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Bankers speak of smooth growth in demand for US currency. Photo: Country
On October 2, the price of the dollar rose 2 kopecks and the week in the interbank market ended at 28.36-28.38 UAH / $. At the box office, the average rates increased by 5 kopecks:
- up to UAH 28.45-28.55 / $ – on sale;
- until 28.15-28.30 UAH / $ – for purchase.
Bankers speak of a smooth growth in the demand for US currency by the population and note a decrease in the volume of sales in dollars. People are trying to spend less than their stash of currency.
Growth rate, Naftogaz and new quarantine
There was moderate activity on the interbank currency market today, which is typical for Friday. The total volume of transactions fell from $ 225 million yesterday to $ 150 million The National Bank did not sell the dollar and the treasurers did not fully understand if the sales were from NJSC Naftogaz. But they saw Citibank buying the dollar.
“Foreigners actually bought foreign exchange, but not aggressively. It’s hard to judge why exactly: maybe from the withdrawal of capital from government bonds, or maybe from dividends. But they didn’t cause much dissonance in the interbank market. Our agricultural companies stepped up their dollar sales, and in general That’s enough. Therefore, the National Bank did not have to sell its foreign exchange reserves, “commented financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky about the situation at the auction to” Strana. ”
Today three rumors were discussed in the interbank market:
- That from NJSC “Naftogaz” expects in October transfers to the state budget at the level of 5 billion UAH. That can significantly increase dollar sales in the cashless market and strengthen the hryvnia.
- That the authorities are allowing a serious tightening of quarantine restrictions until the introduction of a new blockade (as it was in March-April), if the COVID-19 epidemic does not begin to subside in the next two weeks. And they even think of postponing local elections, scheduled for October 25, which could destabilize the political situation and stimulate the devaluation of the hryvnia. This gossip was especially actively dispersed, the impression was that it was an organized informational filler.
- The fact that the competition for the vacant position in August of the director of the department of open markets of the National Bank (responsible for the interbank market) is deliberately delayed: it was promised that it would take place in early September, after which it was postponed. Supposedly, to create the illusion of an active search, but still assign the initially prepared form. The name of the figure, however, was not mentioned, but the subject had been discussed for several days, and today it has been filled with conspiracy theories.
38 candidates for the department
To find out how the selection of the main “foreign exchange position” in the National Bank is being carried out, “Strana” made an official request to the NBU. There we were informed that the documents for the position of director of the department of open markets, which Sergei Ponomarenko (in office now – Alexey Lupine) left vacant at the end of August, were accepted until 23 September. CV and motivation letters. Now they are being considered.
“The reason for the extension of the deadline for the collection of informative material was the need for a better study of the labor market regarding the vacancy and the expansion of the circle of candidates,” explained the press service of the National Bank to “Strana” prolonged competition.
They also reported that up to 38 candidates applied for the position of department director. A lot. When asked about the timing of all applications and approval of a new director, “Strana” was not asked. But they hinted that it could be prolonged.
“The final decision on the winner of this competition is expected to be made after interviews of the NBU board members with the candidates,” says the official response of the National Bank.
It is clear that the members of the board of a structure like the National Bank have a very busy schedule and cannot spend too much time on personnel. So even if you take turns conducting the interviews, it can take more than a week. Therefore, gossipers will continue to tell stories in the interbank market for a long time about possible candidates for an important position, about their sponsors and enemies.
What’s going to happen with the dollar?
For next week, financiers predicted a new rise in the dollar. On Monday, October 5, the interbank market is expected to open in the range of UAH 28.35-28.40 / $, with a new movement of UAH 28.45 / $, if foreigners continue to buy the dollar.
In the longer term, experts offer different forecasts. For example, the Strana Telegram channel today published a forecast from a source in the Finance Ministry, who said that the authorities would try not to bring the matter up to UAH 29.0 / $.
“The rate of 29 UAH / $ is a calculated indicator. The Ministry of Finance accepts any rate that exists. The risks appear when the rate deviates strongly towards devaluation. But the Ministry of Finance minimized these risks by putting enough funds for the service. and debt repayment. Everything else is a question. For the Ministry of Finance, the key is that the hryvnia exchange rate does not exceed the critical limit of 30 hryvnia per dollar and more, then additional funds would have to be committed for the service and payment of the debt.
It is still difficult for experts to assess such expectations in government, as there are not only economic risks, but also political and epidemiological ones. However, they keep calling 29.5 UAH / $ as the “top” rate.
“There are opportunities to stay the course. But it is difficult to predict the budget and emissions policy, especially ahead of the elections and in the context of a pandemic. We will be optimistic and stick to the forecast of 28.5-29.5 UAH / $. , – told Strana Andrey Shevchishin, head of the analysis department of Forex Club Group.
Scared by Trump’s illness
The euro exchange rate rose again on the world market: from $ 1.1743 / € to $ 1.1748 / €, after moving between $ 1.1696-1.1749. In the first half of the day, investors actively bought euros and sold dollars. Markets were alarmed by the news that US President Donald Trump and his wife were sick with coronavirus. In addition, everyone remembered that this week he participated in a debate with his Democratic rival Joe Biden. Therefore, there is a risk of another infection.
This news today brought down not only the currency, but also the United States stock market, the main indices sank:
- Dow Jones – 1.11%;
- NASDAQ – 1.76%;
- S&P 500 – 1.21%.
“There are more questions now than answers, and equity markets tend to sell first and ask questions later. Until more specific news of how you feel comes out, it will be difficult for the market to recover. – Ryan Detrick, senior market strategist at LPL Financial, told Reuters about the decline.
The dollar was saved from a total collapse thanks to a positive report on the decline in unemployment in the United States, from 8.4% to 7.9%. It turned out better than the forecast, which was 8.2%.
In Ukraine, the euro exchange rate has not changed compared to yesterday:
- 33.30-33.50 UAH / € – for sale;
- 32.75-33.0 UAH / € – for purchase.
