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Photo: government meeting (kmu.gov.ua)
The economy will recover, but GDP will not reach the 2019 level
The Cabinet of Ministers expects the Ukrainian economy to grow 4.6% in 2021 and the nominal GDP will amount to 4.505.9 billion UAH. The corresponding forecast is included in the state budget project for next year.
This was announced by Finance Minister Sergei Marchenko during the presentation of the budget, reports the RBC-Ukraine correspondent.
The project is based on a macroeconomic forecast that was adopted by the government in July this year.
As Marchenko noted, revenue growth of 9.4% is expected. Revenues will amount to UAH 1 trillion 071.1 billion, expenses UAH 1 trillion 350 billion. The deficit is 270 billion UAH.
“We have reduced the level of deficit compared to the current year by between 1.5% and 6%,” he said.
According to him, there are no plans to increase taxes next year. The redistribution through GDP through the budget is reduced to 23.5%.
According to the project, the minimum wage will increase by 30% in 2021. An increase in two stages is planned from January 1 to 6,000 UAH and from July 1 to 6,500 UAH.
Furthermore, the document provides for an increase in the weighted average official salary of an employee of the first tariff category of the Unified Fee Schedule by 30%: from January 1, 2021 to UAH 2,670 and from July 1, 2021 up to 2,893 UAH.
The project also foresees an increase in the median salary to 13,632 UAH in 2021. Real salaries (adjusted for inflation) are expected to grow by 12.1% in 2021.
According to the government forecast, inflation in 2021 will accelerate to 7.3%.
The unemployment rate will be 9.2% according to the methodology of the International Labor Organization.
The draft state budget of Ukraine for 2021 is calculated at the exchange rate of 29.1 UAH per dollar.
As RBC-Ukraine reported, at the end of July, the Cabinet of Ministers approved the “Forecast for the economic and social development of Ukraine for 2021 – 2023”. In the baseline scenario, GDP growth is projected to be 4.6% in 2021, 4.3% in 2022 and 4.7% in 2023.
The forecast changed the parameters of state social standards for determining the weighted average minimum wage in 2021 at the level of 6,250 hryvnia (a two-stage increase from January 1 to 6,000 UAH and from July 1 to 6,500 UAH).
Recall, according to the revised macro forecast, which was prepared by the Ministry of Economy and approved by the Cabinet of Ministers on March 29, Ukraine’s real GDP will fall by 4.8% in 2020.
