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During the week, the dollar has risen in price another 13 kopecks. Photo: “Country”
On September 18, the non-monetary dollar exchange rate rose 3 kopecks and the week in the interbank market ended at 28.16-28.18 UAH / $. Average spot market prices did not change:
• for sale – 28.20-28.30 UAH / $;
• on purchase – 27.85-28.05 UAH / $.
Correction and new account commissions
Interbank trading on Friday was hit hard: trading volume fell from $ 230 million to $ 85.5 million. The National Bank spent most of the day selling the dollar at the highest rate of the day: 28.18 UAH / $.
The treasurers did not have a common opinion on the volume of transactions of the regulator. Some spoke of small sales volumes, up to $ 5 million, while others called a more solid amount, up to $ 20 million.
“During the day, there were also lower dollar sale rates: 28.16-28.17 UAH / $, those who needed higher volumes went to the NBU. Non-residents continue to bribe the dollar a bit. But, in general They all say: that there is a general political directive – do not raise the rate too high. The ruling party’s rating leaves much to be desired, they do not want to undermine it further by the abrupt collapse of the hryvnia. “, – explained to” Strana “the director of treasury of one of the main banks.
The current low activity of the interbank market is explained by a decrease in the population’s demand for cash and a pause after a weekly rise in the price of the dollar. Its interbank exchange rate gained 13 kopecks in one week: it went from 27.95 UAH / $ to 28.18 UAH / $. “The market should have corrected, and it happened. But banks are in no rush to reduce their foreign exchange positions. Although clients with foreign currency accounts Just today said that some banks with European capital began to introduce additional fees for settlement and settlement services. cash in dollars. That is, opening and maintaining a hryvnia card account for one person can be free, but for a dollar they charge an additional fee, and This means that banks have not figured out how to use the resource in dollars that people brings and want to recover their expenses with them. That is, the depositors already receive a payment of 0% per annum, but they still want to recover the expenses of formation of reserves and contributions to the Deposit Guarantee Fund, therefore, they began to charge an additional commission “, – said financial analyst” Strana “Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
Staff and gossip
Participants in the currency market this week were waiting to know the name of the new head of the department of open markets (in response to the interbank market), rather than the late Sergei Ponomarenko, to understand the additional strategy of the NBU. However, it does not happened.
“Everyone continues to discuss the candidacy of the replacement of Ponomarenko, and the competition for this position should have ended yesterday. However, it was extended again, as until September 23,” Nevmerzhitsky said.
For a long time, of all the applicants for the position of director of the department, two people stood out
• Director of the Department of Treasury and Financial Institutions of OTP Bank Anton Kovalenko
• Director of the Treasury Operations Department of Ukrgasbank Oleksiy Efremov.
But this week, both were removed from the accounts. Like the current performance. Director of the Department Alexei Lupine.
“The search for a new treasurer by the president of the National Bank Kirill Shevchenko somehow dragged on. He has already extended the competition several times, and this has already started to strain the market. After all, as evidenced by the disruptions in NBU’s access to the interbank market this week, this leads to uncoordinated work by the regulator at a crucial time. Therefore, everyone hopes that Ponomarenko’s successor will appear soon, “the chairman of the board of directors of one of the banks.
There were also rumors that a competition will be launched next week for the position of director of the Banco Nacional’s financial monitoring department. They say that from September 21, this place will be vacated by Igor Bereza: Strana sources said he was leaving his vacation – he wrote a letter of leave with subsequent dismissal. Therefore, next week should be the last in the NBU.
They say that Kirill Shevchenko will not only change the department heads, but will also reformat the board. Your new structure may appear in early October.
What will happen to the dollar next?
Financiers expect a new rise in the dollar next week. On Monday, September 21, the interbank market open is expected to be between UAH 28.15 and 28.18 UAH / $, and a movement of UAH / $ 28.20 is allowed.
Different estimates are given for the week, in the best case, a trade is expected within the range of 28.20-28.28 UAH / $, and in the worst case, up to 28.50 UAH / $. In addition to the usual factors, the situation can be influenced by two more important points:
• Start of the State Treasury campaign on payment of VAT refunds to companies.
• Payment on September 23 by the Ministry of Finance of interest on government bonds of hryvnia for an impressive amount: 1.9 billion UAH.
“The VAT will put a lot of pressure on the rate. Currency sellers this week are already falling, and then the hryvnia will come. Therefore, the NBU may not maintain the rate at current levels with interventions. If we fail in UAH 28.2 / $, the next target is 28.5 UAH / $. But it seems to me that it is too early to see such a course, although the prevailing political and economic factors increasingly speak of the negative, “said Andrey Shevchishin, chief from the Forex Club analysis department, in an interview with Strana.
Of the negative economic factors, he highlighted a budget deficit of 6% for 2021, which was not agreed with Ukraine’s external creditors. Nobody believes that the IMF will agree to lend to Ukraine with such a deficit.
“Even farmers have had winter crops in question. And if we talk about political factors, I would highlight the speculative discussion on visa-free travel, the legitimacy of anti-corruption bodies and a statement on the split of the mono-coalition,” Shevchishin summarized.
The euro rises again
The euro exchange rate on the world market rose slightly after several days of bankruptcy: from $ 1.1824 / € to $ 1.1862 / €. Throughout the day, the stock traded at $ 1.1826-1.1869 / €.
Investors did not like the US statistics on the labor market and current property sales, which turned out to be worse than expected. Therefore, they sold the dollar and bought the euro. Fans of the US currency hope that interest in it will be returned by the report on the growth of the consumer sentiment index in the United States: according to the forecast, it should grow from 74.1 points to 75.
In Ukraine, the euro cash rate has grown between 10 and 15 kopecks and reached:
• 33.35-35.55 UAH / € – for sale:
• 32.85-33.0 UAH / € – for purchase.
