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A few months ago Ukraine and Belarus were friends. Photo of the President’s Office
Yesterday, the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko came to the Ukrainian site “Peacemaker”.
But the father personally is not cold or hot because of this. However, the fact is significant. The scandalous site is currently in line with Ukraine’s state policy, which is actively escalating the confrontation with the neighboring country.
The chill began with the presidential elections, where, according to official data, Lukashenka won. Here Ukraine, in accordance with the common position of the West, did not recognize the victory of Alexander Grigorievich.
This was superimposed on Zelensky’s personal resentment, who expected Father to extradite to Kiev the Russian “Wagnerites” captured in Minsk, who appeared there, apparently not without the efforts of the Ukrainian special services. But he gave them to Russia. And Ze received “wagnergate” in his homeland: accusations of treason and interruption of the operation of special services.
Recently, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has turned with all its might against Lukashenka. And here the reason was no longer personal resentment, but things of a more global order.
Belarus, shaken by the protest actions, began to drift towards Russia, with whom relations were fresh the day before (in addition, Father was initially playing the anti-Russian card).
But after pressure from the West, Minsk was quick to turn to the Kremlin for support. And now it is possible that the project of greater integration within the framework of the State Union, recently torpedoed by Lukashenka himself, will be revived. That is, Belarus and Russia can introduce a common currency, border protection, single authorities, etc.
That sparked a new round of tension with Ukraine. And yet, quite recently, in the fall, Zelensky almost hugged Lukashenka.
We find out what awaits Minsk-Kiev relations in the near future.
Kuleba’s Ukrainian strategy
Yesterday, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba made several statements that give an idea of what the Ukrainian authorities think about Belarus at the moment.
Judging by these statements, Kuleba expresses what the West really thinks, but he hides these thoughts with comments on free elections. Judging by the words of the Ukrainian minister, the main task of Ukraine is to prevent the strengthening of the State of the Union of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus.
He said Ukraine does not recognize the Belarusian elections that follow the West. Furthermore, the events in Minsk are now leading, according to Kuleba, to strengthening the position of the Russian Federation.
“We should think of one step, or better two steps forward. Where will the events in Belarus lead from the point of view of our security. First of all, we are talking about the potential strengthening of Russia’s positions in Belarus,” he said the minister in an interview with Gazeta po-Ukrainski.
The minister does not hide that his main concern is the closer integration of Minsk and Moscow.
“The point is, first of all, that the Belarusian-Ukrainian border does not become a zone of vulnerability. This can happen if Belarus enters Russia under the state of the union. In case one person comes to power there, which will be completely controlled by the Kremlin. Or if Lukashenka will retain power, but will weaken so much that he will not be able to say no to Russia. For example, on the question of the Wagnerists, he listened to Moscow, not to Kiev, “he said. Kuleba.
He sees the risks of Russia controlling trade between Ukraine and Belarus:
“Any weakening of the sovereignty of Belarus adversely affects the security of Ukraine. Any strengthening of Russia’s position in Belarus is an increase in threats for us. These are also economic risks, when it is possible to influence the supply of industrial goods in Ukraine”.
“Ukraine’s huge border with Belarus should not become a carefree strolling place for Russian special services or the army,” the foreign minister explained.
However, judging by the statements from Minsk and Moscow, they believe that Ukraine is not limited to statements, but is doing subversive work against Belarus.
Minsk and Moscow accusations
On September 2, Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei arrived in Moscow. He met with his colleague Sergei Lavrov, who made a harsh statement on Ukraine. Accusing her of destabilizing the situation in a neighboring country.
Lavrov said there are about 200 members of radical Ukrainian groups in Belarus.
“There is also the Trident of Stepan Bandera, there is the C14, there is the National Corps, there is the Right Sector. All these structures are actively engaged in provoking radical actions in Minsk and other cities of Belarus,” said the minister.
Extremist training camps are located in the Volyn and Dnepropetrovsk regions.
“They are trying to reduce everything to extremist provocations, they are trying to provoke law enforcement officials. We will categorically suppress such attempts, especially attempts to use multilateral structures involving Russia and Belarus to participate in such provocations,” Lavrov warned.
