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The visit of the Belarusian leader to Sochi took place in the context of the largest protests since the presidential elections.
Talks between Presidents Alexander Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin in Sochi ended with agreements on a new loan and intensified economic cooperation. Putin also approved plans for constitutional reform in Belarus. Correspondent.net says the details.
Credit and military exercises
On September 14, in Sochi, where both leaders have their own residences, negotiations took place face to face for almost four hours. No statements or agreements were made after its results, but at the beginning of the meeting the Russian leader said that Moscow would grant Minsk a loan of $ 1.5 billion.
“We agreed that Russia will provide Belarus with a state loan of $ 1.5 billion at this difficult time, and we will honor it. Now, as far as is known, our finance ministers are working on this at a professional level,” Putin told a meeting at the Bocharov Ruchey residence in Sochi.
The meeting was held amid protests in Belarus that began a month ago over disagreement with the election results, which the incumbent won with his traditional 80 percent of the vote.
Russia remained neutral for some time, but then sided with Lukashenka. Putin said he had prepared a reserve of law enforcement officers for possible assistance to the President of Belarus.
Lukashenka’s visit took place the day after September 13 in Minsk, the most massive protests since the second half of August, which gathered, according to tut.by, about 150 thousand people. A record number of protesters have been arrested since mid-August: 400 people, according to the Interior Ministry.
As noted in the Kremlin after the meeting in Sochi, Lukashenko is a legitimate president, and the use of force during the dispersal of protesters in Belarus was not discussed, as it is not a question of bilateral relations.
In addition, according to the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, the pool of employees of the Russian security forces will be eliminated near the border with Belarus. Furthermore, the issue of the deployment of Russian bases on Belarusian territory was not raised.
During the meeting, the presidents called Russia and Belarus closer allies. At the same time, Lukashenka pointed out that the republic needs to be closer to its “older brother”, and called the Belarusians and Russians “in fact, one people.”
“Russia remains committed to all of our agreements, including the agreements stemming from the State of the Union Treaty, on the CSTO. We regard Belarus as our closest ally and, of course, as I have already told you many times in telephone conversations, We will fulfill all the obligations that we have assumed. ” – Putin said.
He noted that Russia must fulfill its obligations, “regardless of who is in power at any given time.”
“We are in favor of the Belarusians themselves, without indications or external pressure, in a calm regime and in dialogue with each other, to understand this situation and reach a common decision on how to organize their work,” the Kremlin press service quotes. Putin.
The Russian president called on the Belarusian leader’s proposal to launch the constitutional reform in a timely and proper manner. He pointed out that thanks to the constitutional reform Belarus will have conditions for further development.
Putin also noted that military exercises scheduled for last year will begin on September 14, which should last several days. And the Belarusian leader asked the Russian president to instruct him to draw up a multi-year plan for joint military exercises.
Russia has shown that Belarusian borders are the borders of the State of the Union and “no one is allowed to ring their guns there,” Lukashenko said, stressing that he is grateful to Moscow for such support.
At the same time, he noted that the economy is the basis of relations with Russia and Minsk has always adhered to this line.
Negative outlook. Situation in the Belarusian economy
“And these events (mass protests after the presidential elections and the West’s reactions to them – ed.) Showed that we need to be closer to our older brother and cooperate on all issues, including the economy,” said the Belarusian president.
Russia is the main source of external indebtedness for the government of Belarus. At the end of the first quarter of 2020, Russian loans accounted for 48 percent of the country’s external public debt: $ 7.92 billion.
Since 2008, the Russian government and VEB.RF have granted Belarus at least eight loans. Terms of the new $ 1.5 billion loan were not disclosed.
Earlier, the Belarusian authorities began to negotiate with Russia the refinancing of a debt worth one billion dollars. The amount of Minsk’s obligations to Moscow for 2021 is $ 600 million. Belarus requested to allocate funds for refinancing for a period of 15 years.
“Regarding our economic relations, Russia remains the largest investor in the Belarusian economy,” the Russian president said at the meeting.
It is known that Russia’s share in Belarus’ foreign trade turnover in recent years has fluctuated between 48 and 49 percent.
By comparing the loan to Lukashenko and the situation with the loan to the fugitive president of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, Peskov ruled out a repeat of the “Ukrainian scenario.”
He noted that part of the funds issued to Belarus will be used to refinance the previously granted loan.
Experts Say Putin Is Pressing Lukashenka For Re-election
Bloomberg reported yesterday, citing Kremlin sources, that Putin does not believe in the overthrow of Lukashenko as a result of popular protests, but at the same time he does not trust Lukashenko himself, who was often critical of Russia before the elections, and will pressure him. so that he gradually resigned from power on terms acceptable to Moscow.
According to Andrei Suzdaltsev, associate professor at the Faculty of World Economics and Politics at the Higher School of Economics, Lukashenko’s regime will never integrate with Russia. Now, as Suzdaltsev points out, we are witnessing a third round of attempts to strengthen integration within the State of the Union. Aid from Moscow will help Lukashenka to recover, but generally will not save the situation.
“This will be an endless delay. Our support will be similar to the support we provided to Yanukovych in December 2013. Real economic integration threatens the power of Lukashenka,” the Vedomosti newspaper quotes the expert.
As the expert of the Belarusian analytical center Strategy Valery Karbalevich pointed out, two years ago, the issuance of loans to Minsk was stopped due to Lukashenka’s unwillingness to go to deepen integration.
“Now economic subsidies are coming back again due to the revolution that is taking place in Belarus,” said the expert.
Arseniy Sivitsky, director of the Minsk Center for Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy, says the Kremlin’s support for Lukashenko is not made of reinforced concrete.
“On the one hand, he (the Kremlin – ed.) Supports Alexander Lukashenko as formally elected president, on the other hand, he leaves the channels open for communication with the so-called new opposition, in whose creation the Kremlin somehow had a hand “, quoted by DW.
Political analysts interviewed by the BBC noted that during the meeting, Putin was the first to raise the issue of amendments to the constitution of Belarus. Political analyst Alexander Klaskouski believes that it is Moscow that can push Lukashenka to take some steps in this direction.
“Even the Kremlin, I think, was appalled at the brutality Lukashenka’s siloviki demonstrated in the first days after the elections. And, most likely, the Kremlin would like a more civilized solution to the internal crisis in Belarus. more likely it is the Kremlin’s initiative to initiate some kind of constitutional reform. ” , – he thinks.
Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich says Putin is persuading Lukashenka to reform the constitution and snap elections.
“But Alexander Grigorievich does not want such a scenario and is trying to get out. Today Lukashenko can promise everything. And then, if he manages to strengthen power, he will withdraw all those promises,” said the political scientist.
Political scientist Yuri Chausov agrees that the Russian side can really persuade Lukashenko to transform: “But not real, but to those who in the future could become a guarantee for Moscow that the ruler will be in command that it will correspond to Russian interests “. …
Moscow will make decisions as problems arise, believes Valery Karbalevich. According to what the Belarusian authorities have provided to the OSCE, the new constitution should be adopted in 2022, so there is time before the election of an alternative leader.
Experts do not exclude that in the future Russia will look closely at the new political figures who could replace Lukashenka.
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