Coronavirus in September: what to expect from Ukrainians

The Cabinet of Ministers issued a formidable forecast: Already in September, Ukraine will have such a powerful increase in covid that the number of people needing hospitalization will triple.

Considering that local elections in Ukraine are scheduled for the end of October, their prospects with such unfolding events become illusory.

Understand the coronavirus threats from Prime Minister Denis Shmygal.

What authorities say about a new round of the disease

On September 1, Denis Shmygal expressed the assumption that by the beginning of October the daily increase in new coronavirus patients in Ukraine could grow to three thousand cases per day. The Prime Minister noted that this will burden hospitals by more than 80% (now 24% are charged on average in the country).

“Today we have 2 to 2,5 thousand illnesses every day. According to calculations and forecasts, by the end of September – beginning of October, this figure will increase to 3 thousand patients per day. This will burden hospitals by more than 80%”, said the prime minister.

In other words, Shmygal predicts that the number of critically ill patients needing hospitalization will triple in one month. If so, then this is a true explosion of the disease.

At the same time, Denis Shmygal promised not to introduce a strict quarantine, as in the spring. At least this applies to a business that has been idle and has suffered losses for months. The prime minister made such a statement on August 28. The official added that the government is preparing a “systemic recovery of economic activity” while the document is being prepared.

All in all, a bit of an odd discrepancy between apocalyptic predictions and promises not to tighten the screws. In addition, so far in the rules of the Cabinet of Ministers completely different is prescribed, for example, “red zones”, under which strict quarantine is returned.

The prime minister did not say the words “second wave”. And President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed the opinion in late August that Ukraine now continues to experience the first wave. According to Ze, in some areas the bed occupancy rate has already exceeded the 50% allowed. “If this continues, the medical system could malfunction,” Ze said.

However, the Ministry of Health is confident that this is the second wave.

“We think we would have the so-called second wave, that is, a significant increase in the number of patients, somewhere between October and November, and this would be associated with a seasonal flu epidemic.

The whole world thought that. The entire world believed that a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 patients would begin in the fall, somewhere from October to November. Now we see that all European countries also register a sharp increase in the number of patients with COVID-19, ”explained Ukraine’s Minister Maxim Stepanov against the covid registrations in Ukraine.

From his words, we can conclude that the second wave arrived earlier than expected.

Local authorities are also preparing for the second wave. For example, the mayor of Kiev, Vitali Klitschko, announced the preparation of assigned hospitals for a new round of the disease.

Among the popular deputies of the “Servant of the People” there are statements that the current epidemic situation in Ukraine is already the second wave of covid, although the WHO does not think so. This opinion was expressed by the people’s deputy Mikhail Radutsky. When asked what will happen to the quarantine in this case, the politician replied that it is unlikely that the Ukrainians will comply with it. And he added that “nobody wears masks and does not adhere to social distance.”

As for the WHO, a second coming of the coronavirus is really expected later than what the Ukrainian authorities predict, that is, in winter. At the same time, foreign experts point out that the second wave can be avoided.

The issue of the second wave of coronavirus is not only epidemiological, but also political. Local elections are scheduled for October 25. Mayors of the largest cities will also be elected. Previously, there was a rumor that they could be held at Ze’s with covid sauce, as Bankova is unsure of the success of her People’s Servant candidates on the field.

According to the latest data, there will be local elections. This was stated by Prime Minister Denis Shmygal. Today, many consider this choice the point from which the second wave of stricter quarantine will begin. As long as they are afraid to introduce it, so as not to irritate the electorate.

Second wave or first?

If you look at the scale of the growth of the coronavirus in Ukraine, then only one “wave” is visible on it – a gradual increase in incidence.

One could speak of a second or third wave if Ukraine could achieve a steady decrease in the number of cases. Then the wave would start again.

We do not observe anything of the kind. The disease shows a steady increase from May to August. We have already talked about the reasons for this: the government stopped the quarantine for socioeconomic indicators (unemployment, business losses). But the disease did not stop for that.

That is, we are dealing with a wave of covid growing in Ukraine. And the statements of the Ministry of Health, cited above, can be attributed to a kind of coquetry: they say, “we faced the first wave” and now, “together with all of Europe”, we are preparing to repel the second.

