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The dollar exchange rate grows with the current news about the decision of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine on NAPK and the budget deficit.
On October 28, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 3 kopecks and the interbank market closed at 28.395-28.41 UAH / $. The ticket offices reacted to this with a small margin. Average cash rates increased by 5 kopecks:
- up to UAH 28.50-28.60 / $ – on sale;
- up to 28.20-28.35 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Trading on the interbank market was very active and more like the flight of foreigners from Ukraine. Since non-residents were actively buying the dollar. Thanks to its activity, the volume of operations in the interbank market went from $ 110 million to $ 152 million.
“There is a collapse of world markets, especially in Europe: our trading partner, therefore, non-residents are leaving emerging markets, including ours. If the quarantine tightens, the deals must be closed before hardening,” he commented the head of the Forex Club analysis department on the situation to “Strana”. Andrey Shevchishin.
He believes that the current news adds to nervousness in the market, which does not please foreigners and foreign creditors of Ukraine.
“I mean the messages about the decision of the Constitutional Court on the electronic declaration, on the large deficit of the state budget, on the not very good state of the agricultural market,” Shevchishin added.
Citibank, ING Bank and Raiffeisen Bank Aval were selected from the number of currency buyers. And of the sellers: state banks and the National Bank.
The regulator sold the dollar at 28.41 UAH / $ and gave enough money from its reserve: some treasurers estimated its sales at $ 40 million, others at $ 50 million.
“Exporters today received a large payment in the framework of VAT refunds: 5.6 billion UAH at a time. Therefore, they were not in a hurry to sell their earnings in foreign exchange, they clung to the dollar. This is a common thing in a situation like that. Therefore, the NBU had to come to the fore and support the hryvnia, “he said. Vasily Nevmerzhitsky, financial analyst at “Strana”.
Bankers believe that today the State Treasury made the last major VAT payment. But the market is not expected to stabilize quickly afterwards. According to various estimates, a company can digest a payment of 5.6 billion UAH over several days. Therefore, at the end of the week, active dollar sales from exporters may not resume.
Therefore, the treasurers expect more foreign currency sales from the National Bank tomorrow. On October 29, the interbank market is expected to open in the range of 28.39-28.42 UAH / $, and the movement of the rate is allowed at 28.44-28.45 UAH / $. And in a couple of days, it can increase even more.
“If the NBU does not stop the failure of the quotes (active currency sales), then we will go to 28.5 UAH / $. This target has been and still is,” says Andriy Shevchishin.
Markets fell due to COVID-19
The exchange rate of the euro on the world market has fallen significantly today: from 1.1829 dollars / € yesterday to 1.1756 dollars / €. During the day, the stock traded at $ 1.1718-1.1798 / €.
Investors were negative. Prices on European stock exchanges fell all day, and at night the indices showed the following fall:
- German DAX: 4.19%;
- French CAC 40: 3.37%;
- British FTSE 100 – by 2.51%.
Markets are under pressure from news about the increasing scale of the Covid-19 epidemic and increasing mortality. As well as reports that Germany and France are preparing restrictions similar to the first quarantine bans.
In this context, the political risks in the United States on the eve of the presidential elections do not seem so serious and traders prefer to buy the dollar. Because the euro is falling.
In Ukraine, the cash rate of the European currency today lost from 5 to 10 kopecks and fell:
- up to 33.55-33.75 UAH / € – for sale
- up to 33.10-33.30 UAH / € – for purchase.
We will remember, “Strana” wrote about how on October 27 Naftogaz shared the dollar with foreigners, but raised its rate to the hryvnia.
