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A rally of the Belarusian opposition on October 25. Photo from the portal tut.by
Today in Belarus, the opposition promises a “decisive attack” against President Alexander Lukashenko.
Former presidential candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya presented him with an ultimatum two weeks ago. And today his mandate expires. But the father obviously did not comply with the conditions: he did not leave his post and did not open the prison.
But so far the realism of Tikhanovskaya’s threats is questionable. Given that the Belomaidan demonstrations gradually disappeared throughout October, it is unclear whether the opposition will be able to bring their protests back to life.
We were figuring out what to expect from the People’s Ultimatum action.
Tikhanovskaya Ultimatum
On October 13, opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, who considers herself president of Belarus, gave Lukashenko two weeks, giving him an ultimatum on three conditions.
She said the father had to step down from power on October 25, after freeing the opposition from prisons and taking OMON off the streets. Otherwise, starting Monday, the opposition will start blocking roads across the country and also threatens to stop factories in a national strike.
“Belarus is stronger than the regime. Since they were waiting for an order, here is an order. And the deadline for its execution is until October 25,” Tikhanovskaya said.
It is interesting that such a harsh statement was made after Lukashenka’s conversation with opposition members detained in the KGB pre-trial detention center.
It was a request for a split in the opposition camp by the authorities. That, apparently, Tikhanovskaya considered a threat and decided to announce a new “super action” to cement unity in the anti-Lukashenka ranks.
Three days after the ultimatum, the Belarusian authorities put Tikhanovskaya on the international wanted list. He claims that he is taking steps to undermine national security.
In other words, the response to the former candidate’s demands was eloquent.
What will be the new actions of Belomaidan
Since the time of the ultimatum, the protests in Belarus have not been overly widespread, but rather fierce. It was evident that a “loaded” asset remained in the streets, which was enabled for any type of confrontation. However, the power superiority of the authorities was obvious.
And so the opposition has designated its actions for October 25-26, the time of the expiration of the Tikhanovskaya ultimatum. On social networks, they began to distribute characteristic posters-ads:
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The action “Ultimatum of the People” will begin on Sunday at 2:00 p.m.
“Minsk will meet in the center. Cities throughout the country, where it is difficult to meet because of the banditry of the punishers – support with flags, local actions and solidarity chains in the regions,” reads the statement from the Nekhta Telegram channel, recognized as extremist in Belarus.
The event is planned as a march. In other words, the format is the traditional one for Sunday opposition processions, with no news.
Interestingly, October 25 is a historic date not only for the opposition. The fact is that this is the last day until the authorities collect proposals from the society on the new constitution of Belarus. Changing the basic law is a condition that Lukashenka expressed for the reelection of the president.
Yesterday, the Opposition Coordinating Council announced that there is no need to change the constitution now, the processes launched by the government are premature. That Lukashenka must go first. In other words, Tikhanovskaya’s supporters oppose re-election going according to the authorities’ scenario.
This means that the opposition’s march will be latent against the constitutional process initiated by Lukashenka.
As the father himself said, the functions of the president as a result of these changes may decrease. What can become a compromise option for energy transit in the country. But the opposition is unlikely to break into the executive branch. This is what triggers your rejection of changes.
Lukashenka’s answer
A parallel demonstration in support of Lukashenka would become one of the counterattacks of the country’s government. The Federation of Trade Unions was going to organize it.
But on October 23, the president said it would be better not to carry it out, there is a threat of collapse on the streets of Minsk.
According to Lukashenko, he called Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko and asked him to “consult” with the governors. “We don’t need to gather people in Minsk. It will be a collapse,” he said, noting that between 250 and 300,000 participants from all over the country expressed their desire to attend the event.
“A man is going to support the Old Man, but he also wants to see the Old Man. But how will he see him? I thought he would perform in Oktyabrskaya Square. Well, 15 thousand will see me,” Alexander Lukashenko explained. He also added that some of the participants in his rally are older people, and this is dangerous from a coronavirus point of view.
At the same time, the Minsk public services dismantled the scene in October Square, which was supposed to become the focus of pro-government action.
It is difficult to say why such a decision was made. The opposition claims that the authorities were unable to gather people for the demonstration. Which does not seem very realistic: the experience of the previous “Batskamaidans” shows that a decent number of people gathered for these rallies (although not as many as among the opposition).
Another explanation is that the authorities are preparing to resist the actions of the opposition, which can follow an unpredictable scenario. And two parallel rallies can create confusion and infatuation in the city. In addition, additional security officers should be assigned to protect Batkamaidan, which will be helpful in controlling the main opposition march.
If these considerations were taken into account, Lukashenka is most likely preparing for large-scale opposition rallies or a fierce confrontation with his individual groups.
What to expect in Belarus from October 25 to 26?
The opposition has not been able to demonstrate great strides on the street front in recent weeks. Belarusians are tired of the protests and the streets are colder. And the forceful pressure on the protesters does not stop.
The previous strategy of organizing a national strike also failed, so there are doubts that the new strike will be on a large scale.
During the two months of protests, many opponents clearly saw that Lukashenka was not going anywhere. And the probability that he will be removed from power at this point is zero. And the rebirth of marches towards a revolution is full of blood. That repels the non-radical part of the population from the protests.
In addition, it is noted that in the world, although they talk about the illegitimacy of the reelection of the father, they do business with him. So yesterday he got a call from the head of the US State Department, Mike Pompeo. It was about the release of a US citizen who worked for the opposition.
It is significant that this conversation took place on the eve of the actions in Minsk. That is, they most likely were discussed. It is true that it is not known in what way.
The only moment that can bring the actions back to the previous level is the preparation that the opposition has been carrying out for almost two weeks. And also the rhetoric of the protest organizers, who make it clear that today’s Belomaidan is almost the last chance to influence the government.
It is not known whether a decision will be taken to move the protest to a forceful phase, with the storming of buildings and attacks on the security forces, as was the case in Ukraine.
This option cannot be ruled out and the security forces are preparing for it.
It is also interesting that the day before the rallies, the US embassy in Minsk asked its fellow citizens living in Belarus to stock up on food and medicine.
If all goes well as usual, today’s protest will change little. And it will look like another (and possibly the last) attempt to revive Belomaidan before the onset of severe cold.
