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The first thing Angela Merkel did in regards to the likely new sanctions against Russia in connection with the Navalny poisoning case was to leave the Nord Stream 2 project out of the hiatus. They say, here’s the economy, there’s politics, shake, but don’t mix. Following Merkel’s subsequent declaration that Navalny had been poisoned by Novichok and Russia would have to answer questions in the context of this “crime”, new sanctions now seem inevitable.
However, it appears that the European Union has already used the entire set of economic sanctions, which may upset Russia more than the EU itself. It is difficult to invent something fundamentally new here. In the context of the evolving coronavirus crisis, any mutually damaging financial sanction not only seems stupid, but suicidal.
At some point, it appeared that the Navalny case would lead to other specific sanctions against legal persons and individual personalities. For example, the EU could “cancel” the United States’ recent sanctions against Russian research institutes that the Americans say are involved in the development of chemical weapons. And also to add a dozen or two more politicians, officials and businessmen to the sanctions list, without causing any particular harm to them or to European-Russian relations.
But the speed with which the harsh statements follow and the direct involvement of the German Chancellor in this murky story indicate that a little blood is useless. And if these are not new economic sanctions, then what? Occam’s razor tells us that there is a high probability that the simplest solution is correct. Merkel’s statement was supposed to help avoid speculation on the Nord Stream 2 issue immediately after Navalny was transported to Germany. But, apparently, the point is in this notorious tube.
The wave that Merkel raised around Navalny has already reached Washington, the main interest in blocking the Russian pipeline project. Can’t find fault with Merkel: Berlin is unlikely to actively put a spoke on the wheels of a project, from which Germany itself benefits in the first place. It is enough that Germany and the European Union as a whole do not take active steps to complete the project, while Washington will keep the sticks.
In light of the upcoming elections, Donald Trump is unlikely to seriously oppose new anti-Russian sanctions if Democrats and part of his own party insist on them. Trump doesn’t need a second Russiagate. In addition, he himself plans to actively bombard his competitor with an alternative project “Ukrainogate”, which is dedicated to financing the election campaign of the Democrats in 2016 by the Ukrainian oligarchs.
The United States can use new sanctions both against Nord Stream 2 itself (sanctions that prevent the certification and commissioning of a new pipeline), and asymmetric measures, limiting loans to Russia, increasing the costs of Russian export-import operations. denominated in dollars, etc. . P.
It is unlikely that even these serious measures can completely block the pipeline project, but, apparently, such a task is not worth it. The real goal is to delay project implementation as long as possible, allowing US oil and gas giants, which have recovered from the recent oil price shock, to deploy infrastructure for LNG delivery to Europe in the next few years. three to five years.
If Belarus can also be hacked, the main routes for gas delivery to Europe will go through the US-controlled Ukraine and Belarus, which is boiling at the crossroads. By creating an artificial gas shortage in Europe, American corporations are given contracts and an entry point to the premium market, which, it seems, has long been divided between Russia, Norway, Qatar and Algeria. The only project that could interfere with the American gas blitzkrieg is Nord Stream 2.
A logical question arises: why is all this for Merkel herself? The question is not useless and really requires clarification. Angela Merkel will leave the chair of chancellor in 2021 and the question of the successor has not yet been resolved. The intra-party crisis in the ruling CDU party and the resignation in February of Merkel’s protégé Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as party head put Merkel’s system of power built over many years in grave jeopardy. Merkel needs support more than ever.
It can be assumed that such support was promised to the chancellor of the United States. Therefore, the growing conflict between Germany and the United States over the extraterritorial sanctions against Nord Stream 2 turned out to be highly inappropriate. Demands to punish the United States for its insolence in threatening European countries with sanctions for the Russian pipe sound increasingly insistent. Perhaps the story with Navalny became for Merkel a convenient excuse to stop the growing anti-Americanism in the German establishment, which is used to making money from the importation and distribution of Russian gas and, indeed, to doing business with Russia and in Russia. as they are used to.
If we take this version with faith, then the mysterious poisoning of Navalny puts everything in its place: it helps improve the deteriorating relations between the US and Germany and, at the same time, eliminates the onerous obligation of Berlin to complete the construction of Nord Stream 2 at all costs. The German economy is contracting, as is the economy of the entire European Union, new projects can wait and political expediency encourages politicians to take atypical solutions to their problems.
