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Local elections will be held in Ukraine on October 25.
“Strana” has already figured out how to vote for them during the coronavirus pandemic.
However, the questions about voting are not just about the number of ballots and sanitizers in the voting centers. The main intrigue is the results of the next elections.
We look at the top five issues that come up on the eve of the vote.
1. Will incumbent mayors win in a round?
In cities with a population of more than one million in Ukraine, mayors have strong positions. However, not everyone will be able to win in the first round.
Which creates a threat for them to drop out of the race.
After all, it is more difficult to win in the second round of elections, as his anti-rating begins to put more pressure on the incumbent mayor. The entire protest electorate is not dispersed among many candidates, but rather goes towards a single opponent, which creates additional weight for him.
Let’s analyze all the major cities.
Kiev. The Mayor’s Office is doing everything it can to win at once.
Sources from Klitschko’s team told “Strana” that staff officers placed special emphasis on increasing turnout, which, in theory, will help get the percentage to win in the first round.
True, this may not work if the coronavirus continues to break new records in Kiev. Many are simply afraid to go to the site. Therefore, the intrigue remains, and the chances of a second round of elections for the mayor of the capital are very high.
The experts name several possible candidates for the second place: candidate of the Servant of the People Irina Vereshchuk, showman Sergei Pritula (of the Golos party), Andrei Palchevsky (coming from his party) and a candidate of the Opposition Platform – For Life, ex- the head of the state administration of the city of Kiev Alexander Popov.
Popov, according to representatives from various headquarters that “Strana” spoke to, is now gaining weight and could well move on to the second round. He bases his campaign on the fact that he developed the infrastructure of Kiev, when he was the head of the Kiev City State Administration, opened the subway and new exchanges. And this, in fact, distinguishes him from almost all other candidates, except, perhaps, the former mayor of Kiev Omelchenko (but his rating is now small in the city).
More details on the Kiev designs – in the material “Strana” Coronavirus and Klitschko. What is the balance of power in the Kiev elections and how does the epidemic affect them?
Kharkov… At the beginning of the electoral campaign, Gennady Kernes won in all the polls in the first round.
His closest competitor is Alexander Feldman, representative of the Opposition Platform.
The level of support for the incumbent governor, candidate of the “Servant of the People” Aleksey Kucher is lower.
However, after the coronavirus was found in Kernes at the end of August and he was hospitalized in serious condition at the German “Charite” clinic, the situation in the city became very confusing.
Rumors spread that the mayor had lost the ability to speak and was already incapacitated. In other words, he will not be able to fulfill the duties of mayor if he wins the elections. Kernes’s family and associates say he is able to work and is improving. However, despite numerous promises, they have yet to provide video evidence of their words. Which leads to new conversations that the mayor is in very poor condition and his relatives are misleading the residents of Kharkiv.
It is difficult to say how this situation will affect the elections and if support for the mayor and his political strength will decline. And he will be able to win in the first round, as planned. If you can’t, in the second round there will be even more questions about your health. And if there is no evidence of the mayor’s competence, it will not be easy for him to win.
Another question is what will happen if Kernes wins the election, but cannot, for example, be sworn in and take office as mayor due to illness.
In detail what to expect in this case, “Strana” understood the article “How the illness of the mayor of Kharkov changes the alignment in the elections and who will run the city.”
Odessa. In Odessa, the level of support for current mayor Gennady Trukhanov is also quite high. However, it is not yet clear whether he will be able to win in the first round.
And if it is the second round, then your competitor may be a candidate of the “Oppoplatform – For Life” Nikolai Skorik. There are also possibilities for the former people’s deputy Sergei Kivalov and the candidate of the “Servant of the People” Oleg Filimonov.
It was in favor of Filimonov, as well as Trukhanov, that the candidate Dmitry Golubov was recently removed from the elections, who was “biting” the votes of both the mayor and the “servant.” That is, the well-coordinated work of two administrative resources at the same time is visible.
Trukhanov himself is doing his best to win in the first round. Within the framework of this program, for example, he initiates various steps popular with the townspeople, for example, Marshal Zhukov’s return to Heavenly Hundred Avenue.
On the other hand, Russia is actively conducting an information campaign against the mayor. For example, the other day on the NTV channel a devastating story about him was published.
You can read more about the pre-election situation in Odessa here.