Belarus also did not lag behind its Russian colleagues. Yesterday, Alexander Lukashenko mentioned Ukraine in the list of countries that are trying to stoke the Belomaidan protests.
“It is (external interference – Ed.) comes from Poland, the Czech Republic, Lithuania and Ukraine, which concerns us the most. Yesterday they heard the statement of Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who openly (generally a very restrained person about it, cautious) declared what was happening at the border, ”said Father.
And today, charges of subversive labor appeared on the website of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense. There, Ukraine was called a “destructive force”.
“Various destructive forces, driven by the leadership of states such as Poland, Lithuania, the Czech Republic and Ukraine, attempted an unconstitutional change of government. Thanks to the coordinated actions of government bodies and the support of the Belarusian people for the decisions of the President of the Republic of Belarus, it was possible to save the country from illegality and arbitrariness, “said message.
In Ukraine, they commented on it as expected: they called it fake.
“In connection with another false accusation of interference in the internal affairs of Belarus, voiced by Alexander Lukashenko, we urge our Belarusian friends and partners not to succumb to information provocations so as not to fall into the trap of propaganda and forgeries. We should not look for enemies where they do not exist “, – he said in a statement from the Foreign Ministry.
The head of the department, Dmitry Kuleba, was more laconic and described these messages as “nonsense”, in reference to the data of Sergei Lavrov.
Where are relations between Kiev and Minsk going?
Now the following processes are underway in both countries.
Ukraine rejected the legitimacy of Pero Padre after the presidential elections. On the one hand, in revenge for the “Wagnerists” extradited to Russia, but mainly, following the mainstream of Western politics. And even after having called his ambassador from Minsk.
After that, Belarus began to actively discuss the issue of Ukraine’s interference in the protests. In this he had the support of Russia, which even earlier published information that it was the Ukrainians who caused the scandal with the Wagnerists, trying to entangle Minsk and Moscow on the eve of the “Lukashenka elections”.
In addition, in Ukraine, they admitted their participation in this operation (more details about this – in the Betrayal material on Bankova Street. How Zelensky and Yermak were accused of the failure of the special operation against the “Wagnerians”). And today, additional materials on this case were published, demonstrating the involvement of Ukraine’s special services.
That is, Ukraine actually intervened in the Belarusian protests even before the elections. And after Kiev failed to recognize the father as president, Minsk began exposing Ukraine’s role in Belomaidan.
And it is not excluded that the evidence will be submitted soon (or a combination of them, the Belarusian side). After all, Lavrov most likely received information about the Ukrainian nationalists in Belarus from his colleagues in Minsk.
But this is still “punctures”. So far, the matter has not reached the point of mutual sanctions, which have already been introduced between Belarus and Lithuania.
There are two scenarios at this time.
Inertial… Ukraine and Belarus will step up hostile rhetoric, but given their extensive trade ties, things will go no further. And as the protests cool down, this conflict will be forgotten.
Negative… Kiev will go to a more violent confrontation and will impose sanctions against Lukashenka like the Lithuanians. This can happen under pressure from the West, which, judging by the case of Navalny and Novichk, is going to seriously clash with Russia over Belarus. Also, this scenario can be performed in case of abnormal events in Belarus, for example, the resumption of the military confrontation and human casualties.
Then it is worth waiting for the retaliatory measures from Minsk, on which we depend for many things, for example, the supply of gasoline.
Russian… After pressure from the West, Belarus may turn sharply to the East and sign new agreements with Moscow on the State of the Union. That, of course, is not a fact, but it is possible that this is exactly Moscow’s price for supporting Lukashenka in this conflict.
Whether this is true or not may become clear after the next meeting between Lukashenko and Putin in Moscow. Yet this is precisely the scenario that the Kiev officer fears.
Dmitry Kuleba, as we showed above, is almost terrifying because of the invasion of the Russian army from the territory of Belarus. On the other hand, what prevented him from invading, having an already huge border with Ukraine?
However, Kiev’s statements here should not be taken into account yet: it is broadcast in its usual frame. The main question will be what the European Union will do in this development of events. Will comprehensive sanctions against Belarus be introduced if they see the country finally merging with the Russian Federation?
Ukraine’s position will ultimately depend on this.
