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The dollar in Ukraine will continue to strengthen, photo: “Country”
A new week in the interbank market began with a small rise in the price of the dollar: on September 7, its rate rose 1 kopeck and reached 27.76-27.77 UAH / $. Spot prices at bank cashiers increased by an average of 4-5 kopecks:
- on sale – up to 27.80-27.90 UAH / $;
- on purchase – up to 27.45-27.60 UAH / $.
Cashless currency trading was not the largest due to the weekend in the United States. Labor Day is celebrated there today, so American banks are down and not processing dollar payments. So in Ukraine the dollar was bought in Tom terms (with overnight delivery) or in euros.
The volume of transactions in the interbank market fell from $ 174 million to $ 150 million, although the treasurers said that foreigners were gradually buying currency at auctions.
During the day, prices rose to 27.79 UAH / $, but then fell back. There was a possibility of falling from 27.70 UAH / $, but the National Bank did not allow it: as soon as the exchange rate reversal began, the regulator announced the purchase of the dollar at 27.73 UAH / $. According to the treasurers, in the end he bought very little, about $ 3-4 million, but he again set the trend necessary for the dollar to rise in price.
“The market receives unmistakable signals of currency appreciation and follows them. It must be fluid, without panic or interruptions. Exporters can increase their hryvnia earnings so that they increase their contributions to the state budget,” financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky commented on the situation to “Strana”.
The NBU is going to increase the rate of its interventions: on Friday, September 4, the regulator bought the dollar at 27.69 UAH / $, and today, at 27.73 UAH / $. The National Bank’s spending on interventions is increasing and, at the same time, the issuance of hryvnia through the interbank market increases: the more it pays for the “American”, the more new national currency it releases into monetary circulation. However, this sacrifice is considered justified as part of a campaign to support exports, saturate the economy with funds and fill the state budget (the more exporters earn, the more they will deduct from the treasury).
The Ministry of Finance reviewed its borrowing plans in hryvnia for tomorrow (the department does not place dollar values). It canceled the placement of 3-month bonds of the national government loan and stopped the sale of only two government bond issues, for 12 and 29 months. Therefore, a record attraction is not expected.
“It is not ruled out that several billion hryvnias will be attracted to the budget, if the state banks are interested in the securities,” Nevmerzhitsky admitted.
In the interbank currency market, a new rise in the price of the dollar is expected tomorrow. On September 8, trading is expected to open between UAH 27.78-27.83 / $, with a predictable move to UAH 27.85 / $.
Fear of a new euro issue
At the end of the day, the euro rate on the world market rose slightly, from $ 1.1811 / € to $ 1.1815 / €. And during the day, the exchanges were trading in a not very wide range: $ 1.1813-1.1849 / €.
Due to the weekend in the US and the non-functioning stock market, the dollar bought, if not actively. And the negotiation of the euro currency was not on a large scale due to expectations of new statements from the European Central Bank. This Thursday, September 10, the ECB will hold a new meeting to review the rate and other monetary decisions. For this reason, many investors decided to wait for their results and postponed important deals with the euro until later.
Most analysts predict the preservation of zero rates in Europe. However, a decline in the inflation forecast from the current 1.3% to 1.1-1.2% is not ruled out.
The Financial Times recently published a publication on the ECB’s discontent with the excessive strengthening of the euro on the world market. This has given rise to new fears in the financial market: to provoke a small devaluation of the euro, which is needed by local exporters, the issuance of a single currency can be intensified.
In Ukraine, the euro cash exchange rate on September 7 was reduced by 5 kopecks:
- on offer – up to 32.80-33.0 UAH / €;
- on purchase – up to 32.40-32.55 UAH / €.
