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On May 14, the dollar fell by 3 kopecks and broke the psychological mark: the interbank bank closed at 26.66-26.68 UAH / $. In the cash market, average prices remained at yesterday’s level: for sale in the range of 26.90-27.0 UAH / $, for purchase – 26.55-26.70 UAH / $.
“At the box office it is very quiet. In the wholesale cash market, prices remain at UAH 26.78-26.83 / $. There is no significant demand for foreign exchange by the population. An average dollar bill costs 0.2% of the amount, “Country said” financial analyst Vasily Nevmerzhitsky.
Interbank was impressed again. Trading volume decreased from $ 170 million yesterday to $ 85 million. The main players did not notice in the market: neither the National Bank in the purchase of the dollar, nor NAK Naftogaz in the sale.
“Today’s non-monetary tender was conducted in a calm direction with moderate bank activity. Mainly there was a balance of supply and demand, because prices were stable all day,” said Oleg Kurinnoy, director of Dnepr from Credit Bank from Treasury Bank.
The cashless market was the exclusive property of exporters and importers; the banks showed no activity in buying the dollar for their position in foreign currency (in their own balance sheet). The proportion of speculative transactions was minimal, in the treasuries again complained about low commercial activity and small profits.
They say that the gradual elimination of quarantine restrictions does not translate into the financial activation of companies and individuals. Your transactions are at a minimum level, there are almost no movements in the accounts. Analysts are already talking about a new wave of banking and economic crisis in a few months.
“The revitalization of business is not felt, first of all, due to the low demand for goods and services. Many people do not have the means and the job, and those who do try to spend as little as possible, because they are not sure of the future. This also applies to the economy, countries in general and banks in particular, 20% of bank employees will soon be on the street, and if the National Bank starts cleaning the market for non-bank financial institutions, there will be closings there. The financial segment will collapse and we will have a new crisis. By the way, some already understand this and create / buy this Al financial companies to buy loan portfolios from banks, and win “, – said Vasily Nevmerzhitskiy.
Experts do not believe in the rapid recovery of the financial market and the economy, even after quarantine. After all, orders for manufacturers are reduced or reduced considerably due to a decrease in consumer demand for goods. There is nothing to pay, the economy is very slowly saturated with money.
Regardless of what the authorities say, commercial banks are afraid to lend to a business. They fear the worsening of the economic crisis, so they see the prerequisites. They fear a sharp rise in credit defaults, which our banking system experienced in 2014-2017, and which it has not yet coped with. Since 2018, the proportion of delinquent loans has decreased from 54.5 to 48.9%, but did not approach world levels (up to 10%).
“A roughly new crisis awaits everyone in late summer, early fall. And if COVID-19 incidence increases by then, the economy will be on the brink of decline. Therefore, the banking system will now be rebuilt. , reorganized and optimized, “believes Nevmerzhitsky.
Forex market activation is expected as big players appear in the auction. Treasurers continue to await new sales from Naftogaz, as well as new large portions of refinancing from Banco Nacional.
While this is not all, they do predict further gentle strengthening of the hryvnia. Tomorrow, in the interbank market, a working range of 26.63-26.65 UAH / $ is expected.
Previously, the “Country” understood why the dollar was falling.
We also report that the first gold plane since the beginning of the quarantine flies to Kiev, the buyers are politicians and businessmen.
