Armenia Azerbaijan – what will happen to Karabakh – latest news / NV

If we look at this as the continuous process of the collapse of the Russian Empire, and we understand that the collapse is not an instantaneous act, but a process extended in time, then what we are seeing now is very interesting.

This is interesting because one can see what weaknesses of the imperial center have already manifested themselves, and the more they will increase in number: the imperial center can no longer so effectively support the territories it considers dependent on itself or its own.

The Soviet Union was the reincarnation of the Russian Empire. Compromise between the national centers and the imperial center.

How long the conflict will last, no one will tell you

Now pay attention to the Middle East. The old Ottoman Empire ceased to exist 100 years ago, but the miasma or processes associated with the empire continue. For example, Turkey’s return to the Middle East and the strengthening of its position are processes that could not have come about without the imperial legacy. You can remember the Austro-Hungarian Empire, the British, the French, all these empires (metropolis) they have phantom pains – a certain policy towards the former colonies.

Are the events of Nagorno-Karabakh an echo of the phantom pain of the Ottoman Empire? If you look at this conflict in hindsight, you can dig deeper. But I won’t do that. It is rational to dwell on the events of a century ago.

What happened a hundred years ago? The Russian and Ottoman empires collapsed, and when the peoples of the South Caucasus had the opportunity to form their own states, each nation built a strategy in its own way. I saw differently where the borders should be. The southern Caucasus is at the intersection of these two empires. 1918-21 – time of active events. The political processes were accompanied by ethnic and ethnopolitical cleansing. These processes took place in Yerevan, Baku, Zangezur, Nagorno-Karabakh, practically throughout the South Caucasus. Armenia fought a war with Georgia, Turkey for the territory it considered its own, and as a result, Turkey played a key role there. First, Porta is the Ottoman Empire, then the republican government headed by Kemal Ataturk, who, incidentally, was actively supported by Moscow, the Comintern, as the main lever to counter the Entente. And then the Entente sided with the governments of the South Caucasus countries, that is, there was a very confused conflict.

They say that Nagorno-Karabakh became part of Azerbaijan after Sovietization. But this is a little different. These processes continued continuously from 1918 to 1920. And Azerbaijan did not cede this territory. Later, when the Soviet Union returned to these territories in the reincarnation of the Russian Empire and set certain limits, this ethnic conflict was frozen. Communist leaders of various ethnicities divided these territories: one part of the disputed territories went to Azerbaijan, the other to Armenia, and they put an end to this, believing that proletarian internationalism, communism, would solve the national question.

As for the present. No one will say how long the conflict will last. Because this is a war and there are many variables in it. Depends on strategy, tactical actions, political will, allies etc. For the moment, Azerbaijan has tactical and strategic advantages. He is better prepared for this war and uses the latest military technology. International pressure on Baku will increase as Azerbaijan is carrying out an offensive operation, and much will depend on whether Azerbaijan resists this pressure or is forced to stop the counter-offensive. This external pressure is partially offset by the tough position of Turkey, which leads direct polemics with France, mainly with the United States and indirectly with the Russians. (but Less). Although the experience «sworn friendship “between Turkey and Russia in recent years, a considerable (agreement interests in Libya, Syria).

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was the first of its kind in the Soviet Union. It is very symptomatic that in this new stage it got worse and a new war broke out. U.S (post-Soviet space) have gone through a certain cycle, and we see the development of events within a new cycle. Ukraine has not yet left this space, because our territories are occupied by Russia. Consequently, we are directly dependent on the processes taking place in the Russian Federation or in satellite countries. And the more Russia spends on maintaining the status quo, the more the situation in Russia itself will be altered, the more chances we have of not only “Skip” but also to restore territorial integrity in conditions much more favorable for us. Then you have to be ready.

And one more conclusion: a new world is coming, and the war in Nagorno-Karabakh is its precursor.

Listen to the complete interview of Igor Semivolos at Dmitry Tuzov’s New Evening program in radio NEVADA: