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Despite record gas reserves in the underground storage facilities, payment prices will be record high. Open source photos
Immediately after the elections in Ukraine, gas prices for the population rose sharply. In November, Naftogaz set the price at 6.33 hryvnia per cubic meter, which is 35% higher than the previous rate. Recall: in October, the price did not rise, which many experts associated with the election campaign. That is, now Ukrainians have been given a “double price increase”, both for October and November.
Prices from most other providers are even higher. For example, Lvvenergosbyt – 6.62, Teplobud – 6.52, hryvnia, Gazpostachservice – 7.03, Askania Energy – 7.25, Ivano-Frankivsk Gazsbyt, Khmelnitskgazsbyt, “Chernigovgazsbyta”, “Nikolaevgazsbyta subway” – 8.8-8.9 cubic hr. “Kievoblgaz” put a price of 8.82 hryvnia. And this without the cost of transportation.
“The price of gas for the population in the Kiev region in November: gas – 8.82 hryvnia, delivery – 0.97 hryvnia. The final price – 9.79 hryvnia per cubic meter. The elections are over,” wrote the deputy head of the parliamentary committee Oleksiy profile on Facebook. Kucherenko.
In other words, in fact, Ukraine is entering the new heating season with a gas price for the population close to last year (8.55 hryvnia per cubic meter), or even higher. If this continues, then, in the dead of winter, the price will reach the level of 10-12 hryvnia per cubic meter, which is significantly more than what experts previously predicted.
The new prices are relevant for consumers who have gas boilers in their homes (mainly the private sector), as well as for “kitchen” gas.
For Teplokommunenergo, the PSO price of gas is still in force this heating season. But it is also growing, although not as fast as the rate for the population. For October (no November price yet), the increase is 24.4%, to 5374 hryvnia per thousand cubic meters, excluding VAT and transport costs. And since the price of the PSO is linked to the prices of European hubs, which have been increasing constantly since September, it will also grow.
This means that already in January, Ukrainians run the risk of receiving new payments for space.
This despite the fact that “Naftogaz” constantly has record reserves of gas in underground storage, bought for another 3 hryvnia per cubic meter. And it even intends to export this cheap gas back to Europe.
“Strana” found out why gas prices soared and what would happen to rates for heating and hot water.
6 thousand hryvnia for a house and up to one hundred, for a stove
In Naftogaz, the increase in gas prices for the population is explained by the seasonal increase in prices at European sites. Since our gas price tags are tied to import parity (quotes on the Dutch TTF exchange plus delivery and Naftogaz margin, taking into account the current dollar rate), they change following current European quotes.
The latter really started to grow. If gas was sold in Europe in August for less than $ 100 per thousand cubic meters, now it is around $ 140. Given that there are no large gas reserves in Europe this year (unlike in the past, when there was uncertainty with the transit of Russian gas and traders were buying at the maximum), the price is likely to continue to rise. In addition, Ukraine focuses on the spot market, where they sell “leftovers” at maximum prices.
On the TTF exchange, which Ukraine is targeting, prices have risen by about 20% over the last month. This is related both to the start of the heating season and to other factors, in particular with a decrease in supply due to the strike by Norwegian gas workers, a reduction in the supply of US liquefied gas, etc. Furthermore, world gas prices are growing due to the revitalization of the Chinese economy. On the Ukrainian Energy Exchange, the price of gas with delivery for November in hryvnia and VAT included on October 26 was 6, 6 thousand hryvnia, while supplies for October were sold at 5.9 thousand hryvnia, that is , there is an increase in price, but it is less than 35%.
And the current price hike is most likely not the last.
“We can expect the price of gas for January 1 and 9500 hryvnia per thousand cubic meters”, – says the head of the department of housing and communal infrastructure of the Public Council of State Administration of the city of Kiev Oleg Popenko.
“We will soon reach 7.5 UAH per cubic meter, excluding VAT and shipping fees. In high season, the price can go up to 8-9 UAH per cubic meter,” predicts Yuriy Korolchuk, analyst at the Institute for Strategic Studies. . That is, taking into account taxes and transportation, the final price for individuals can go up to 10-12 hryvnia per cubic meter, which is significantly higher than last year.
For example, if heating an average house of 100 square meters (consumption – about 500 cubic meters per month) last winter cost about 3 thousand hryvnia per month, then this will have to pay up to 5-6 thousand hryvnia.
