End of the truce. Donbass on the brink of a new climb



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End of the truce.  Donbass on the brink of a new climb

Shooting again in Donbass

For the first time in 42 days, a ceasefire was violated in Donbass; a Ukrainian military man was killed not far from Prichepilovka in the Lugansk region.

The ceasefire in Donbas lasted exactly 42 days. During this time, not a single Ukrainian soldier was injured or killed. But on Sunday, September 6, the truce was broken.

What’s next for Donbass?

Bombing

First, on September 6, the separatists fired at a Joint Forces unit in the Krasnohorivka area from an automatic heavy grenade launcher, wounding a Ukrainian soldier. On the same day, the enemy violated the ceasefire a second time, opening fire with small arms at the positions of the JFO units near Prichepilovka in the Lugansk region; a Ukrainian military man died there.

The day before, one of the leaders of the self-proclaimed “republics” Denis Pushilin announced that on Monday, September 7, his people would open fire on “engineering structures that were illegally erected (by the Ukrainian side) in the vicinity of the Shumy settlement.” , and asked Kiev to withdraw people from there. so there are no victims.

The OSCE Mission testified that it did not find any change in the existing positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Shumy settlement area compared to July 5, 2020.

No one opened fire

Reaction

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy held a special meeting on the bombing of terrorist organizations “LPR” and “DPR. Orders were issued as a result of the meeting, including Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba started an urgent conversation with Foreign Minister of the Russian Federation Sergei Lavrov.

Zelensky’s office noted that representatives of the Trilateral Contact Group held an extraordinary meeting on the situation on Sunday and will meet again on Monday.

“Ukraine has carefully studied both attacks and regards them as two separate incidents committed with a provocative purpose. We demand that Russia intervene in the situation and influence the provocative behavior of illegal armed groups in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions to maintain the ceasefire, “said the Office of the President.

Provocations

Evgeny Vasiliev, a volunteer for the Vostok SOS charity, points out that in addition to the bombings, provocations are taking place on the front line.

The volunteer also qualifies the large-scale fires in the Lugansk region as a probable provocation. “This is exactly what happened in early July, when a large-scale forest fire broke out in the Lugansk region in the Novoaydarsky district,” Vasiliev is convinced. “It is no longer a secret, it was an arson. Officially, almost no one will say about this, but we spoke with the foresters, the policemen … they say that the fire started after the enemy bombardment, the fire came out of the mined area. For several days the rescuers could not reach the place, because they did not have maps of the mined areas. The planes did not take off because there was no guarantee of silence. “

Therefore, the militants “eliminate” the Ukrainian army from its positions.

“In addition, this is how the ‘demining’ is done, because the mines that have been planted are detonated by the temperature,” says the volunteer, and points out that “everyone is trying to keep quiet, but the fire is not bombing” .

People also die from arson. During the elimination of the consequences of the fire, Sergeant Major Artem Bondarenko died.

The enemy grows stronger

The OSCE mission reports regularly record the presence of large quantities of heavy weapons along the line of contact. Using the regime of silence, the enemy powerfully strengthened their first line and their second line of defense. In particular, representatives of illegal armed groups dug trenches near Zolote-5 and Uzhovka and carried out engineering work near Svobodny and Marinka farms. This is confirmed by the OSCE reports.

Political factors

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko believes that by violating the ceasefire, the enemy may try to influence the electoral campaign in Ukraine. “The lasting ceasefire potentially worked for the political interests of President Zelenskiy and his party. The breaking of the truce should help the pro-Russian parties – OLEZ – in local elections to criticize President Zelensky and his party, and at the same time to promote peace on Russian terms, “said Fesenko.

In his opinion, the most likely scenario for a further development of events is the return of the military situation in Donbass to the usual course of a low intensity war. The own experience of even a relative truce of 40 days shows that hostilities in Donbas can be stopped if there is adequate political will on both sides.

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