, 2020. However, the sale of foreign currency by the National Bank could not contain the fall of the hryvnia. The dollar exchange rate on the interbank market at the end of the week rose above 28.50 hryvnia, to a maximum since the beginning of the year.
According to the NBU, the official exchange rate of the hryvnia against the dollar at the end of the third quarter of 2020 compared to the end of the second quarter of 2020 fell by 6%. Since the beginning of the year, the hryvnia has depreciated by almost 20%. The determining factor that caused the devaluation of the hryvnia in the third quarter of 2020 was the deterioration of the situation in the foreign exchange market, due to the growth in demand for foreign exchange in a context of deteriorating expectations.
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