Cooking gas will also go up in price, although the difference in money there does not hit the wallet as much as in the case of heating. 10 cubic meters per month (average consumption of cooking gas per family) at the November price is 70-90 hryvnia per cubic meter (depending on the provider), and in October people will pay up to 60 hryvnia.
Plus 30% upon payment
It is not yet clear about heating rates for residents of high-rise buildings. For Teplokommunenergo, the PSO price is still valid for this season. Now it is about 5.4 hryvnia per cubic meter (for comparison: in August it was 2.9 hryvnia per cubic meter). And with taxes and transportation – already above 6.5 hryvnia. And this price will also be revised monthly and will increase following the European quotes, although not as fast as the market prices for the population. According to the forecasts of experts, in January the price of PSO will reach the level with which the last heating season began: 8.55 hryvnia per cubic meter, but it may be higher.
And since other components of the rate (wages, network repair costs, etc.) have increased during the year, prices for heating and hot water will also go up. Teplokommunenergo, with whom Strana spoke, says they will at least raise the issue of increasing tariffs. That is, heating and hot water for a standard 50-square-meter piece of kopeck this winter can generate up to 3,000 hryvnia per month or more.
It should be noted that the issue of tariffs in Ukraine is a complete disaster. There is a current decree of the Cabinet of Ministers, which states that the rate for the new heating season must be calculated at the average price of gas for the last season, which is a little more than 4 thousand hryvnia per thousand cubic meters. But it seems that no one will comply, – says the head of the Housing Union of Ukraine Alexander Skubchenko.
Not long ago, NERC approved heating and hot water rates for a number of teplokommunenergos, which include “real gas prices.”
But they will not work everywhere, but only in houses that have new contracts with vendors (such contracts exist in high-rise buildings with condos or managers). In addition, they want to completely transfer the function of determining rates to the localities. And teplokommunenergo will push for them to be reviewed and plan to send out new payment orders starting in January.
“Most heat and power plants submitted for approval heating rates at a gas price of up to 7000 hryvnia per thousand cubic meters. Therefore, we should expect new rates for heat between 20% and 30% more. higher than now in January, “Popenko said.
“Gas racket”
Many Ukrainians may not be able to pay the new fees. According to Yuriy Korolchuk, we should expect an increase in debts (for heating and hot water, they have already exceeded 50 billion hryvnia). In the private sector, the process of people who refuse to heat with gas is intensifying. “They will switch to firewood and alternative sources of heating, and when this is impossible, they will keep the temperature to a minimum, they will just freeze to save money,” says Korolchuk.
At the same time, according to him, Naftogaz could well have kept the price tags. “It is not clear why we should be tied to the current price of European gas if we have 14 billion cubic meters of domestic gas,” he says.
According to Skubchenko, Ukraine has accumulated record gas reserves in storage facilities (about 28 billion cubic meters), and most of it was bought at summer prices, up to 3,000 UAH. “Therefore, such a record price increase can be perceived as true organized gas crime,” he says.
Yuri Korolchuk agrees with the expert. “Our biggest problem is Naftogaz. At the same time, the state withdrew from solving the gas problem. Although the AMCU itself could simply calculate an economically justified price, taking into account national gas, the cost of buying imported gas, etc. . ” – to fine “Naftogaz”. Perhaps then the prices would have become less record “, – he said.
It is interesting that Naftogaz itself is considering the idea of selling “surplus” gas in the European market, that is, from an importer to an exporter.
“This year, the filling level of Ukraine’s gas storage facilities will reach the highest level in the last ten years. Consequently, on the part of the UGS operator, we have done everything necessary to ensure that the next season of heating runs without crisis. We do not exclude that in case of a favorable situation on the European market, Ukraine will start its gas export to the EU. The national facilities of UGS currently have sufficient reserves not only to provide heat to Ukrainians, but also to receive additional income from the sale of gas abroad “, the press service of the company quotes the words of the acting director of Ukrtransgaz Serhiy Pereloma.
“It is possible that this is a sale through European traders. And since the surplus is considerable, Naftogaz will have to offload and sell gas to Europe for $ 70-90. At the same time, the Ukrainians will pay $ 300 per thousand cubic meters and more, “he added. summarized.
