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On October 8, the non-monetary dollar fell 10 kopecks and stopped overnight at 28.22-28.23 UAH / $. In the cash market, the “American” also fell, lost 5-10 kopecks, while banks, just in case, expanded their exchange brokers. Average box office rates were at the following levels:
- 28.35-28.55 UAH / $ – on sale;
- 28.05-28.20 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Financiers don’t really understand in which direction the exchange rate will move. Therefore, they try to hedge their bets and keep the difference between buying and selling dollars more widely.
Currency trading on the interbank market has completely weakened. Transaction volume decreased from $ 131 million to $ 98 million, which typically occurs before weekends / holidays or after changing business strategies.
“There were no large buyers of the dollar. It seems that foreigners are ending their purchases of foreign currency against dividends. Due to the small demand, no large sellers appeared either. The market was very quiet. Banks were not very active either, and the ship did not wobble. , after the other day they reduced their currency. ” reservations about the strengthening of the hryvnia “, – commented on the situation to the financial analyst” Strana “Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
The rumor was actively dispersed in the market that from next week export earnings to agricultural grain companies would begin to arrive more actively and that the volume of foreign exchange sales in the interbank market would increase.
They don’t see this as a big problem. After all, even if foreigners are not actively buying the currency, who needed the dollar to withdraw dividends and capital from government bonds, there is always a wholesale buyer like the National Bank.
After the September payments on state debt, it was seriously lost: its gold and foreign exchange reserves immediately fell by 8.7%: by $ 2.5 billion, to $ 26.5 billion. Therefore, you will replenish them with great pleasure as soon as possible.
Along the way, rumors surfaced that the truce in the interbank market was caused by the beating the regulator gave the most active speculative banks.
“It smells like educational work. The National Bank could verbally scold speculators, which, in effect, amounts to prohibiting the oscillation of the market, because nobody wants to fight with the regulator. Passions have died down, speculation is on hold. There are no strong buyers and no strong sellers, “he said. “Strana” head of the Forex Club Group analysis department Andrey Shevchishin.
There were many rumors about the scandal at the board of the National Bank, which made public the announcement of the NBU Council of a reprimand and mistrust towards two members of the old team (formed under the presidency of Valeria Gontareva): the first vice president Katerina Rozhkova and the Vice President Dmitry Sologub.
“They say they are knocking on every door and are actively complaining to NBU President Kirill Shevchenko. Including the IMF. Much resentment and anger has built up, plus there are rumors that Shevchenko has cut the salaries of two members of the NBU. together. Their initiatives and proposals in do not make the calculation, everything is done to resign. But these people simply have nowhere to go (there is not much work in the financial market), and they are also afraid to intensify the investigations of previously opened criminal cases , so they will go back to the last. Keep running constantly to the IMF and the US Embassy and call Shevchenko. So there will be a lot of conflicts, but not a lot of real work, “the chairman of the board of a large bank assured” Strana “.
If domestic scandals are made public, they can put pressure on the hryvnia exchange rate. But treasurers believe the latest hype should no longer affect the market, predicting quiet forex trading by the end of the week.
On October 9, the interbank market is expected to start at the level of UAH 28.21-28.23 / $, and trading in the range of UAH 28.20-28.25 / $.
The euro is getting cheaper
On the world market on October 8, the euro depreciated: the rate went from $ 1.1770 / € to $ 1.1752 / € after trading throughout the day between $ 1.1733-1.1782 / €.
The euro went on sale after new statements by the president of the United States, Donald Trump, about his willingness to authorize another round of aid payments to Americans in the amount of 1,200 dollars. Investors were also inspired by the published minutes of the US Federal Reserve meeting, which speaks of a more active economic recovery in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.
In Ukraine, the average euro cash rate did not change on the sale, but was reduced by 10 kopecks on the purchase. At night, he stopped at:
- 33.40-33.60 UAH / € – for sale;
- 32.90-33.10 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the dollar fell slightly, the NBU is trading with foreigners after large losses of reserves.
We also report that the IMF reacted to the NBU’s reprimands to Rozhkova and Sologub.
