This weekend could get weird.
Although these regularly scheduled predictions are NOT for the purpose of gambling, it would be negligent not to be wary of bettors when it comes to betting on this card, given how potential it can be. Again, stay away.
Just look at the UFC Vegas 6 heavyweight main event between veterans Derrick Lewis and Aleksei Oleinik. Combined, the two have competed in more than 100 pro bouts and have legitimately seen everything when it comes to fighting. The only thing they did not treat was each other and there is really no telling what will happen as “The Black Beast” with “The Boa Constrictor.”
Sure, it’s a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, but seeing the unpredictable outcomes these two have produced in Lewis’ cage the now-finished finishes to Oleinik’s catch-your-grinding proposals to the bizarre field battles both men have taken part in, it’s really silly to even imagine if one has a grasp on how this is going to turn out.
Chris Weidman’s return to the middleweight division after an unfortunate one-off 205-pound is also a difficult battle to name. “The All-American” has a daunting task to deal with defeating Omari Akhmedov, unbeaten in six UFC appearances at 185 pounds, but also the first unranked opponent Weidman has faced in centuries. He is fierce against the elite, but could the lesser known Akhmedov handle it, right?
In another main event, Darren Stewart returns from a Cage Warriors outing to fight Maki Pitolo in a middleweight camp, Yana Kunitskaya faces Invicta FC bantamweight champion Julija Stoliarenko, and Beneil Dariush takes on Scott Holtzman in a 158-pound catch after Dariush came in pregnant on Friday.
What: UFC Vegas 6
Where: UFC APEX in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, August 8th. The entire event will be broadcast on ESPN +, with the pre-seven-fight starting points starting at 6 p.m. ET, and the five-fight main event starting at 9 p.m. ET.
Derrick Lewis Vs. Aleksei Oleinik
As unpredictable as this matchup is, here’s what we know:
- If this fight continues, Aleksei Oleinik is toast. Props to Oleinik for continuing to run his game in the 24th (!) Year as a pro, but even the most experienced standup specialists need to be aware of Derrick Lewis’ power. Do not expect Oleinik to play completely on his feet if he knows what is good for him.
- Only Lewis can submit. Even though Lewis has only been submitted once, he has weak points on the ground that can be exploited. However, it is the same story as Oleinik, quite the opposite. There will be openings for ground-and-pound if Lewis is smart; otherwise, treat that mat like a steaming grill.
- This could go the distance. As deftly as Lewis and Oleinik remove their opponents, there is a good chance they are so careful of each other the strength that we see a stablemate for five rounds. Sorry, someone had to say it.
With that information in hand, who to choose? Are you favorites for swangin ‘and bangin’ as Oleinik’s mystifying arsenal of entries? Oleinik has shown himself to be sensitive to some of the big punchers of the heavyweight division and Lewis fits that bill into a tee so he will eventually Oleinik back against the fence and end up with a flurry.
Choose: Lewis
Chris Weidman Vs. Omari Akhmedov
On paper, this seems like an ideal matchup for Chris Weidman’s return to middleweight. Omari Akhmedov has yet to find a finish at 185 pounds, so the hope for Weidman fans is that this matchup will mark the end of Weidman’s streak of KO loss. He is also closer to the kind of opponent that Weidman dominated on his rank up as opposed to the series of names of the killer he has seven straight years for.
That said, Akhmedov hits harder than his run of decisions shows. He is comfortable standing and acting, while also using his Sambo background to get the fight on the ground when he needs to. He is not an easy sign for anyone, including Weidman.
Akhmedov certainly does not have the same potential to explode as some of Weidman’s recent films, so that’s a good sign for him. And Weidman’s own wrongdoing remains potential. He was right there with Ronaldo Souza before losing in the third and his submission from Kelvin Gastelum was vintage Weidman. It is defense that has been the problem for the former champion.
Maybe I read too much into her recent results, but I can not shake the feeling that Akhmedov is better than people think and that he will be the next fighter to add Weidman to his list of finishes.
Choose: Akhmedov
Darren Stewart Vs. Maki Pitolo
Much of Darren Stewart’s game is based on remote control. If he can control the range, he can throw up most of the middle weights with his neat boxes. When he lets someone as dangerous as Maki Pitolo get near, it may be lights for him.
Pitolo the gift of it soon can generate terrible power. He runs from zero to 60 in the cutoff point and if Stewart does not step down early, Pitolo will add him to the high point. Every moment a more technical fighter like Stewart finds a glass cannon like Pitolo, it becomes a sink-as-swimming proposition and I think Stewart thrives here. His hands are smart enough that he has to consistently enter Pitolo and he also has the option to take in takedowns, which will surely frustrate ‘Coconut Bombz’.
Stewart’s octagonal experience helps a lot here and I see him finding a finish in the second or third round after he carried Pitolo down.
Choose: Stewart
Yana Kunitskaya vs. Julia Stoliarenko
As far as entertainment is concerned, the expectations for this are probably unreasonably high, given the heinous massacre in which Julija Stoliarenko was involved with Lisa Verzosa last March. But Yana Kunitskaya has shown that she has a penchant for striking high-volume field battles, so there’s a good chance these two will have a crowd-pleasing (hey, if there were an audience at the APEX) standup duel to put.
Stoliarenko is technical, but can also be so aggressive. She almost always comes forward when she throws, looking to both close the distance and immediately find a corner to land something heavy. This means that she does not shy away from harm, which could be her downfall, yet given Kunitskaya’s own striking acumen.
Clinch work is a key and even those who take advantage of it can draw on the scorecards. Stoliarenko’s lethal background gives her the edge here. That is not to mention Kunitskaya, who has much more experience against higher level competition. As talented as Stoliarenko is, she has not been tested against the likes of Cris Cyborg, Tonya Evinger, and Aspen Ladd, as Kunitskaya has.
I will go to Stoliarenko by close decision.
Choose: Stoliarenko
Beneil Dariush Vs. Scott Holtzman
By letting the unevenness of a veteran like Beneil Dariush lose weight, this is exactly the kind of opponent that Scott Holtzman should face at this stage of his career. “Hot Sauce” is in great shape, has a strong standup game, and has shown that he can handle a variety of styles. However, he is still up against someone with the mixture of KO power and submission skill that Dariush has.
I just feel like Dariush is the better all around fighter. Maybe Holtzman wrapped up Dariush’s takedowns and kept Dariush on the back foot with his deadly right winger. He could have the advantage later in the fight as well, as he has been a consistent executive third-round pick. But I love Dariush’s chances of making it to the end before it becomes a problem.
Dariush must get this one to the mat ASAP and work his magic there, and ground Holtzman until he finds an opening for a submission with a fight-end.
Choose: Dariush
Predecessors
Tim Means def. Laureano Staropoli
Kevin Holland def. Joaquin Buckley
Nasrat Haqparast def. Alex Munoz
Wellington Turman def. Andrew Sanchez
Justin Jaynes def. Gavin Tucker
Peter Barrett def. Youssef Zalal
Irwin Rivera def. Ali AlQaisi
