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Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced the Ukraine poll in parallel with the local elections on October 25. How it will look and what the president can ask the Ukrainians, in the RBC-Ukraine material.
Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential campaign, in fact, was based on one main message: the future of the country should not be determined by officials and politicians, but by the people. It is true that there was no specific mechanism on how to implement this slogan in the public sphere.
After winning the elections to the Verkhovna Rada, “Servant of the People” (SN) began work on a complete package of bills “on democracy”. At the moment, the parliament has considered only one of them: in the referendum in Ukraine, and then only in the first reading.
At the end of August, one of the major sociological companies conducted a closed poll, several questions related to the attitude of voters to a certain “president’s advisory poll” during local elections. Then this idea in private conversations began to promote the CH deputies. Supposedly, the main objective is to increase participation, because some questions must refer to topics of interest to the young voter.
Time to talk
On Tuesday October 13, Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced a poll in Ukraine. He recalled that parliament is preparing to consolidate the mechanism of democracy in legislation, but so far “nothing prevents us from simply speaking frankly.”
“On October 25, at the electoral college, I will ask you five important questions. About what we discuss on the street, in the kitchen and on the Internet. What we discuss with friends, parents or taxi drivers. About things we’ve never been asked before. Five important questions. questions to get their opinion, “said the president in a new speech.
At the same time, they promised to ask the questions themselves later. Informed interlocutors of the publication say that they will appear from Wednesday, one per day. Officially, neither the Office of the President nor the Servant of the People faction disclose its content. However, RBC-Ukraine managed to uncover two possible survey topics: the legalization of medical cannabis and lowering the voting age to 16 years.
The parliamentary opposition has already criticized Zelensky’s proposal to conduct a poll on election day. Therefore, “Golos” and “European Solidarity” believe that it can be used in the interest of Russia and threaten national security, for example, if the question of the special status of Donbass is raised. In “Batkivshchyna” they called the president’s idea “a fun poll”, which is not provided for by any law.
At the same time, Bankova Street ensures that among the questions there will be “no speculation about Donbass and other classic provocative themes that are historically used by political groups in their aggressive propaganda falsifications.” The RBK-Ukraine source added that despite “fierce resistance” from individual politicians, the poll will still take place.
“The final format of the poll announced by the president is still being determined at this time, the logistics are being coordinated with all departments related to the elections. The procedure, security, the number of additional special ballots, the organizing groups of volunteers, “said the source.
Most of the criticism was caused by Zelensky’s phrase that questions will be asked at the polling stations, although there is no legal basis for this. In early September, several Servants of the People deputies submitted a bill to the Rada proposing to grant the Central Electoral Commission (CEC) the right to conduct public opinion polls. It never got to a vote.
The deputy head of the SN faction, Yevgenia Kravchuk, confirmed that voters will not be polled in the territory of the polling stations, but together with them. It will not be the CEC or the party that will get involved in this, but some “separate structure” not for budget money. According to her, the details will be provided later by representatives of the president.
According to RBC-Ukraine, the Office of the President is currently considering the following option: they want to conduct the survey in the form of an exit poll, volunteers in tents near polling stations will invite people to complete questionnaires with five questions and the options “yes” / “no” will answer. In all, 5 million of these “newsletters” are planned to be printed.
However, the question of financing this event remains open. For the first round of the 2014 presidential elections, the government also planned to conduct an advisory poll, but this idea was not supported by the Verkhovna Rada. They wanted to allocate 30.8 million hryvnia to him (about $ 2.7 million at the then exchange rate). At the same time, it was foreseen that the vote would take place at the electoral commissions’ facilities. The nationwide “from scratch” exit poll will likely cost more.
The will of the people
All we know for sure is that such a survey has no legal consequences. This was confirmed by the Office of the President. Volunteers do not have the right to record the personal data of respondents and it is also virtually impossible to control “voting”.
If we talk about the classic starting field, then it is the anonymity of the participants that ensures the accuracy of the results. But this process will be legal only if the survey is carried out after the citizen leaves the site, explained Olga Aivazovskaya, coordinator of the OPORA Civil Network, to RBC-Ukraine.
“The question is who will be interviewed and when: before or after the vote. Because if before, then this may affect the expression of the will of the voters. About 10% of citizens determine who they will vote for directly at the polling station. This figure is significant for that. to influence the final result ”, clarified the expert.
Another important issue is the credibility of the results of such a survey. The political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko is sure that if carried out by volunteers, it will become an “expensive diversion”, the results of which can hardly be used for political purposes, for example, insisting on voting on a bill, appealing to the “will of the village”. Another thing is for professional sociologists to get down to business.
“You can agree with sociological centers that will conduct exit polls to ask people across the country leaving polling stations to answer these questions. Selectively, but in large numbers, it will be a Not all Ukrainians, not complete, but a survey based on sociological methods, which As for me, this is the best option, because there will be no doubts about the result of the survey, it will be controlled by sociological structures, ”explained Fesenko.
RBC-Ukraine interviewed several large sociological companies, but they said that no one had approached them with such a proposal yet. At the same time, Vladimir Paniotto, CEO of KIIS, doubts that Zelensky’s proposed survey makes sociological sense. They say that such an exit survey will cost tens of times more than a survey with a representative sample.
According to the expert, a massive survey makes sense when you need to establish as precisely as possible the percentage of supporters of a certain initiative. According to him, a regular opinion poll gives an error of 3-5%, while an exit poll – 1-2%.
“But if we measure something and one opinion has an advantage over the second in only a small percentage, then the country is divided in half and I do not think it is worth making that decision. As for me, so far they have not been made referendums to obtain an opinion and legitimize it, sometimes even without going through parliament, through direct action, “added Paniotto.
What is the meaning of Zelensky’s idea? Fesenko believes that mobilizing the electorate is the most logical version of the authorities’ desire to conduct a poll on election day. In your opinion, in this case, at least two questions should be of interest to a young voter, one of them may refer to the legalization of medical cannabis.
The political scientist added that from the point of view of the president’s promises, it would also be logical to put to a vote the issues that relate to his constitutional proposals. Among them: reduction of the number of deputies in parliament, possibility of deprivation of the mandate and “legislative initiative of the people”.
“So far, I see this as an experiment. A non-standard Zelensky-style solution. Thus, they break the logic of the final stage of the election campaign. You can see how embarrassed everyone is now. In the last days, the issues will be discussed. questions of this survey. will work for the mobilization, “said the political scientist.
According to a September survey by the sociological group “Rating”, the basic electorate of the SN (34%) are people between 18 and 29 years old. While the latest study shows that voters in this age group are the least confident of reaching the polls on Election Day, only 41%, although a couple of weeks ago there were even fewer, 32%.
Olga Aivazovskaya explained that Zelensky’s poll will have no legal consequences, but there may be various policies.
“This may be an information wave that will dampen discussions about the inability of the electoral commissions to calculate the results, a large number of” covid “patients among the members of the commissions, etc. There may be a more lasting effect, for example, the results of this survey will form the basis of a bill that is then presented by any deputy ”, – added the coordinator of the OPORA network.
At the same time, the authorities argue that Zelensky’s idea is to “listen to the people” and determine what issues Ukrainians care about. The vice president of the Rada and one of the ideologues of the “Servant of the People”, Ruslan Stefanchuk, specified that some of the questions in this poll could later be submitted to a referendum. The profiling law is expected to be adopted in November.
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