Let’s see what happened to the disease in the example from last August yesterday. There are several obvious trends:

one. The increase in the detection rate of the disease: the proportion of tests and patients detected. From 7-8% at the beginning of the month to 11-15% in the middle and end.

two. The growth of the tests: closer to the second half of the month, they increased to an average of 20 thousand per day. At the same time, the detection rate also increased. This means that the disease did not increase due to increased testing, but objectively.

3. That’s why there were already 12 anti-registrations in August (marked in bold in the table). There haven’t been that many in any month. Anti-registrations doubled the daily dynamics, from 1,271 to 2,481.

Date	New cases	Deceased	PCR tests
August 31	2 141	30	14 109 (15.1%)
August 30th	2 096	35	19 459 (10.7%)
August 29	2 481	41	22 469 (11%)
August 28	2 438	48	21 507 (11.3%)
August 27th	1974	49	20 730 (9.5%)
26 of August	1 670	36	15 800 (10.5)
August 25th	1 658	25	10 855 (15.2%)
August 24	1 799	22	9 350 (19.2%)
August 23rd	1987	27	15,275 (13%)
August 22nd	2 328	37	22 207 (10.4%)
August 21	2 106	2. 3	21 821 (9.6%)
20th of August	2 134	40	21 698 (9.8%)
August 19	1 967	28	19 591 (10%)
August 18th	1 616	27	15 120 (10.6)
17 of August	1 464	19	10,700 (13.6%)
August 16th	1 637	26	15 768 (10.3%)
August 15th	1 847	33	20 979 (8.8%)
August 14	1 732	19	18 917 (9.1%)
August 13	1 592	22	18,984 (8.3%)
August 12	1 433	19	19 380 (7.3%)
August 11	1 158	29	16 127 (7.1%)
August 10	1 008	25	10 083 (9.9%)
August 9	1 199	18	14 973 (8%)
August 8	1 489	27	19,327 (7.7%)
August 7th	1 453	33	18 410 (7.8%)
6th August	1 318	31	17 976 (7.3%)
August 5	1 271	24	17 519 (7.2%)
August 4th	1 061	26	14 140 (7.5%)
August 3rd	990	13	8,523 (11.6%)
August 2nd	1112	sixteen	12,403 (8.9%)
August 1	1 172	sixteen	16 860 (6.9%)

Will there be a covid explosion in September?

The main question now is: can we really expect the number of critical cases (that is, those requiring hospitalization) to triple? What Prime Minister Denis Shmygal said.

In August, the number of active cases of coronavirus increased from 30 to 60 thousand, that is, it doubled.

Let’s see what is the relationship between active and hospitalized.

In Kiev, for example, as of today, 8,950 people are sick with coronavirus. Hospitals in the capital have 798 beds. Currently, 9% of all patients are hospitalized.

Indicators across Ukraine are slightly higher. On August 28, the Ministry of Health announced the number of active patients, 56,963, of which 6,544 were hospitalized, 11.49%.

Let’s fix it: in Ukraine, the total number of cases is 8 to 9 times more than those lying in the hospital. This means that if there are three times as many hospitalizations in September, then the total number of coronavirus patients in the country will also triple in a month.

Broadly speaking, if there are now 60,000 active cases, then there will be 180,000. This means that there will be four thousand new cases of covid every day in September. This is clearly more than the prime minister was talking about: 3,000 infections a day.

Let’s try to estimate the “Shmygal calculations”, comparing September with last August.

Now anti-registration has stopped in 2,481 new cases.

Judging by the rate of development of the disease in August, the increase in anti-record days was from 200 to 300 people. That is, Ukraine in September may well reach the figure of 3,000 cases a day in two jumps, that is, only a couple of bursts are needed.

And in August there were, we recall, not a couple, but a dozen. If there is a comparable number of records in September, Ukraine this month may well exceed the figure of 4,000 infections a day. Which is more serious than Shmygal warned (but matches his own data on tripling the number of hospitalized).

All of this may raise the question of resuming strict quarantine even before local elections. At least in some regions. That in general casts doubts on the conduct of the elections.