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The new month began in the foreign exchange market with an increase in the price of the non-monetary dollar by 5 kopecks: on October 1, the interbank closed at UAH 28.34-28.36 / $. At the same time, the average cash rates did not change, and yesterday’s prices were at the box office:
- 28.40-28.50 UAH / $ – sale;
- 28.15-28.25 UAH / $ – buy.
The bankers noticed a small demand for currency from the population.
But interbank trade has been reactivated strongly. The volume of transactions jumped from yesterday’s 80 million dollars to 225 million dollars, and speculative banks, which yesterday sold their foreign exchange positions at a lower rate, are biting their elbows today. Foreign banks came out with large dollar purchases: Citibank and Russia’s Sberbank were the most active.
“Yesterday, foreigners did not rush to convert the payment received from the government into government bonds hryvnia into dollars; they closed September and paused. But they came out with purchases today. Overall, a predictable step,” commented financial analyst Vasyl Nevmerzhitsky about the situation to “Strana”.
On September 30, the Finance Ministry transferred UAH 9.6 billion to OVDP holders: UAH 8.2 billion – redemption of securities and UAH 1.4 billion – interest (coupon). Of which non-residents received, according to various estimates, UAH 1.5-1.6 billion, so they can buy about $ 53-57 million.
Somewhere, foreigners needed so much. But our exporters were not willing to actively sell their dollar. Since Monday, they have been withholding the foreign exchange earnings after receiving UAH 8 billion as part of the VAT refund. And today the State Treasury has paid 658.8 million UAH additional to this amount.
In the morning there were hopes of large foreign exchange sales by NJSC Naftogaz, which from Monday to Tuesday helped the interbank market by selling large amounts of dollars. However, according to the treasurers, he hasn’t sold much today.
Therefore, the National Bank became the main provider of foreign exchange in the market. He put the price tag at 28.35 UAH / $ and watered the interbank very generously with the dollar, until the evening: some of the transactions were made on Tom’s conditions (with delivery tomorrow). In total, according to the bankers’ calculations, the NBU sold about $ 60 million.
“Foreigners will take the entire dollar out of the market until they receive the required volume. It is difficult to estimate it correctly, but, judging by the pressure on the exchange rate, it has not yet been exhausted. But nothing, they will calm down soon. The demand for foreign exchange of our importers will soon decrease, then the demand from non-residents will not affect the market as much as the exchange rate.
This will be a turning point: the usual sales of our exporters will be enough to satisfy foreigners, the momentum will diminish. But for now, we are trading at the highest levels since November 2018, and we still have time to touch 28.5 UAH / $, “said Andrey Shevchishin, head of the Forex Club Group analysis department, in an interview with Strana.
For tomorrow, October 1, bankers forecast the opening of the interbank market within 28.34-28.37 UAH / $, and do not exclude the movement of 28.40 UAH / $ with new purchases from foreigners.
The euro is growing on all fronts
The exchange rate of the euro on the world market rose on October 1 from $ 1.1714 / € to $ 1.1743 / €, and during the day it moved between $ 1.1717-1.1770 / €.
Investors bought the European currency after the publication of statistics on the growth of the industrial PMI in the euro area to the highest level in the last two years. In this context, they did not react to a small increase in unemployment in Europe from 8% to 8.1%, as it coincided with forecasts.
They did not want to keep the dollar after new disputes over the anti-crisis program in the United States.
Democrats demanded a $ 2.2 trillion economic support program from the government, but US Secretary of the Treasury Stephen Mnuchin rejected it. He said he would give no more than $ 1.5 billion.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate increased by 10 kopecks for sale and 15 kopecks for purchase, after which it reached:
- 33.30-33.50 UAH / € – for sale;
- 32.80-33.0 UAH / € – for purchase.
Earlier, “Strana” wrote that the hryvnia ended the first day of October with a fall against the dollar.
We also found out why merchants started rewriting price tags and what would increase in price the most.
