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September 7, 17:03
It is possible that for political negotiations with the West, Russia will agree to renew the ceasefire. Another question: how long and complete will it be?
In August, the fate of the ceasefire in Donbass, which began on July 27, was decided. Will it be short-term and incomplete, like all previously announced ceasefires, or will it be possible to interrupt «bad boss ”with all the previous truces?
The answer to this question turned out to be ambiguous. A complete and complete ceasefire was not achieved. Lonely ceasefire violations occurred almost every day. There were other violations of the terms of the truce. In particular, the engineering team of the positions was carried out by pro-Russian militants and Russian military personnel in the conflict zone. By the way, it is very significant that the leader of the so-called «DNR “Denis Pushilin accused the Ukrainian side of precisely that violation several times (position engineering team), which was carried out regularly by the pro-Russian militants themselves. But for the most part, the truce was observed. There were no active hostilities or regular bombardments. For the first time in the entire period of the military conflict in the Donbass, there were no deaths or injuries as a result of hostilities or bombardments during the month. Ambassador Heidi Grau, OSCE representative in the TCG negotiations, noted on August 20 that «the number of violations of the ceasefire has fallen to the lowest level ever recorded by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission ”.
The ceasefire lasted 41 days: this is a record number for the war in Donbass
Throughout August, the ceasefire in the Donbass conflict zone was mainly (relatively) was observed. But it was interrupted on September 6, when, as a result of provocative bombardments by pro-Russian militants, a Ukrainian military man was killed and another wounded. The ceasefire lasted 41 days – this is a record number for the war in Donbas, which has raged for more than 6 years. But it did not become sustainable and did not lead to a complete and complete ceasefire. Once again, the ceasefire was violated by pro-Russian militants, once again confirming Russia’s disinterest in completely ending the war in Donbas.
Why was the ceasefire in Donbass broken?
More logical explanation – From the political blackmail of Ukraine in the negotiations in the TCG and in the Normandy format, Russia has switched to military blackmail.
Second possible explanation It is the influence on the electoral campaign in Ukraine. The lasting ceasefire potentially worked for the political interests of President Zelenskiy and his party. The breaking of the truce should help the pro-Russian parties – OLE and Sharia Party – in local elections to criticize President Zelensky and his party, and at the same time in propaganda. «the world “in Russian terms.
Third version (geopolitical) It is a way of pushing the West into a new round of political negotiation with Russia in the face of worsening relations due to the political crisis in Belarus and the poisoning of the Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny.
Whats Next? The most likely scenario is the return of the military situation in Donbass to the usual course of a low intensity war. But it is possible that under pressure from the West and through political negotiations with the West, Russia will accept the resumption of the truce in the Donbass. Another question: how long and complete will it be? But active attempts will be made again to cease fire in Donbas. The own experience of even a relative truce of 40 days shows that hostilities in the Donbas can be stopped if there is adequate political will on both sides.
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