UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs. Ige begins Wednesday at 7 p.m. ET – 3 a.m. local time in Abu Dhabi – on ESPN and ESPN + with six preliminary bouts.
The main card starts at 10 p.m. ET, at 6 a.m. local time, with five bouts, including a featherweight main event between Calvin Kattar and Dan Ige.
In addition to the purses and over / unders, there are numerous ways to bet on an MMA fight, including the exact methods of winning, the accessories of the winning round, and whether the match will make a decision or end within distance.
As a result, after examining all the betting options, your typical UFC card can offer a substantial amount of actionable value.
See full betting projections for Wednesday’s UFC card, with analysis and picks for my Wednesday bets below.
UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs. Ige Moneyline projections and elections
Below you can find my fair odds money line projection for each of the 11 matches on Wednesday. In the next section, you will discover predictions for those fights to end within the distance, or for each fighter to win by decision, knockout or submission.
Based on the odds listed, relative to the crowd’s projection, there are eight potential money line plays for Wednesday, in six favorites and two underdogs.
However, two of those fighters, Abdul Razak Alhassan and Chris Fishgold, each came overweight and both were fined 20% of their combat portfolios. Losing weight isn’t necessarily indicative of poor performance: Fighters who lost weight are 43-43 since 2013, but Alhassan is also a firm favorite and hasn’t fought since 2018, while Fishgold has been gone for 13 months.
Fighters returning from a more significant layoff than a year earn less than 40% of the time in the UFC, so I can’t endorse the bets on either one, but I also don’t see enough line value to bet on the other side.
Jack shore It’s the biggest favorite of the week, but at -700, it’s not even worth including in parlays. However, there is likely a profitable way to play it in the props market, given its substantial win projection (96%).
Diana Belbita and Khamzat Chimaev are my two favorite bets and parlay pieces for Wednesday.
Belbita was overwhelmed in her UFC debut against Molly McCann, whom we will touch on in a moment, but she accomplished significant attacks at a relatively high volume (98 total); especially compared to her opponent Liana Jojua, who only hit 1.53 significant punches per minute in her own UFC debut. Belbita has a 3-inch height and 6-inch reach advantage at Jojua, and if she can keep the fight on her feet, she should be able to separate it from range.
Chimaev is making his UFC debut in the short term, which is problematic for two reasons: UFC rookies only win 43% of the time against UFC veterans, and late replacements win only 37% of the time (94- 158) in less than 10 days notice. However, he’s a quick starter, winning all six of his professional fights before the end of the second round, and he has a huge fighting lead against John Phillips, who looked like he had a challenging weight cut.
I’m going to play Belbita and Chimaev in the props market, and also paired the two together in a money line parlay.
Molly McCann (6.49 attacks per minute, 2.6 takedowns per 15 minutes) will probably provide too much pressure for Talia Santos to handle. McCann has won his last three fights, while Santos is looking for his first victory inside the octagon: He has a six-inch reach advantage, but McCann will look to stay in his pocket and push within his range as often as possible. .
I had initially planned to choose Calvin Kattar and Jimmy Rivera, but after delving into those two fights, I opted for both underdog, Dan Ige and Cody Stamann.
You can read more about Ige’s selection in my preview of the main event.
As for Stamann, the crowd’s projection makes him a slight favorite in this fight, even against a very tough opponent in Rivera who has only lost to the biggest bantamweight competition: champion Petr Yan, No. 1 Marlon Moraes and No. 2 contender Aljamain Sterling – in three of his last four fights.
Stamann has been leveling up against increasingly better enemies. Still, it has statistical advantages over Rivera in hitting accuracy (+ 9%), defense (+ 4%), differential (+1.34 to +0.22) and volume (+0.41 strokes per minute) – and better grip skills (3.34 takedowns for 15 minutes, 48% accuracy).
Rivera’s takedown defense (95%) is stable. He won the first part of his fight with Yan, maybe he is overlooked here, he is a small favorite, but Stamann has become an extremely effective point fighter, and he has the most versatile skill set in this fight, what it might be enough to influence. the judges if the bout goes to a decision.
Tim Elliott It is the only money line play I made for Saturday. She has lost her last three fights and four of her last five, but she recently received a contract extension and is heading a co-main event on Fight Island, which talks about how the UFC values her presence.
His opponent Ryan Benoit has only had one fight since 2017, with a negative hit differential (+0.88 to -0.38) and a lower grab skill set (64% takedown defense) compared to active Elliott (4.31 takedowns). for 15 minutes, 55% accuracy) offering multiple paths to victory.
Moneyline Betting
- Molly McCann -140 (1 unit)
- Cody Stamann +114 (0.5 units)
- Tim Elliott -130 (1 unit)
- Dan Ige +250 (0.5 units)
- Parlay: Diana Belbita / Khamzat Chimaev (-101, 1 unit)
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UFC Fight Island: Kattar vs. Ige Prop Projections and Picks
In addition to creating a crowdsourcing projection for money line plays, I also collect data on each fighter to win by decision, knockout, or submission, which also allows us to determine fair odds for each fight to go the distance:
Based on current money line and winning method projections, up to nine winning method bets offer value for Wednesday.
Because I have already played with Elliott and McCann on the money line, I am not going to play with them to also win by decision. I think both fighters offer a way to the end (through submission for Elliott and KO / TKO for McCann), but both bets offer value.
Also, I’m not going to play Fishgold to win by decision or Alhassan to win by KO / TKO at half their projected number, because, as I mentioned earlier, both fighters lost weight, and my level of concern only increases due to their lack of octagon activity.
Alhassan has recorded his 10 knockout wins in the first round, so Alhassan Round 1 (+110) might be a more attractive bet than backing him up to win by KO / TKO (-215), but I stay away entirely.
If Cody Stamann gets a win against Jimmy Rivera, he will appear on the scorecards: the public screening set those odds at -109, and Stamann appears at +180 – I divided a unit between Stamann’s money line and his support to win by decision.
Belbita also offers substantial value to win on scorecards. With odds of winning +150 per decision, compared to a crowd projection of -166, i.e. possibly the best bet of the night.
Chimaev’s odds of winning by submission line up with the betting market, and rounds below 1.5 have continued to decline for the fight, but his odds of winning in the first round (+130) have held steady in some places . I’ll back the Swede to win early in his UFC debut.
Lastly, Jack Shore offers courage to win by submission (-115) in the first fight of the night, relative to the crowd screening (-180). The prospect is 12-0 and he will hope to remain undefeated against Aaron Phillips, who returns to the UFC after a six-year absence, and Shore looks extremely likely to end this fight, which is -250 to end within the distance, like a – 715 (implicit 87.7%) favorite.
Bet Prop
- Jack Shore by Submission (-115, 0.5 units)
- Diana Belbita by Decision (+150, 0.5 units)
- Khamzat Chimaev wins in round 1 (+130, 0.5 units)
- Cody Stamann by Decision +180 (0.5 units)
[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]