Dnieper… Filatov leads the qualifications of the candidates. And, like other mayors, he is trying to win in the first round.
Among his main competitors are former regional governor Alexander Vilkul (who, incidentally, was Filatov’s main competitor in the 2015 local elections), local politician Zagid Krasnov and candidate Servant of the People, chief physician of the regional hospital Sergei Ryzhenko.
“Strana” understood the pre-election situation in the Dnieper in our material.
Lviv. The capital of Galicia has its own intrigue. Andrei Sadovoy and Eurosolidarity candidate Poroshenko, former regional governor Oleg Sinyutka compete for victory in the mayoral elections.
And the second round in Lviv is more than likely. It is true that Sinyutka’s chances so far seem controversial: Despite Sadovoy’s negative rating, Poroshenko’s candidate is the same official who ruled the region for several years. And there, too, claims have been accumulated against him.
On the other hand, it will have the support of the Eurosolidaridad party machine, popular in Galicia. The promotion of Poroshenko remains the main asset of Sinyutka, which may play a role in these elections.
More details about the Lviv designs – in the “Strana” material Who goes to the election of the mayor of the capital of Galicia and what are the possibilities of Sadovy.
2. How much will the “Servant of the People” take?
The main national intrigue of the elections is what result the “Servant of the People” will show. Let us remember that in the elections to the Rada, the presidential party won 40%. Naturally, no one now has that indicator.
First, the party’s rating fell across the country. Second, in local elections, many of the votes of the national parties (including the “Servant of the People”) will be withdrawn by the local parties of the mayors.
Therefore, the question is whether “Servant of the People” will be in the first place of the national ranking and by what margin. If the drop in the percentages for the president’s party is significant, and the competing parties breathe on his back (or more if they exceed it), then this will have very specific political consequences.
A low result for a party can strengthen the centrifugal tendencies in it and increase the probability of a final split of the mono-majority. On what one of the ideologues of “Servant of the people” Nikita Poturayev frankly stated the other day. And this is a direct path to the early elections of the Rada.
3. How much will the local parties charge?
The peculiarity of local elections is that the parties of mayors will receive a large percentage of them.
In this case, we are talking not only about large cities, which were mentioned above, but also about entire regions. For example, in the Vinnitsa region, through his party projects, former Prime Minister Volodymyr Groisman wants to have full control over local councils at different levels.
All this can consolidate the process of strengthening the local elites, which has been observed in recent years (you can read more about this here).
On the other hand, in most cases, the local parties will not have a “mono-majority” in the municipalities. This means that they will have to create a coalition with national parties. And with which parties the coalition will be formed is also a very important point.
4. How long will Oppo Platform take?
Oposition Platform – For Life has a good chance of elections in the city councils of the southeast of the country and even in Kiev.
And the outcome of this party will influence many political processes on a national scale.
Because it will establish the ideological vector in the municipalities on issues, for example, humanitarian policy (Ukrainianization, etc.), on the situation with local radical nationalist organizations, etc.
Regarding the elections in Donbass, we are also talking about the attitude of the local authorities towards the Minsk Accords and the plans for the reintegration of the uncontrolled part of the region (OLE is the only party that supports the implementation of the political part from Minsk).
And one thing is when the majority in the municipalities will be with the participation of “Servant of the People”. And another, when with HLE. At the same time, the mayoral parties themselves, as a rule, are de-ideologized and will adapt to the directives of their national partners.
5. How much will Poroshenko take?
Another important point is how much Petro Poroshenko’s Eurosolidarity party will take.
Because it will also mark the ideological vector of city councils. It’s true, in the opposite direction from HLE.
It is clear that the EU will not gain a decent percentage in the southeast (although, most likely, it will be represented in the municipalities). But in the center and in the West, he may well claim to join the ruling coalition in the town halls and regional councils in strong positions.
And this will influence the position of these councils both on general ideological issues and in relation to the central government. By relying on local authorities, Poroshenko & Co. will find it easier to “change” the situation in the country.
It is true that Poroshenko’s party has many competitors in this field, who are drawing votes from the EU. First of all, these are local parties (UDAR in Kiev, Sadovy’s party in Lvov). In addition, in western Ukraine there are also the Svoboda and Golos parties, as well as the For the Future party, which is close to Kolomoisky, which has local elites.
