[ad_1]
The fall will be strong, the recovery will be slow due to the setback of the reforms
The World Bank predicts the decline of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 by 5.5%. This is 2.0 pp less than the forecast for a reduction in gross domestic product, which the bank gave in April (3.5%).
This is indicated in the World Bank forecast for Europe and Central Asia.
At the same time, the World Bank expects a slow and significant recovery in the Ukrainian economy: 1.5% in 2021 (previously expected growth of 3.0%) and 3.1% in 2022.
According to the World Bank, weak growth will be observed in 2021-2022 “in the context of a slowdown in the implementation of structural reforms.”
As noted in the review, the Ukrainian economy entered the coronavirus crisis stronger and more prepared, thanks to the balanced monetary and fiscal policies of previous years.
“Early implementation of public policy measures aimed at increasing investment and maintaining macroeconomic stability is critical,” the review says.
According to the World Bank forecast, the depth of Ukraine’s economic decline will depend on the duration of the healthcare crisis, progress on major unfinished reforms, and the ability to mobilize adequate financing to meet significant debt obligations.
Recall that in October, the EBRD worsened the forecast for the decline of the Ukrainian economy in 2020 from 4.5% to 5.5%. In addition, the recovery forecast in 2021 has been lowered from 5.0% to 3.0%.
In early June, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast for a drop in Ukraine’s real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2020 to 8.2%.
.
[ad_2]